POST-NUCLEAR SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY MANUAL

Version: 1.0 Researched and compiled: 11 September 2026 Language: English (translated from the Russian original) Format: a single self-contained Markdown file, suitable for printing and offline reading Document type: a technical reference, not a work of fiction


SCOPE OF APPLICABILITY

This document is written for:

  • an adult with no specialist training (not a physician, not a physicist, not an engineer);
  • a large-scale nuclear war with multiple surface and air bursts;
  • the absence of the internet, mobile networks, and centralised power and water supply;
  • the absence, or only fragmentary functioning, of government structures;
  • a person living in an ordinary flat or house, with no private bunker;
  • two states of the world: "the catastrophe has not happened yet" and "the catastrophe has already happened".

The document covers a horizon from the first 10 seconds out to 5 years.


LIMITATIONS (READ THIS BEFORE YOU TRUST THIS TEXT)

  1. This is not a substitute for professional help. As long as physicians, rescue services and civil-defence authorities exist, their instructions take priority over this document.
  2. The numbers depend on the scenario. Yield, burst height, weather, wind, soil type and building type change the outcome by orders of magnitude. Every number here is a reference point, not a guarantee.
  3. Geographical bias. Most of the verifiable primary sources are American (FEMA, CDC, EPA, FDA, USDA) and international (WHO, IAEA, ICRP, Sphere). Warning systems, emergency broadcast frequencies, the availability of potassium iodide, the contents of first-aid kits and the rules for storing medicines differ from country to country. Where advice is tied to a specific country, this is flagged.
  4. Dosimetry. This document does not make you a radiation-protection specialist. It gives you the minimum needed to avoid making a fatally wrong decision.
  5. Medicine. This document does not teach surgery, anaesthesia or drug synthesis. Attempts at complex surgery without training kill more often than they save.
  6. Legal and ethical questions (property, use of force) are not resolved here. Only the consequences for survival are stated.
  7. The author is a language model. The document was assembled from open sources and cross-checked against the list at the end. Errors are possible. Where the data are disputed, a confidence level and a range are given.
  8. Prohibited content. This document deliberately does not contain instructions for making explosives, mines, lethal traps, ammunition, chemical or biological weapons, or for synthesising drugs.

HOW TO USE THIS DOCUMENT

Situation Where to go
A flash/explosion right now "If you only have 5 minutes" → STAGE 4 → STAGE 5
Preparing in advance PART I (STAGE 2), then "MY NUCLEAR EMERGENCY PLAN"
A day has passed, I am sitting in shelter STAGES 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Water/food is running out STAGES 11, 12
Someone is injured STAGES 13, 14
Months have passed, life has to go on PARTS IV, VI, VII
I need to make a decision fast PART VIII (STAGES 41–46)

Notation used in the text:

  • ⛔ — a lethally dangerous action, never do it;
  • ⚠️ — a risk that requires judgement;
  • ✅ — a verified safe action;
  • Confidence: high / medium / low — how reliably the statement is supported.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  • IF YOU ONLY HAVE 5 MINUTES TO READ

PART I. PREPARATION BEFORE THE CATASTROPHE * STAGE 2. Preparation without a private bunker (2.1–2.25) * MY NUCLEAR EMERGENCY PLAN (printable template)

PART II. THE NUCLEAR EVENT * STAGE 3. Threat model * STAGE 4. The first 60 seconds * STAGE 5. The first hour * STAGE 6. The first 24 hours * STAGE 7. Radiation: units and instruments * STAGE 8. Radioactive fallout and its decay * STAGE 9. Decontamination * STAGE 10. Potassium iodide

PART III. BASIC SURVIVAL * STAGE 11. Water * STAGE 12. Food * STAGE 13. Medicine (incl. 13.16 — pregnancy, infants, the chronically ill) * STAGE 14. First-aid kit * STAGE 15. Sanitation * STAGE 16. Shelter * STAGE 17. Fire and heat * STAGE 18. Electricity * STAGE 19. Communications * STAGE 20. Navigation * STAGE 21. Transport

PART IV. RESOURCES AND SETTLEMENT * STAGE 22. Resource search * STAGE 23. Tools * STAGE 24. Agriculture * STAGE 25. Animals * STAGE 26. Food storage * STAGE 27. Clothing and textiles * STAGE 28. Weather and climate

PART V. HAZARDOUS SITES * STAGE 29. Fires * STAGE 30. Chemical hazards * STAGE 31. Nuclear power plants and radiation sources

PART VI. REBUILDING TECHNOLOGY * STAGE 32. Library of knowledge * STAGE 33. Technology tree (levels 0–7) * STAGE 34. Mechanics * STAGE 35. Water and wind power * STAGE 36. Solar power

PART VII. ORGANISING A SETTLEMENT * STAGE 37. Information system * STAGE 38. Organising the group * STAGE 39. Security * STAGE 40. Psychology

PART VIII. DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM * STAGE 41. Priorities * STAGE 42. Timeline * STAGE 43. Decision trees * STAGE 44. "What to look for" table * STAGE 45. "What not to do" table * STAGE 46. Myths

PART IX. QUALITY * The offline-first principle * Confidence levels: summary of disputed questions * Red-team report (4 roles) and consolidated list of corrections * Checking the numbers * Sources and bibliography (91 sources) * Conclusion

SEPARATELY PRINTABLE BLOCKS * "If you only have 5 minutes to read" * "My nuclear emergency plan" (template) * STAGE 4 "The first 60 seconds" * STAGE 43 "Decision trees" * STAGE 45 "What not to do"


IF YOU ONLY HAVE 5 MINUTES TO READ

These pages are the most important thing in the whole document. If you print nothing but these, you have already sharply improved your chances.

1. The three commands that save the most lives

GET INSIDE. STAY INSIDE. STAY TUNED. (The official FEMA/CDC formula.)

Mass death from radioactive fallout is largely preventable if people simply go into a suitable building and stay there for the first 24 hours. In LLNL modelling of a 10 kt detonation in a city: if everyone stays outside for 12 hours, roughly 280,000 people are affected by radiation; if everyone goes into shelter with a protection factor of 10, roughly 245,000 significant exposures are prevented.

2. You see a very bright flash

  1. DO NOT LOOK at the flash. Turn away, close your eyes, cover your face with your hands. The flash causes temporary (minutes to hours) blindness or, close in, permanent blindness.
  2. Lie face down immediately, feet towards the flash (head away from it). Hands under your body or under your head, mouth slightly open, ears covered. This position reduces the area exposed to the blast wave and the heat, and protects the head. ⚠️ If there is no time to turn around — just lie down, that matters more than the orientation.
  3. Take cover behind anything massive: a kerb, a wall, a ditch, an embankment, a post. Get away from windows and glass shopfronts.
  4. Wait for the blast wave. It arrives seconds to tens of seconds after the flash (roughly 3 seconds per kilometre — the speed of sound). It may be felt twice: the direct wave and the reflected one.
  5. Do not get up immediately — after the front passes there is a reverse airflow and falling debris. Allow 30–60 seconds.

3. The next 10–15 minutes are the most valuable of your life

After a surface burst, radioactive fallout begins to land at roughly 10–15 minutes and later in the area of the explosion (LLNL/FEMA estimate: "no sooner than 10–15 minutes"). Further downwind it arrives later, over hours.

What to do: get into the most protective building you can reach on foot, and move to the basement or to the core of the building.

Shelter priority (best to worst):

Location Rating
Basement/underground floor of a large concrete building, underground car park, metro, tunnel Excellent
Middle floors of a tall concrete/brick building, deep inside, away from windows and exterior walls Very good
Basement of an ordinary house (even a wooden one) Acceptable — the minimum adequate level by FEMA criteria
Core of a brick/concrete house on the ground floor, no windows Weak, but better than the street
Single-storey wooden/frame house with no basement Poor
A car Almost useless
Open ground Lethally dangerous

A car is not a fallout shelter. Do not "wait out" fallout in a vehicle if a building is available.

4. Do not run for your family in the first hours

This is one of the most common fatal mistakes. Driving to fetch a child through a fallout zone in the first hours can kill you both. Children at school or nursery, under a roof, are better protected than you are out on the street.

Agree on this in advance. See sections 2.14 and 2.15.

5. You were outside during fallout — decontamination

  1. Remove your outer layer of clothing before entering the living part of the shelter. This removes up to 90 % of the radioactive material (CDC).
  2. Remove it slowly, without shaking it sharply — so as not to raise dust into the air. Peel it off "inside out".
  3. Put the clothing into a bag or sack, tie it shut, and take it well away from people — another room, a corridor, outside the door.
  4. If you have water: a warm shower, plenty of soap, gently. Do not scrub until the skin is raw, do not use boiling water.
  5. Shampoo — yes, conditioner — no. Conditioner binds particles to the hair (CDC).
  6. If water is scarce: a wet wipe or cloth on exposed areas — face, neck, hands, ears, nostrils, around the eyes. Wounds and grazes must be covered before washing.
  7. If there is no water at all: brush yourself off and wipe down with a dry cloth — this already achieves a significant part of the effect (FEMA: "simply brushing particles off is effective for expedient decontamination").

6. The first 24 hours

  • Stay in the most protective place for at least 24 hours, unless fire, collapse or gas poisoning drives you out. FEMA: "do not self-evacuate earlier than 24 hours unless directed by the authorities"; the first 12 hours are especially critical.
  • The dose rate falls very fast: it drops by more than 80 % over the first 24 hours. The "7–10 rule": for every sevenfold increase in time, the dose rate falls by a factor of 10.
  • Drink only water from sealed containers, from pipes inside the building, from the water heater, or from the toilet cistern (not the bowl). Do not drink water collected outside after the explosion.
  • Food in sealed packaging (tins, glass jars, sealed pouches) is safe — wipe the packaging with a damp cloth and open it.

7. Five decisions that kill

⛔ Mistake Why it is fatal
Leaving good shelter "to take a look" in the first hours The dose rate outside in the first hours can be tens to hundreds of times higher than it will be after a day
Driving to fetch relatives through the fallout zone A car gives almost no protection; roads are jammed; you take the full dose and lose your shelter
Running a generator/barbecue/burner indoors Carbon monoxide (CO) kills quickly, with no colour and no smell
Drinking unknown open water Infectious diarrhoea in disasters kills more often than radiation does
Treating potassium iodide as "the anti-radiation pill" It protects only the thyroid and only against radioactive iodine

8. What radiation does NOT do

  • External exposure does not make you radioactive. An irradiated person is not a danger to those around them. What is dangerous is the dust on them — and that can simply be washed or brushed off.
  • Let people into the shelter. A person with dust on their clothing is not a threat — brush them down, change their clothes and let them in (a direct FEMA/LLNL recommendation).
  • The whole Earth does not become radioactive forever. The dangerous zone shrinks several-fold in the first days: according to FEMA, the "dangerous fallout" zone can shrink from 15–30 km to 2–3 km within a single day.

9. Order of priorities when everything happens at once

  1. Fire, collapse, suffocation, carbon monoxide — minutes.
  2. Massive bleeding, airway obstruction — minutes.
  3. Getting under cover from fallout — tens of minutes.
  4. Decontamination — the first hour.
  5. Warmth / hypothermia — hours.
  6. Water — 1–3 days.
  7. Sanitation and infection — days.
  8. Food — weeks.
  9. Power, communications, community — weeks to months.

10. Three things to buy before the catastrophe if money is short

  1. A stock of water (and the means to disinfect it) — the cheapest and the most useful.
  2. An AM/FM radio receiver running on batteries or a hand crank + a stock of batteries.
  3. A torch + a first-aid kit + a 1–3 month supply of your personal medication.

A dosimeter is useful, but it is fourth in priority, and only if you understand its limits (see 2.11 and STAGE 7).


PART I. PREPARATION BEFORE THE CATASTROPHE

STAGE 2. PREPARATION WITHOUT A PRIVATE BUNKER

Baseline assumption

The realistic scenario for the overwhelming majority of people:

  • there is no private shelter and there never will be;
  • there is no country bunker;
  • you live in an ordinary flat or house;
  • during the day you are at work, on the road, in a shop, or driving the children somewhere;
  • the warning will be short (15–20 minutes for a missile strike) or there will be none at all;
  • there is no money for serious engineering work.

The central question: what can an ordinary person do in advance to significantly increase their probability of survival?

The central answer: do not build a bunker — know in advance where to go, what to take, and what you have agreed with your family. Knowledge and agreement cost almost nothing and deliver more than any equipment.


2.1. Do not start with a bunker

What to do

Forget the bunker. Start with an inventory of what already exists around you.

Why

A bunker is useless if:

  • you are not inside it at the moment of the strike (and you almost certainly will not be);
  • it is more than 10–15 minutes away on foot;
  • you cannot get in (locked, flooded, someone else's).

Protection from fallout gamma radiation comes from mass and distance, not from the word "bunker" on the door. An ordinary underground shopping-centre car park gives better protection than many "special" structures in poor repair.

Comparative assessment of shelter types

The numbers below are dose reduction factors (protection factors, PF) from the official FEMA guide Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation, 3rd ed. (2022) and from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory materials (LLNL, Brooke Buddemeier). PF = 10 means a person receives 1/10 of the dose of someone out in the open. These are order-of-magnitude estimates for typical buildings, not rated characteristics of your specific building.

Confidence: high for the orders of magnitude; Confidence: low for the exact value in any particular building.

Shelter type Typical PF Comment
Open ground 1 Baseline. Lethally dangerous in a fallout zone
A car 1–2 FEMA is explicit: "not adequate shelter". Glass and thin metal barely attenuate gamma radiation
Single-storey wooden/frame house, ground floor 2–4 FEMA: "inadequate shelter" in a dangerous fallout zone
Flat in a panel/brick building, room against an exterior wall with a window ~3–10 Depends heavily on the floor and the wall thickness
Basement of a single-storey wooden house ~10 FEMA/LLNL consider this minimally adequate
Basement of a brick/concrete private house 10–20 Good
Middle floors of a large multi-storey building, deep inside (the building core) 20–100+ Very good. Both the mass of the walls and the distance from the contaminated roof and ground work for you
Underground car park ~100+ Very good: a concrete slab plus soil
Basement/lower ground floor of a large multi-storey building ~100–250 One of the best places available. FEMA/LLNL: the basement of a 3-storey building gives a 200–300-fold dose reduction
Deep metro, road or rail tunnel Very high (hundreds) Excellent against radiation. Risks: flooding, no ventilation, crowding, inability to get out
Purpose-built fallout shelter By design, usually ≥ 40–100 The best of all, if you get into it and it has been maintained

What you need to understand about the metro and tunnels

The metro gives excellent protection against gamma radiation, but:

  • ⚠️ metro ventilation is forced — when power fails the air stagnates, CO2 and humidity rise;
  • ⚠️ flooding is possible if the pumps fail (many metro systems pump out groundwater continuously);
  • ⚠️ with large crowds — crush injuries, heat stress, epidemic risk;
  • ⚠️ the exit may be blocked by debris.

Conclusion: the metro is an excellent shelter for hours to a day, a doubtful one for weeks.

What you need to understand about underground car parks

Excellent protection by mass, but:

  • ⚠️ hundreds of cars = hundreds of litres of petrol and tens of litres of engine oil;
  • ⚠️ electric and hybrid vehicles = lithium-ion batteries which, when damaged, burn while releasing hydrogen fluoride and cannot be put out by ordinary means;
  • ⚠️ supply-and-extract ventilation will shut down along with the electricity;
  • ⚠️ the exit may be blocked by an automatic barrier with no power.

Conclusion: an excellent shelter, provided you settle well away from the cars, close to the stairwell, and know a second way out.


2.2. A map of shelters

What to do

Over one or two weekends, walk the area around your home and around your workplace and compile a table of shelters. This is the cheapest and probably the most useful single action in the whole of preparation.

Look for sites with these features:

  1. An underground level — car park, basement, lower ground floor, plant floor, root cellar, civil-defence protective structure.
  2. Massive construction — monolithic reinforced concrete, solid brick, stone, concrete panels.
  3. Large volume — the bigger the building, the further you can get from the exterior walls and the roof.
  4. Round-the-clock accessibility — an entrance hall, a lobby, a car park with a permanently open entrance.

Types of site worth checking:

  • official civil-defence protective structures (signage, lists held by the local administration);
  • basements of apartment blocks;
  • underground car parks of residential complexes and shopping centres;
  • metro stations and passageways;
  • road and pedestrian tunnels;
  • large shopping complexes (concrete frame, underground levels);
  • universities and institutes (permanent buildings, often with basements and laboratory blocks);
  • hospitals (permanent construction, but overcrowded in wartime — see the risks);
  • administrative buildings, courts, banks (thick walls, vaults);
  • industrial buildings, grain elevators, concrete warehouses, cold stores;
  • pumping stations, substations, works shelters attached to enterprises.

Shelter table template

Print it and fill it in by hand. One copy in your wallet, one at home, one at work.

Name/address Coordinates On foot, min By bicycle, min Construction material Underground level Accessibility Water on site Fire risks Alternative exit Notes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

How to fill in the columns:

  • Time on foot — measure it for real, on your own feet, not from a map. Reckon 4–5 km/h on level ground, 3 km/h over rubble and stairs, 2 km/h with children or a load.
  • Material — monolithic / brick / panel / glass-clad frame / timber. A glass façade is a major minus.
  • Underground level — the main plus. Note exactly how to get down there.
  • Accessibility — if the door is locked, note who opens it and whether there is an alternative.
  • Water — taps, water heaters, fire mains, coolers, retail outlets.
  • Fire risks — a filling station nearby, a gas boiler house, a flammable-liquids store, an underground car park, timber-built surroundings.
  • Alternative exit — you must be able to leave if the shelter catches fire or starts to collapse.

What else to record

  • Whether there is a toilet and drainage.
  • Whether there is emergency lighting.
  • Where the nearest body of water, standpipe or borehole is.
  • Who is normally there (security, staff) — you will have to come to an arrangement with them.
  • Where the gas supply enters and how to shut it off.

2.3. Three shelters for every place

What to do

For every place where you regularly spend time, identify three shelters.

  • Primary — the best in terms of protection, reachable in ≤ 10 minutes on foot.
  • Backup — slightly worse, but in a different direction (in case of fire, collapse, or a crowd on the way to the primary one).
  • Emergency — somewhere you can reach in 1–3 minutes, even if it is mediocre.

"A poor shelter now" beats "a good shelter in 20 minutes under fallout".

Table (fill in beforehand)

Place Primary shelter Min Backup Min Emergency Min
Home
Work
Child's school/nursery
Shopping area I use
Regular route, section 1
Regular route, section 2
Parents' house / country house

The 10-minute rule

If a shelter is more than 10–15 minutes away on foot — it is not a shelter for you, it is a second-day objective. Look closer to home.


2.4. Routes

What to do

For each "where I am → where I am going" transition, identify two or three routes and walk them on foot at least once.

What to allow for when planning

Obstacle Consequence Way around it
Destroyed/blocked roads A car is useless Walking routes through courtyards
Traffic jams, abandoned cars The carriageway is completely blocked Pavements, courtyards, parks, cycle lanes, embankments
Fires Smoke, CO, thermal radiation, impassability A route on the upwind side
Façade collapse Death from falling debris Walk down the middle of the street, not along the walls
Downed power lines and overhead contact wires Electrocution (power can be fed from generators even when the grid is "off") Treat every fallen cable as live
Broken glass Punctured footwear, cuts, loss of mobility Sturdy thick-soled shoes are mandatory
Bridges and flyovers May be destroyed or jammed Know an alternative crossing in advance
Locked buildings Your "shelter" may turn out to be locked Have two spares
Crowds Crushing, loss of direction, having your things taken Side streets

About cars after a detonation

⚠️ Do not assume a car is the best transport. After a nuclear strike on a city:

  • roads are jammed with abandoned and wrecked vehicles;
  • traffic lights are out, junctions are blocked;
  • debris and glass shred tyres;
  • a car gives PF ≈ 1–2, i.e. it barely protects at all;
  • an electromagnetic pulse may damage the electronics of modern cars. FEMA states directly that the mechanism and scale of EMP from a surface burst are "poorly understood"; for a high-altitude burst the effect is significant and covers vast areas.

Confidence: medium regarding EMP effects on cars — experimental data are limited and contradictory.

Conclusion: in the first hours, go on foot to the nearest good shelter. A car is a second- or third-day tool for getting out of the zone, once the route is known and the dose rate has fallen.


2.5. The best place inside your own home

What to do

Today, identify one specific point in your home — not "somewhere in the hallway", but the specific spot where you will lay out a mattress.

Selection algorithm

  1. Is there a basement or cellar? → That is your place. The corner furthest from the exterior walls, under a structural slab.
  2. No basement, but an underground car park under the building? → That is your place (but see the fire risks in 2.1).
  3. An apartment block? → Look for a space: * with no windows (hallway, bathroom, storeroom, walk-in wardrobe); * in the interior of the flat, as far as possible from the exterior walls; * not on the top floor and not on the ground floor — the top floor collects radiation from fallout on the roof, the ground floor from fallout on the surrounding ground; * ideally — the middle floors of a tall building, in the building core (inner corridor, stair-and-lift core, windowless refuse-chute room).
  4. A detached house with no basement? → The central windowless room on the ground floor; add mass on top of that (see 2.6). If there is a root cellar, an inspection pit in the garage, or a dugout nearby, they are better than the house.

Why mass and distance decide everything

Gamma radiation is attenuated exponentially as it passes through matter. The governing parameter is areal density (mass per square metre), not thickness as such.

Halving thicknesses for fallout gamma radiation (typical effective energy of the order of 0.7 MeV). Each such layer reduces the intensity by roughly half:

Material Halving thickness (indicative)
Lead ~1 cm
Steel ~2–2.5 cm
Concrete ~5–6 cm
Brickwork ~6–7 cm
Compacted earth ~8–9 cm
Water ~12–13 cm
Timber ~25–30 cm

Confidence: medium — the values depend on gamma energy and on the mix of nuclides; different civil-defence manuals give figures differing by 10–30 %. The order of magnitude is stable.

Practical conclusion: 5 halving layers = a 32-fold reduction; 7 layers = 128-fold. By simple arithmetic: 30 cm of concrete ≈ 5.5 layers ≈ a 40-fold reduction; 45 cm of brick ≈ 7 layers ≈ 100-fold; 60 cm of tightly packed earth ≈ 7 layers ≈ 100–130-fold.

⚠️ Correction for scattering. The simple "halving layers" calculation overstates the real protection: some gamma quanta are not absorbed but scattered within the material and still reach you (the buildup effect). For thick shields the real attenuation can be 2–5 times worse than calculated. This is why all the tabulated protection factors (PF) in this document are empirical, measured for real buildings, rather than computed from layers.

Confidence: high that the simple calculation overstates protection; Confidence: medium as to the size of the correction.

Distance works for free. Fallout lies on the ground and on the roof. If you are in the middle of a 10-storey building on the 5th floor, there are 5 floor slabs between you and the roof, 5 between you and the ground, and tens of metres horizontally to the nearest contaminated horizontal surface. That is exactly why "the core of a large building" is so effective even without a basement.


2.6. Improving an ordinary room

What to do

Increase the mass between you and the external surfaces (walls, windows, ceiling, floor) by safe means.

Category 1: safe, do it without hesitation ✅

Measure Effect Comment
Move into a windowless room in the centre of the flat Large Free, instant
Fill doorways and windows with tightly packed books, boxes of paper, crates of earth/sand — against the wall, on the floor, at body height Medium–large Books are an excellent available shield: the density of tightly packed paper is ~0.8–1.0 g/cm³, close to water
Put a full wardrobe or chest of drawers, packed with clothes and books, against the exterior wall Medium It also catches glass fragments
Place water containers around your sleeping place (jerrycans, bottles, buckets, a bath as a "wall") Medium Water = shield + drinking reserve
Mattresses, carpets and blankets folded in several layers around and on top of a low, sturdy structure Small–medium Low density, but good at stopping beta radiation and dust
Tape up gaps around windows and doors with tape and plastic sheeting Small against gamma, noticeable against dust Reduces the ingress of radioactive dust
Sleep on the floor rather than in a bed Small Lower centre of mass, further from windows
Hang heavy blankets over the windows Small against gamma Protection from fragments and from thermal flash in repeat detonations

Category 2: requires engineering judgement ⚠️

Measure Hazard What to assess
Piling earth/sand on the slab above the shelter or on the shelter floor Slab collapse A 10 cm layer of soil = ~150–180 kg/m². A typical residential slab is rated for an imposed load of the order of 150–200 kg/m²
Sandbags on a balcony/loggia Collapse of the balcony slab A balcony is a cantilever; loading it is critical
Water containers on upper floors / mezzanines Collapse, flooding, falling 1 m³ of water = 1000 kg
Building internal walls out of blocks Point loading on the slab Requires calculation, or spreading the load, closer to load-bearing walls
Sheltering in an underground car park Fire (fuel + lithium batteries), CO, no ventilation Is there a second exit and are there extinguishers
Using a loft filled with earth Roof collapse The roof truss is not designed for it

Load safety rule: Confidence: medium — a typical residential intermediate floor slab is rated for an imposed load of the order of 150–200 kg/m² (codes differ by country and by year of construction). Do not add more than ~100 kg/m² without a calculation; place the load closer to load-bearing walls rather than in mid-span.

Category 3: dangerous, do not do it ⛔

Measure Why it is dangerous
Completely sealing a room with no air supply Death from CO2 accumulation. Practical benchmark: with a small room (~10 m³) per person fully sealed, the air becomes unfit within a few hours
Blocking up the only exit Fire or collapse turns the shelter into a trap
Building "canopies" from heavy slabs on improvised supports Collapse onto the occupants
Placing heavy objects overhead Falling during repeat detonations or shaking
Putting candles/burners next to paper and fabric shielding Fire in a confined space
Switching off the extract ventilation while burning something inside Carbon monoxide
Sealing ventilation ducts shut for a long period CO2, damp, mould

Ventilation: the minimum numbers

  • An adult at rest consumes roughly 0.3–0.5 m³ of oxygen per day and exhales a comparable volume of CO2.
  • The danger comes not from lack of oxygen but from CO2 accumulation: above about 2 % concentration, breathlessness and headache appear; above about 5 %, pronounced poisoning; above 7–10 %, loss of consciousness.
  • Practical benchmark: no less than 3–5 m³ of fresh air per person per hour for normal well-being; the absolute survival minimum is lower, but you cannot rely on it.

Confidence: medium — the specific values depend on activity, temperature and room volume.

Practical solution: keep the air supply minimal but non-zero. An interior door left ajar to the next room, a working ventilation duct, the gap under the door to the stairwell. Radioactive dust can be filtered by cloth; CO2 cannot.

A simple improvised supply-air filter

If you have to admit outside air during fallout:

  1. Air supply through one controlled opening only.
  2. Over that opening — 3–5 layers of dense fabric (a sheet, a towel), preferably slightly damp, or a domestic HEPA filter / vacuum-cleaner filter.
  3. Put the filter on the outside of the opening, so that the trapped dust stays outside the room.
  4. Replace the filter periodically, working in a respirator and gloves, and dispose of the old one in a bag.

⚠️ This reduces the ingress of dust, but it does not reduce the gamma field from fallout outside.

Priority of actions given a short warning (15 minutes)

  1. Get into a windowless room in the centre of the building, or into the basement (30 seconds).
  2. Bring water and food there (3 minutes).
  3. Drag in mattresses, books, water containers (5 minutes).
  4. Close the doors, switch off the supply ventilation and the air conditioning, shut off the gas (1 minute).
  5. Fill every container, the bath and the pans with water (in parallel).
  6. Lie down and wait.

Do not try to build anything complicated. Just get deeper into the mass.


2.7. Emergency kits

Three kits, because you do not know where the event will find you.

HOME KIT (home kit, 14 days)

Keep it in a bag or container next to your chosen shelter in the house, not in a cupboard in another room.

Water and water treatment

Item Quantity Practical value
Drinking water in containers 3–4 l/person/day × 14 days (≥ 45–55 l per person) Ready.gov: a minimum of 1 gallon (≈3.8 l) per person per day, a two-week supply at home. See 2.8
Containers for additional water (jerrycans, churns, collapsible tanks) 2–3 of 10–20 l To draw water from the pipes/water heater before the pressure drops
Disinfection tablets/drops (NaDCC, chlorine dioxide, hypochlorite) For 200+ litres Disinfection once the stored supply runs out
Household bleach with no fragrance or additives (sodium hypochlorite 5–9 %) 1 l Cheap; disinfects water and surfaces. Shelf life is limited — see 2.22
Mechanical filter (0.1–0.2 µm, ceramic or hollow fibre) 1 Removes bacteria and protozoa. Does not remove viruses or dissolved substances
Coffee filters / dense cloth / gauze a pack Pre-clarification of turbid water — critical before chlorination

Food

Item Practical value
Tinned food (meat, fish, beans, vegetables, pâté) Ready to eat, needs no water and no fuel
Quick-cooking grains, flakes, muesli Calories with minimal cooking
Powdered milk, protein powder Long-storing protein
Nuts, dried fruit, chocolate, bars Dense calories, morale support
Vegetable oil, clarified butter 9 kcal/g — the densest energy source
Salt, sugar, spices, stock cubes Electrolytes, and making monotonous food edible
A manual tin opener (2 of them) Without one, the tins are useless
Baby food, formula If you have children
Pet food See 2.16

Medicines and medical supplies

Item Practical value
Personal prescription medicines A 30–90 day supply. The most important thing in the kit for anyone with a chronic condition
First-aid kit (see STAGE 14) Injuries are inevitable
Potassium iodide (KI), if permitted and available in your country Thyroid protection only, see STAGE 10
Oral rehydration salts (ORS) Diarrhoea and dehydration are the main killers in disasters
Thermometer Monitoring infection

Light, power, communications

Item Practical value
AM/FM radio receiver with battery and hand-crank (dynamo) power The most likely source of information. AM/medium wave carries further than FM, especially at night
LED torches, 2–3 of them, one head torch A head torch frees your hands
Batteries (AA, AAA) — at least 3 sets per device Endurance. Store them separately from the devices
Power bank 10,000–20,000 mAh, charged The phone as map, torch, and document archive
Folding solar panel 10–30 W with USB Renewable power for small electronics
Candles + matches/lighters in sealed packaging ⚠️ Candles are a fire risk and consume oxygen. Torches take priority

Protection, hygiene, tools

Item Practical value
FFP2/FFP3 (N95/N99) class respirators Reduce the inhalation of dust carrying radionuclides. ⛔ They do not protect against gamma radiation
Sealed-type safety goggles Dust, fragments, wind
Work gloves + nitrile gloves Cuts, infection, contact with contamination
Raincoat/cape, overshoes Easy to take off along with the contamination
Heavy-duty rubbish bags, 30–50 Isolating contaminated clothing, toilet use, waterproofing, collecting water
Reinforced (duct) tape, 2–3 rolls Sealing, repairs, fastening
Polythene sheeting, 10–20 m² Sealing windows, covering possessions, collecting rain
Wet wipes, soap, shampoo (⛔ no conditioner) Decontamination and hygiene
Toilet paper, sanitary products, nappies Sanitation
A lidded bucket + bags + absorbent (sawdust, ash, cat litter) Emergency toilet
Hand sanitiser gel (alcohol ≥ 60 %) Prevention of intestinal infections
Multi-tool, knife Versatility
Handsaw, crowbar/nail puller, adjustable spanner Clearing debris, shutting off gas and water
Rope/paracord 20–30 m Versatility
Thick-soled work boots Broken glass is a mass-casualty injury after a blast
Warm clothing, hat, sleeping bag/blankets Hypothermia kills even in summer in wet clothes
A change of clothing in a sealed bag "Clean" clothing after decontamination
Fire extinguisher (ABC dry powder) Fire is the number one competing risk

Information and documents

Item Practical value
Paper maps of the city and region GPS may not work, the phone may go flat
Notebook + pencils (⚠️ not only pens — they freeze and run out) Dosimetry log, inventory, messages
Copies of documents (passport, insurance, proof of ownership) in a waterproof bag + on a USB stick Restoring your status, access to assistance
A contact list on paper The phone's memory is unavailable without the phone
Cash in small denominations For the first days and weeks cards will not work
Photographs of family members Finding people who are lost
A printout of this document (minimum: "5 minutes", STAGES 4–14, 43–46) You will not remember everything under stress

Dosimetry

Item Practical value
A dosimeter/radiometer with an upper dose-rate limit of at least 100 mSv/h (10 R/h), preferably 1 Sv/h The only way to know where it is dangerous. See 2.11
A personal cumulative dosimeter Tracking accumulated dose

WORK KIT (workplace kit)

A small 5–8 kg bag or rucksack under the desk or in a locker. The aim is to survive 24–72 hours at work, or to walk home.

Item Why
2–3 l of water + a disinfection agent Office water may run out or become contaminated
Two days' food (bars, nuts, tinned food) Office kitchens will be stripped within hours
Trainers/boots and socks You will not walk 15 km over broken glass in office shoes
Heavy trousers, jacket, hat, gloves Skin protection, warmth
FFP2/FFP3 respirator, goggles Dust
Head torch + batteries Stairwells without light
Power bank Communications and maps
Small AM/FM radio receiver Information
Mini first-aid kit + 3–7 days of personal medication Injuries
A paper map of the area around work, with shelters and routes home Planning
Cash Everything
Whistle Signalling from under rubble. Shouting gives out within minutes, a whistle does not
Rubbish bags, tape Decontamination, sealing
Multi-tool Versatility

MOBILE KIT (pocket/everyday)

What is with you always, even when you have just gone out for bread.

Item Why
Phone + a small power bank Communications, torch, maps, archive
Small torch (keyring) Darkness arrives instantly when the power goes
A folding FFP2 respirator in your pocket 30 seconds to put on, months of storage
A small knife or multi-tool Versatility
Cash Card terminals will not work
A card with the plan: 3 shelters × 3 places + contacts + the family rendezvous point You will forget under stress
A 0.5 l bottle of water The first hours
Critically important personal medication (insulin, inhaler, nitrates, anticonvulsants) Life
A whistle on your keys Signalling

2.8. Water in advance

What to do

Build up a stock of drinking water and, separately, of non-potable utility water.

How much

Standard Value Source/comment
Absolute survival minimum (drinking) 2–3 l/person/day in a temperate climate Physiological minimum
Recommendation for a household store ~4 l (1 gallon) per person per day Ready.gov / American Red Cross; includes drinking and minimal cooking
WHO minimum in an emergency 7.5 l/person/day covers the needs of most people in most conditions WHO
Sphere standard (humanitarian operations) 15 l/person/day — drinking, cooking, personal hygiene Sphere Handbook 2018
WHO recommendation allowing for hygiene ~20 l/person/day WHO

Confidence: high — the spread between 7.5 / 15 / 20 l is explained by different coverage: physiology alone versus physiology + hygiene + cooking.

Practical conclusion: 4 l/person/day for drinking and cooking is the working household minimum. Everything above that, up to 15 l, is hygiene — which starts to decide outcomes after 5–10 days (infections).

Corrections

Factor Correction
Heat above +30 °C, physical work ×2 or more (up to 6–10 l/day for drinking alone)
Cold The requirement does not fall: dry air, respiration, absence of the sensation of thirst. Dehydration in winter is a classic mistake
Altitude above 2000 m +1–1.5 l/day
Children Less in absolute terms, but they dehydrate much faster
Pregnant and breastfeeding women +0.7–1.5 l/day
The elderly A weak sense of thirst — intake has to be enforced deliberately
Patients with diarrhoea/vomiting/fever Sharply more + ORS
A medium-sized dog ~50 ml per kg of body mass per day (≈ 1–1.5 l)
A cat ~50 ml per kg of body mass per day (≈ 200–300 ml)
Taking medication Some medicines require copious fluids

Target stock

Horizon Drinking water per person
Minimum (3 days) 12 l
Basic (14 days) 55 l
Good (30 days) 120 l
Plus utility water A filled bath ≈ 150–200 l, a water heater 50–100 l, toilet cisterns at 6–9 l each

Storage and rotation

What to do:

  • Commercially bottled water in its factory seal — store in a dark, cool place; rotate once every 1–2 years by the date on the label.
  • Tap water you have bottled yourself: only in food-grade containers (HDPE/PET marking), thoroughly washed; change it every 6 months.
  • Keep containers off a concrete floor directly (put a board underneath) and away from petrol, solvents and pesticides — plastic lets vapours through.
  • Split the stock across several 5–20 l containers: one large one is a single point of failure.
  • Write the filling date on it with a marker.

What not to do:

  • Never use jerrycans that have held fuel, chemicals or household chemicals — never.
  • Do not store water in sunlight (microbial growth, plastic degradation).
  • Do not rely on a filter jug alone: it does not build a store.

What to do in 5 minutes when a warning comes

  1. Fill the bath, every pan, bucket and bottle.
  2. Fill the washing machine (it holds water).
  3. Shut off the water inlet to the flat after filling — then the water in the riser pipes and the water heater stays available and will not be contaminated if the main loses pressure.
  4. Do not flush the toilet cisterns.

Hidden sources of water in the home (in order of quality)

  1. The water heater/boiler — 50–100 l of clean water. Drain via the bottom valve. ⚠️ Disconnect the power/gas first, otherwise the element will burn out; let it cool.
  2. The riser pipes — open a tap on the top floor (to admit air) and drain from a lower one.
  3. Toilet cisterns (not the bowl!) — provided no scented tablets are used.
  4. Ice cubes, juices, tinned vegetables (brine), stewed fruit.
  5. The heating system — ⛔ utility water only: it contains corrosion inhibitors, corrosion products, and sometimes antifreeze. Do not drink it.
  6. The aquarium — utility water; requires disinfection and filtration.

2.9. Food in advance

What to do

Build a stock of food that needs no refrigerator, no large quantity of water, no complex cooking and no fuel.

Selection criteria

Criterion Why it matters
Calories per kg You can only carry a limited weight
Calories per litre of volume Space in a flat is limited
Protein Without protein the body breaks down muscle; wound healing stops
Water for cooking Water is dearer than food in the first weeks
Fuel for cooking Fuel is finite and dangerous indoors
Shelf life Annual rotation is work
Cost per calorie The budget is limited
Psychological tolerability Monotonous, unpalatable food does not get eaten; people starve with a full larder
Product kcal/100 g Protein Shelf life Water to cook Note
Vegetable oil ~900 0 1–2 years (dark, cool) none Maximum energy density. Goes rancid — rotate
Clarified butter / ghee ~880 0 1–2 years unrefrigerated none Resistant to rancidity
Sugar ~400 0 Practically unlimited if kept dry none Cheap, calories, a preservative
Honey ~300 0 Practically unlimited none Antibacterial properties, topical use on wounds
White rice ~360 7 g 10–30 years in sealed containers with an oxygen absorber a lot (1:2) ⚠️ Brown rice keeps only ~6 months (oil in the bran)
Whole wheat/rye grain ~340 11–13 g 10–30 years in sealed containers a lot You need a mill
Wheat flour ~340 10 g 6–12 months a lot Spoils quickly compared with whole grain
Pasta ~360 12 g 2–3 years a lot Convenient
Lentils, beans, peas (dried) ~340 22–25 g 5–10+ years a great deal, long boiling ⚠️ The main protein source. Lentils cook faster than beans
Rolled oats ~370 12 g 1–2 years little (soaked) Can be eaten soaked in cold water
Powdered milk ~490 26 g 2–5 years (skimmed keeps longer) little Calcium, protein, for children
Tinned meat/fish 150–350 15–25 g 2–5 years none ✅ Ideal for the first day. Eat straight from the tin
Tinned stewed meat ~220 15 g 2–5 years none Fat + protein
Tinned fish in oil ~250 20 g 2–4 years none Omega-3, vitamin D
Tinned vegetables 20–90 1–2 g 2–4 years none Vitamins, liquid, flavour
Nuts 550–700 15–25 g 6–12 months (longer when cold) none Go rancid — rotate
Peanut butter ~590 25 g 1–2 years none ✅ An excellent calorie/protein/convenience ratio
Dried fruit 250–350 2–3 g 1–2 years none Potassium, fibre, sugar
Dark chocolate ~550 6 g 1–2 years none Calories + morale
Hardtack/rusks ~400 10 g 1–3 years none Keeps a long time, dry
Salt 0 0 Unlimited Critical. Electrolytes, preserving, metabolism
Multivitamins 2–3 years Against scurvy and deficiencies on a monotonous diet

How much

Level Calories per day Duration Mass per person
Starvation minimum (weight loss, reduced capacity for work) 1200–1500
Maintenance at low activity 2000–2200
Physical work, cold 3000–4500
14-day store 2000 kcal/day 14 days ~8–12 kg
3-month store 2000 kcal/day 90 days ~50–70 kg
1-year store 2200 kcal/day 365 days ~250–350 kg

A practical "one year per person" scheme (simplified, on the model of classic long-term stores)

Category Mass per year
Grain (wheat, rice, oats, maize, pasta) 150–180 kg
Pulses 30–40 kg
Fats (oil) 12–20 kg
Sugar/honey 25–30 kg
Powdered milk 15–20 kg
Salt 4–5 kg
Tinned food, vitamins, seasonings as available

Confidence: medium — this is a reference point for calories and protein, not a dietetic standard. Such a ration needs supplementing with vitamins (especially A, C, D, B12) and fats.

Storage

✅ Cool (below +20 °C), dark, dry, airtight, protected from rodents. ✅ Grain and pulses — in metal or thick-walled plastic containers, preferably with an oxygen absorber. ✅ The FIFO rule: new to the back, old to the front; eat what you buy and buy what you eat. ⚠️ Every +10 °C roughly halves the shelf life of most products. ⛔ Do not store food next to fuel, paints or solvents.


2.10. Radio and communications

What to do

Buy a receiver that works without mains power and picks up AM (medium wave), not just FM.

Why AM matters more than FM

Band Range Characteristics
AM / MW (medium wave, 530–1710 kHz) Tens of km by day, hundreds to thousands of km at night (ionospheric reflection) The main civil-defence band in many countries. Powerful transmitters, simple receivers
FM / VHF (87.5–108 MHz) 30–80 km, line of sight Better quality, shorter range. The first to disappear when local masts are destroyed
SW (shortwave, 3–30 MHz) Thousands of km, intercontinental The only way to hear what is happening in the world. Requires a receiver with an SW band
LW (long wave, 148–283 kHz) Hundreds of km, robust Not used everywhere; in a number of countries broadcasting has been wound down

Recommendation: an AM/FM/SW receiver running on batteries and a hand-crank dynamo, preferably with a USB output and a solar panel. Such devices are inexpensive and replace three instruments.

Confidence: high on the propagation physics; Confidence: low as to what will actually be broadcasting in your region.

About warning systems

⚠️ Warning systems depend on the country. There is no universal "emergency frequency".

  • In the USA — EAS/IPAWS, NOAA Weather Radio (162.400–162.550 MHz), WEA cell broadcasts.
  • In Europe — EU-Alert/cell broadcast, national sirens, national radio.
  • In Russia and a number of CIS countries — the "Attention everyone!" sirens, after which you must switch on the wired radio outlet, a radio or a television; the all-Russian wired broadcasting network and VHF/FM channels.
  • In Japan — J-Alert.

What to do in advance:

  1. Find out which station in your city is designated as the emergency station and write the frequency down on paper, stuck to the receiver.
  2. Check whether your receiver picks up that station inside your flat (reception may disappear in a basement — you will need an external antenna).
  3. Write down 3–5 backup AM frequencies and 2–3 SW frequencies of major international broadcasters.
  4. If you have a wired radio outlet, check that it works.

The car radio

A good fallback: a powerful antenna, powered from the battery. ⚠️ But you must not listen to it while sitting in the car during fallout. Options: remove the receiver, or use the car as a power source for household equipment (see STAGE 18).

An AM antenna in a basement

AM reception in a reinforced-concrete basement is almost impossible. The solution: a long wire (10–20 m) run outside or into the stairwell, connected to the receiver's telescopic antenna (you can simply wind a few turns around it). ⚠️ Never run an antenna close to power lines.


2.11. A dosimeter

Is it worth buying one in advance?

Yes, if you understand what you are buying and get an instrument with a sufficient upper limit. No, if you buy a cheap "mushroom checker" and take its readings as truth in a fallout zone — that is a false sense of security, and it kills.

What an instrument must be able to do in a nuclear scenario

Parameter Requirement Why
Upper dose-rate limit At least 100 mSv/h (10 R/h), preferably 1–10 Sv/h For the "dangerous fallout" zone FEMA uses a boundary of 10 R/h (≈100 mSv/h); near ground zero in the first hours it can be above 100 R/h (1 Sv/h). A domestic instrument limited to 100 µSv/h is useless there
Dose-rate measurement (µSv/h, mSv/h) Mandatory Answers "how dangerous is it here right now"
Accumulated dose (µSv, mSv) Highly desirable Answers "how much have I already received"
Detector type See below Determines the range and sensitivity
Power Ordinary batteries (AA/AAA), not only a built-in cell Months of endurance
Threshold alarm Desirable You will not be watching the screen constantly
Calibration A certificate and energy compensation Without compensation the error is several-fold

Detector types

Type What is good What is bad
Geiger–Müller (GM) counter — the most common Cheap, reliable, wide range, distinguishes beta with the window open In very high fields it saturates: dead time makes the instrument read lower and lower as the field rises, all the way to zero. Poor energy response in cheap models
Scintillation (NaI, CsI, plastic) Very sensitive, finds weak sources, can identify isotopes (spectrometers) Expensive, easily swamped at high levels, usually a low upper limit
Semiconductor (silicon diode) Compact, economical, wide dynamic range, used in modern personal dosimeters Lower sensitivity to weak fields
Direct-reading ionisation "pen" dosimeter (DKP-50 and equivalents) Needs no electronics and no power, works at high levels Needs a charger, discharges over time, coarse scale
Film/thermoluminescent (TLD) badges Cheap, accurate Show the dose only after laboratory processing — useless in real time

⚠️ THE MAIN WARNING: SATURATION

A Geiger counter in a very strong field may show a low value or zero — not because it is safe there, but because the tube has choked (the dead-time "folding back" effect). This has killed people in real accidents.

Rules:

  1. Know your instrument's upper limit by heart. Write it on the casing with a marker.
  2. If the instrument shows overload (OL, ---, flashing, a continuous trilling tone) — leave immediately; this is not "the instrument has broken".
  3. If the readings fall as you approach the source — that is a sign of saturation. Back away.
  4. A cheap instrument with no energy compensation can be wrong by a factor of 2–5 for soft gamma radiation.
  5. A dosimeter does not "see" alpha radiation and often sees beta poorly through the casing. No reading ≠ no contamination.
  6. Never use phone "dosimeter" apps based on the camera for life-and-death decisions. Their accuracy is extremely low.

What to buy (guidance)

Budget Option Limitations
Minimal A cheap domestic GM dosimeter with a limit of ~0.1–1 mSv/h Good only for "is there contamination or not" and for work after the first week. Useless in a fallout zone during the first day
Medium A personal electronic dosimeter with a limit ≥ 100 mSv/h, with dose accumulation and a threshold The optimal compromise
Good A professional radiometer-dosimeter with a limit ≥ 1–10 Sv/h + a separate personal cumulative dosimeter The best solution
Backup A set of direct-reading "pen" dosimeters with a charging unit Works without electronics; check that the charger is intact

Calibration

Instruments drift over time. If you can, have them checked every 1–2 years. A simple home functional check (not a calibration!): the instrument should read a natural background of about 0.05–0.30 µSv/h (the level depends on geology and altitude; it is higher in granite regions and in an aircraft). If it reads zero, the instrument is faulty.


2.12. Backup electricity

The goal

Not to "power the house", but to provide light, radio, phone, dosimeter and small medical equipment. That is tens of watts, not kilowatts.

Estimating the requirement

Load Power Hours per day Wh/day
LED torch/lamp 3–5 W 4 12–20
Radio receiver 0.5–2 W 6 3–12
Smartphone (charging) 10–20
Dosimeter <0.5 W 24 ~5
Oxygen concentrator (medical) 300–600 W a great deal
CPAP machine 30–90 W 8 250–700
Domestic refrigerator 100–200 W (cycling) 500–1500

Conclusion: basic needs are 30–60 Wh per day. That is one 10,000 mAh power bank (≈37 Wh) for a day or two, or a 20 W solar panel for a couple of hours of sun. Medical equipment changes the picture by an order of magnitude — calculate it separately.

Options

Solution Pros Cons Recommendation
Power bank 10–20 Ah Cheap, compact, safe Self-discharge, finite ✅ Essential. Keep it charged to 60–80 %
A stock of AA/AAA batteries (alkaline) Keep 5–10 years, cheap Single use ✅ Essential
Lithium AA batteries (Li-FeS2) Keep 15–20 years, work in the cold More expensive ✅ For critical instruments
Low-self-discharge NiMH cells + USB charger Rechargeable Need charging ✅ A good supplement
Solar panel 20–100 W + controller Renewable Depends on weather and season; in winter at high latitudes output falls by a factor of 5–10 ✅ The best long-term solution
Car battery (lead-acid) + inverter Cheap, plenty of energy (12 V × 60 Ah ≈ 700 Wh) Heavy; ⚠️ degrades on deep discharge; ⚠️ gives off hydrogen while charging — needs ventilation ✅ With reservations
Traction/AGM deep-cycle battery Tolerates discharge to 50 % More expensive ✅ Better than a car battery
LiFePO4 battery Long-lived, safer than Li-ion, deep discharge Expensive ✅ The best option if the budget allows
A computer UPS Many people already have one, a ready-made inverter The battery is small (a few hundred Wh at most), designed for minutes ⚠️ As an inverter source, yes; as storage, no
Petrol/diesel generator Plenty of power ⛔ CO; the noise attracts people; fuel ages; needs oil and spares ⚠️ Outside the building only, ≥ 6 m (20 ft) from windows and doors
The car as a generator You already have it Fuel consumption is very inefficient for small loads ⚠️ A fallback

⛔ Critical prohibitions

  • Never run a generator indoors, in a garage, in a basement, on a balcony, or under a canopy. Not even with the windows open. CPSC/CDC: no closer than 20 feet (≈6 m) from the house, doors, windows and ventilation, with the exhaust pointing away from the building.
  • Never connect a generator to the house wiring through a socket ("backfeeding"). It kills linesmen on the network and you yourself when power is restored.
  • Do not charge damaged, swollen or punctured lithium-ion batteries. See STAGE 18.
  • ⚠️ Lead-acid batteries give off hydrogen while charging — it is explosive. Only in a ventilated place, with no sparks and no naked flame.

A minimum sensible set

  1. Two 10,000 mAh power banks.
  2. 40–60 AA/AAA batteries (alkaline + a few lithium).
  3. A 20–30 W solar panel with USB and a controller.
  4. A car USB adapter (12 V → 5 V).
  5. A universal cable set (USB-A, USB-C, micro-USB, Lightning).

2.13. Offline information

What to do

Assume there will never be internet again. Everything you are going to need must already be in your possession.

What to save

Category Specifically
Maps Topographic maps of the region (on paper!), a city plan, the metro map, a map of water bodies and wells, a relief map (to understand runoff and flooding)
Medicine A first-aid manual (for example the Red Cross guide), Where There Is No Doctor (Hesperian), Where There Is No Dentist, a drug reference with dosages, a reference on infectious diseases
Radiation safety This document; CDC/FEMA/IAEA materials on radiological emergencies; dose-rate decay tables
Equipment manuals Documentation for your dosimeter, generator, filter, inverter, heating appliance
Repairs and engineering An electrician's handbook, a plumber's handbook, the repair manual for your car, a welding handbook
Agriculture A vegetable-growing handbook for your climate zone, a sowing calendar, a handbook on storing the harvest
Botany An illustrated identification guide to the edible and poisonous plants and fungi of your region
Contacts and family Phone numbers and addresses of relatives, friends, doctors; blood groups; allergies; chronic diagnoses; medicines taken and their doses; insurance numbers; a photograph of every family member
Documents Scans of passports, certificates, title documents, diplomas

How to store it (three media — mandatory)

Medium Pros Cons What to put on it
Paper Needs no power, does not break, readable in the dark by torchlight, unaffected by EMP Bulk, weight, vulnerable to water and fire ✅ Everything critical: the plan, maps, first aid, contacts, this document
Phone/tablet Enormous capacity, full-text search Needs power, fragile, can be lost A PDF library, offline maps (OsmAnd, Organic Maps, Maps.me), photographs of documents
USB stick / SD card (2, in different places) Compact, cheap Needs a computer A copy of the whole library. Keep it in a sealed bag, one of them away from home

Recommendation: assemble an archive (a Kiwix/ZIM copy of Wikipedia, medical PDFs, manuals) on a USB stick and print out the 30–50 most critical pages. Laminate, or put in a plastic wallet, 5 pages of "first aid" and "what to do when you see a flash".

⚠️ Electronics may be damaged by EMP. Storing a spare medium and a spare simple receiver in a metal box (a tin, a metal safe, a microwave oven) with insulation from the walls is cheap insurance. Confidence: medium — the effectiveness of improvised shielding is not guaranteed, but it does no harm.


2.14. The family plan

What to do

Have one 30-minute conversation, answer 6 questions, and write the answers down on paper. This is cheaper and more useful than any equipment.

The six questions

Question How to answer
1 Where does each of us take shelter? For each family member: at home / at work / at school — name the specific room
2 Do we try to meet up immediately? NO. This rule must be adopted in advance and said out loud
3 When is it allowed to come out? Not before 24 hours, and preferably after an announcement by the authorities or after a dosimeter measurement
4 Where do we meet? A primary point (home), a backup (in another district), a distant one (out of town, at relatives')
5 How do we pass messages without communications? A note in an agreed place (the inside of the flat door, the entrance hall, the letter box, a tree by the house); an "out-of-region contact" — a relative in another city through whom you make contact once communications are partly restored
6 What if someone does not arrive? How long we wait, who goes looking, from which day, by which route

⛔ The central rule of the family plan

You must not automatically leave a good shelter in order to meet up.

This runs against instinct, and that is exactly why the decision has to be made in advance, calmly, and spoken aloud.

FEMA states directly: the need to reunite is the main reason people leave shelter and die. Children at school under a concrete roof are better protected than a parent walking to fetch them through the streets.

Wording for the family: "We have agreed: everyone shelters where they are and stays put for 24 hours. We will meet afterwards. If I have not come within 24 hours, that does not mean I am dead, it means I am in shelter."

Family plan card

Print one copy per family member, laminate it, and put it in a wallet/rucksack/pencil case.

FAMILY EMERGENCY PLAN
Surname: ______________________

I shelter at: home ______________ work/school ______________
My primary meeting point: ______________________
Backup meeting point: ______________________
Distant point (another city): ______________________
Out-of-region contact: ___________________ tel. ___________
Place for notes: ______________________

RULE: we stay put for 24 hours. Nobody goes to fetch anybody on the first day.

Medical: blood group ______ allergies ______________
Medicines: ______________________

Notes

Agree on an agreed place for notes. Whenever you leave the flat/shelter, always leave a note:

Date: ______  Time: ______
Who: ______________________
Condition: well / injured (how) ______________
Where I am going: ______________________
Route: ______________________
When I will return / next entry: ______________

2.15. Children

Scenario: the child is at school or nursery

What to do in advance

  1. Find out the institution's official emergency plan: is there a basement, where are the children sheltered, how long is the institution obliged to keep the children, who is entitled to collect a child.
  2. Ask directly: "What will you do if an air-raid warning is issued and parents cannot get here?" If there is no answer, that is information for you.
  3. Add to the list of authorised persons several people who live close to the school, not only yourself.
  4. Put in your child's rucksack: a bottle of water, a snack bar, a small torch, a whistle, a card with the plan, a warm hat, a spare dose of their personal medicine.
  5. Teach the child a simple algorithm (age appropriate): * saw a very bright light → do not look, lie down, cover your ears, open your mouth; * then → go inside the building, downwards, away from windows; * do as the adults at school say; * do not go home on your own for the first 24 hours; * if you are alone — go into any large building and stay there.
  6. Rehearse it as a game 2–3 times a year. Without frightening them: "it is like a fire drill, only you go down and inwards."

What a parent should do at the moment of the event

Situation Decision
Child at school, you at home/at work, fallout is falling or expected Do not go. Take shelter yourself. The child is protected inside the building
Child at school, the detonation is far off, no fallout, the road is clear, the school is < 10 minutes away ⚠️ Possible, but only if you are sure you will not be caught by fallout on the way
Child at home alone Phone or text if there is a connection: "go to [specific place], shut the door, stay there, I will come." Assess the risk of the journey
A day has passed, the background has fallen ✅ Go and fetch the child, with a respirator, covered clothing, by a known route

The particular features of children

Feature Consequence
A greater body surface area relative to mass They cool down and overheat faster
They dehydrate faster Diarrhoea is more dangerous; ORS are critical
They breathe more often and closer to the ground They inhale more dust per unit of body mass
The thyroid is more active and smaller Maximum risk of thyroid cancer from radioiodine — KI is a priority for children
Dividing cells Higher radiosensitivity overall
They do not understand risk They need constant supervision; you cannot leave them "sitting" in a contaminated place
Psychology They need routine, explanation in simple words, physical contact, and activities (see STAGE 40)

2.16. Pets

What to prepare

Item Why
Carrier/cage A panicking animal runs away; a carrier = control
Two weeks of food + tinned food The animal will not eat unfamiliar food
Water and bowls ~50 ml/kg of body mass per day
Lead, harness, muzzle Control in a crowd and in the shelter
The animal's medicines, vaccination documents Health, admission to shelters
Litter, puppy pads, bags Sanitation in a confined space
Tag/chip with contact details Finding it if it is lost
Towels, brush Decontamination

Decontaminating an animal

  1. Work in gloves and a respirator.
  2. First brush/wipe the coat thoroughly with a dry towel — this removes the bulk of the particles.
  3. Then wash with shampoo (ordinary pet shampoo or baby shampoo) in warm water, without conditioner.
  4. Pay particular attention to: paws, muzzle, ears, belly, tail.
  5. ⚠️ The animal licks itself — that is a direct route for contamination to get inside. Washing the paws and muzzle is the priority.
  6. Used towels — into a bag, outside.
  7. Collect the run-off if you can, and pour it away outside the living area.

The reality

⚠️ There will be problems in a shelter with an animal: noise, smell, conflict with other people, consumption of water and food. Decide in advance what you will do. Leaving the animal in the flat with a stock of food and water is an option worth considering honestly, rather than in a panic.


2.17. The workplace

What to establish in advance

Question How to check
The best space in the building The basement; failing that, an interior windowless room in the middle of the building, on the middle floors
Is there a basement / underground car park Ask the management, go and look
Where the stairs are Walk all of them. Lifts do not work without electricity
Where the exits are At least two. Check whether the emergency ones are locked
Where the water is Coolers, taps, water heater, fire main, drinks machines
Is there emergency lighting It usually runs for 1–3 hours
Where the first-aid kit and extinguishers are Mark them on a plan
The nearest external shelter If the building is a glass office block, your place is the underground car park or a massive building next door
Who makes the decisions Security staff. You will have to talk to them
How to shut off the gas/ventilation Switching off the supply ventilation sharply reduces dust ingress

⚠️ A particular risk: glass office buildings

A modern business centre is the worst case: continuous glazing, lightweight structures, an enormous area of exterior wall. The blast wave turns the façade into a cloud of fragments. Your place is the underground car park, the plant floors, the building core by the lift shafts.

On a warning: get away from the windows immediately and go down to the car park.


2.18. The car

What it is sensible to keep in the car permanently

Item Why
3–5 l of water Rotate it (more often in summer)
Long-life food (bars, tinned food) 1–2 days
Seasonal footwear and clothing, gloves, hat You may find yourself far from home in unsuitable clothes
First-aid kit + personal medication Injuries
Torch + batteries Darkness
Paper maps of the region GPS may fail
Multi-tool, knife Versatility
Tow rope, jump leads Mobility
Spade (folding) Snow, earth, rubble
Fire extinguisher Vehicle fire
FFP2/FFP3 respirators + goggles Dust
Rubbish bags, tape Decontamination
Cash Everything
Sleeping bag/blanket, space blanket A night in the car with no heating
Fuel: keep the tank no lower than half Filling stations will be the first to stop working
USB charger from the cigarette lighter Electronics

⛔ A car is not a fallout shelter

  • PF ≈ 1–2. FEMA: "vehicles are not adequate shelter, as they do not contain good shielding material."
  • Glass does not stop gamma radiation.
  • The air conditioning/ventilation draws in dust (switch to recirculation if you are forced to drive).

Correct use: drive to a shelter within minutes, abandon the car and go into the building. Or use it after 24 hours to evacuate along a known route.

The car as a resource

Resource Use
12 V battery, 45–70 Ah (≈550–850 Wh) Light, charging, radio via an inverter
The alternator Charging batteries while the engine runs
Petrol/diesel in the tank Fuel for burners (⚠️ extremely flammable), barter
A receiver with a good antenna Information
Jack, tools Mechanics
Mirrors Signalling with reflected sunlight (visible for kilometres)
Seats, upholstery Insulation, bedding
Engine oil Lubrication, an improvised smoky lamp (⚠️ smoke, CO)
Antifreeze Lethally poisonous (ethylene glycol). Sweet-tasting. Keep it out of reach of children and animals

2.19. Preparing clothing

What to prepare

Element Function Requirement
Covering clothing (long sleeves, long trousers, hood) Keeps particles off the skin; prevents "beta burns" Smooth fabric beats fluffy: dust brushes off it more easily. A rain cape or a synthetic windproof is ideal
Footwear Protection from glass and debris; keeping your mobility Thick, stiff sole, high ankle, laced. ⛔ Not sandals, not thin-soled trainers
Gloves Protecting the hands; hands are the main route for carrying contamination to the mouth Work gloves over the top, nitrile underneath
Headwear Hair holds particles better than anything else and is the hardest to wash clean Hood, headscarf, hat, hard hat on rubble
Sealed goggles Protecting the eyes from dust and fragments Builder's goggles, a ski mask
Respirator Reduces the inhalation of particles FFP2/FFP3 (N95/N99). A tight seal is essential (a beard reduces effectiveness)
Overshoes / galoshes / bags over the shoes Footwear is the dirtiest item; it comes off at the boundary of the "dirty zone" Cheap

⚠️ A CRITICAL CLARIFICATION ABOUT RESPIRATORS

A respirator reduces the inhalation of radioactive particles, but it does NOT protect against gamma radiation.

Gamma radiation is a stream of high-energy photons; fabric, rubber and filters are transparent to it. Only mass and distance work against gamma.

Moreover, FEMA/LLNL state directly: do not waste time looking for a respirator — the external dose from fallout ("ground shine") usually exceeds the inhalation dose by orders of magnitude. The priority is to get inside as fast as possible. A respirator is a bonus if you already have one to hand.

Confidence: high — this is a direct formulation from FEMA PG 3rd ed.

But: ad-hoc protection is better than none. FEMA: "even improvised protection (a cloth held over the mouth and nose) is better than nothing."

Layering (for cold)

Layer Task Material
Base (against the skin) Moving moisture away Wool, synthetics. ⛔ Cotton is a killer in the cold: it soaks through and will not dry
Mid Warmth Fleece, wool, down, synthetic insulation
Outer Wind, water Membrane, dense synthetics, rain shell

Rule: 3 thin layers beat 1 thick one — you can regulate them and avoid sweating. Sweat in the cold kills.


2.20. Preparing for decontamination

What to do in advance

Think through and physically mark out the scheme in your home:

DIRTY ZONE  →  REMOVE CLOTHING  →  ISOLATE  →  CLEAN UP  →  CLEAN CLOTHING  →  SHELTER
 (street,       (porch/            (bag,       (shower/     (spare              (clean
 stairwell)     hallway,           tie shut,   wipe-down)   set)                zone)
                balcony)           take out)

Practical marking-out of a flat

Zone Where What must already be there
Dirty zone Stairwell / hallway up to the threshold / balcony Mat, sacks, scissors (to cut clothing off if it will not come off), tape
Boundary The hallway threshold. Mark it with tape or a mat Bags for clothing and shoes, a bucket of water, cloths
Cleaning The bathroom Soap, shampoo (⛔ not conditioner), flannel, warm water in a container if the mains are down
Clean zone The shelter room A change of clothing in sealed bags, towels

Prepare in advance

  • 2 changes of clothing per person in sealed bags, in the clean zone.
  • 20–30 large rubbish sacks + string/cable ties.
  • A container of water in the bathroom (at least 20 l) in case the mains are down.
  • Scissors (cutting clothing off is faster than pulling it over the head — and safer: do not drag contaminated fabric across the face).
  • Soap — plain, and plenty of it. Special "decontamination" products are not needed.
  • A place for the "dirty" sacks: well away from people, outside the door, on the balcony, in the stairwell. Distance is your friend.

For the full procedure, see STAGE 9


2.21. Fire as a competing risk

Why this is critical

A nuclear detonation causes mass fires from thermal radiation and from ruptured gas mains and electrical networks. In a densely built city the fires can merge into a single mass.

Fire kills faster than radiation. Smoke and carbon monoxide kill in minutes; fallout kills in hours and days. That is why there are situations in which you have to leave a good shelter.

What to prepare in advance

Item/action Why
ABC dry-powder extinguisher 4–6 kg (at least 1, preferably 2) Puts out solid, liquid and gas fires and live electrics
Know two ways out of the flat and out of the building One may be blocked
Know where the fire escape is and where the roof access is A reserve
Know where to shut off the gas (the valve at the flat inlet and on the riser) Gas is the main secondary source of fires
Know where the main electrical breaker is To kill the power if the wiring is damaged
A standalone smoke detector + a CO detector (battery-powered) CO has no colour and no smell. A detector is the only way to find it
A wet cloth/towel To breathe through in smoke, and to plug the gap under the door
Do not keep large stocks of petrol/solvents at home It accelerates any fire

Carbon monoxide (CO): the numbers

CO concentration Effect
~50 ppm The upper limit for prolonged exposure (35–50 ppm for 8 h in different countries)
150–200 ppm Disorientation, loss of consciousness, death possible on prolonged exposure
400 ppm Severe headache within 1–2 hours, life-threatening within 3 hours
800 ppm Convulsions, loss of consciousness within an hour; death within 2–3 hours
1600 ppm Death possible within an hour
6400 ppm+ Death within a few minutes

Confidence: medium — thresholds differ between sources; they depend on duration, physical exertion, age and the presence of heart disease.

Symptoms of CO: headache, nausea, weakness, dizziness, confusion, "like flu but without a temperature". If several people in a room have a headache at the same time — get out into fresh air immediately.

DECISION TREE: stay in the shelter or leave it because of fire/collapse

START: I am in shelter. There are signs of fire or structural damage.

1. Is there a DIRECT threat to life RIGHT NOW?
   • Fire in my room or the next one?
   • Dense smoke, I cannot see beyond arm's length?
   • I cannot breathe, coughing, burning in the throat?
   • The structure is cracking, the ceiling is sagging, the walls are separating?
   • Several people at once have headache/nausea/confusion (CO)?
        YES → LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. Go to item 6.
        NO → item 2

2. Fire in the building, but not next to me?
        YES → Can I isolate myself?
             • Shut the door (a door holds fire back for minutes to tens of minutes)
             • Plug the gaps with wet cloth
             • Move to a room with a window on the other side (for signalling and air)
             IF no smoke is coming in and the temperature is not rising → STAY, check every 10 minutes
             IF smoke is coming in or the door is heating up → item 6
        NO → item 3

3. Fire outside, in neighbouring buildings?
        • Determine the wind direction
        • Assess the distance and whether there is a break (street, courtyard, river, waste ground)
        IF the fire is across the street and the wind is towards me → prepare to leave, item 5
        IF the fire is downwind or far away → STAY, keep watching

4. The building is damaged but not on fire?
        Signs of immediate danger: cracks wider than 5 mm running through load-bearing walls;
        sagging slabs; distorted door frames; cracking noises; spalling concrete
        YES → leave, item 6
        NO → move to a lower floor / into a load-bearing wall opening, stay

5. I have decided to leave, but not immediately. Preparation (2–5 minutes):
        • Put on covering clothing, footwear, gloves, respirator, goggles
        • Take: water, first-aid kit, torch, documents, radio, dosimeter
        • Decide WHERE (a backup shelter from your list)
        • Decide the ROUTE (not through fire, upwind of the smoke)
        • Leave a note

6. LEAVING. Rules:
        • Breathe through a damp cloth, move CROUCHED or on all fours,
          30–60 cm above the floor: in a fire, smoke, heat and CO rise,
          and the air is cleaner low down
          NOTE: the opposite rule applies in a CHEMICAL release —
          chlorine, propane, hydrogen sulphide and CO2 pool at floor level, there you go HIGHER
        • Do not use the lift
        • Before opening a door, touch it with the back of your hand: hot → do not open
        • Go to the backup shelter by the SHORTEST route, minimising time outside
        • Outside — cover the skin, respirator on, do not eat, do not drink, do not touch your face
        • On arrival — decontamination (STAGE 9)

PRINCIPLE: radiation kills over hours and days, fire and smoke over minutes.
In a direct conflict, the faster threat wins.

2.22. Regular checks

Checklist (carry out 1–2 times a year; tie it to the clocks changing, a birthday or New Year)

Item What to check Interval
1 Water Dates on the bottles; replace any you bottled yourself; containers for leaks 6 months
2 Food Best-before dates; throw out swollen/rusty tins; check oil and nuts for rancidity; FIFO rotation 6 months
3 Medicines Expiry dates; restock prescription items; replace expired ones; check storage conditions 6 months
4 Batteries Dates; check for leakage (alkaline cells leak and destroy instruments); store them out of the devices 12 months
5 Power bank Charge to 60–80 %; check that it holds charge 3–6 months
6 Batteries (car, traction) Voltage; top up the charge on lead-acid; electrolyte level 3 months
7 Radio Switch it on, tune in stations; test the crank; write down the frequencies 12 months
8 Torches Switch each one on; replace batteries; check the contacts 6 months
9 Dosimeter Switch on; check the background reading (should be 0.05–0.30 µSv/h); replace batteries; re-read the manual 6 months
10 Maps Currency; have new roads appeared or passages closed 12 months
11 Routes Walk at least one again; check that the way through is not blocked 12 months
12 Shelters Do they still exist? Are they still accessible? Has a turnstile/entryphone been installed? 12 months
13 Contacts Phone numbers/addresses up to date; reprint the paper card 12 months
14 Children's clothing Children grow. Check the shoe and clothing sizes in the kit 6 months
15 Animals Food, expiry dates, medicines, carrier intact 6 months
16 Fire extinguisher Gauge in the green; recharge date 12 months
17 Smoke and CO detectors Press the test button; replace batteries 6 months
18 Bleach for water ⚠️ Sodium hypochlorite loses activity: noticeable loss within 6–12 months at room temperature. Replace annually 12 months
19 Water purification tablets Expiry date (usually 3–5 years) 12 months
20 Documents Update the copies (new passport, new insurance); check the USB stick 12 months
21 KI (potassium iodide) Expiry date (tablets usually 5–7 years, often extended by the manufacturer). Dosages for the children's current weight 12 months
22 Fuel in the car Keep the tank ≥ half at all times Continuously
23 Respirators Packaging intact, elastics not perished 24 months
24 Printed copy of the plan Currency, legibility 12 months

2.23. A household exercise

Run it 1–2 times a year. It takes 20–40 minutes. Without it the plan is just paper.

Scenario 1: "The whole family is at home, an alert is issued, 15 minutes"

Task: within 15 minutes, everyone is in the chosen shelter place with water, food, first-aid kit, radio and torches.

What to check: * Does everyone know where to go? * How long did it actually take? * What was forgotten? * Was there enough room? * Does the radio work in that room?

Scenario 2: "The family is in different places, communications are down"

Task: each person says out loud what they will do, without calling the others.

What to check: * Does each person know their shelter at work/school? * Does each person know the rule "we stay put for 24 hours, nobody goes to fetch anybody"? * Does each person know the meeting point and the place for notes?

Scenario 3: "No communications, 48 hours have passed"

Task: play out who goes where, in what order, by which routes.

What to check: * Do the different family members' plans match? (a common mistake: two people set out towards each other by different routes and miss each other) * Who stays put and who moves? Rule: one person moves, the rest wait.

Scenario 4: "The nearest shelter is unavailable"

Task: walk to the backup one and time it.

What to check: * The real travel time. * Whether the route is passable. * What you took with you and whether you could carry it.

Scenario 5: "Fire in the shelter"

Task: run through the decision tree in 2.21. Get out, reach the backup shelter.

Scenario 6: "No electricity for 72 hours"

Task: actually live through a weekend without electricity (do it in summer, as practice).

What this tests: lighting, cooking, water, the toilet, boredom, conflict, charging phones. This is the most informative exercise of all — you will uncover a dozen problems you had no idea about.


2.24. Budgets

A formula for evaluating a purchase

Value = (Probability it will be needed)
      × (Severity of the consequences if you do not have it)
      × (Versatility: how many other scenarios it covers)
      ÷ (Cost)

Practical meaning: water, a first-aid kit and a torch beat any exotic equipment, because they will be useful in a power cut, a flood, a burst main, a hurricane, and simply on a hike — that is, with a probability close to 1.

An expensive dosimeter is a low probability of use × very high severity of consequences × low versatility. That is why it sits in the middle of the list, not at the top.

Minimum budget (guide: the cost of one or two trips to the shops)

Aim: survive 72 hours and not die of stupidity.

Item Approximate share of the budget
Water: 20–30 l in bottles 10 %
Food: tins + grains + oil for 5 days 20 %
LED torch + a stock of batteries 10 %
AM/FM battery radio (the cheapest one) 15 %
Basic first-aid kit: bandages, tourniquet, antiseptic, painkiller, ORS, plasters 20 %
Unscented bleach (water disinfection) + a measuring pipette 2 %
Rubbish sacks, tape, sheeting 5 %
FFP2 respirators (a pack), gloves 8 %
Whistle, notebook, pencil, printout of the plan 2 %
Paper map of the city 3 %
Cash (not a purchase, a reserve) 5 %

Plus, free of charge: the shelter map, the family plan, three routes, choosing the spot in the flat. This delivers more than everything you buy.

Medium budget

Aim: survive 2–4 weeks self-sufficiently.

Everything from the minimum, plus:

Item
Water: a store of 100+ l + jerrycans for collecting more
Food: 1–3 months (grains, pulses, tins, oil, sugar, salt, powdered milk)
A 0.1–0.2 µm mechanical water filter
Water disinfection tablets (for 500+ l)
An AM/FM/SW radio with dynamo and solar panel
2 power banks + a 20–30 W solar panel
A head torch each + a year's supply of batteries
An extended first-aid kit (STAGE 14, the "critical" + "very useful" levels)
A 90-day stock of prescription medicines
Potassium iodide for the family (where legally available)
A personal dosimeter with a limit ≥ 100 mSv/h
ABC extinguisher ×2, CO detector, smoke detector
Sleeping bags/warm blankets for everyone
Work boots and clothing for everyone
Tools: multi-tool, handsaw, crowbar, adjustable spanner, axe
Emergency toilet: lidded bucket, absorbent, bags
A stove (camping gas) + 4–6 cartridges
A paper library: first aid, maps, this document
A bicycle in working order + repair kit + pump

The most sensible preparation possible without your own bunker

Aim: 6–12 months of autonomy and the ability to move towards self-sufficiency.

Everything from the medium budget, plus:

Category Items
Water A fixed filter (gravity ceramic), a rainwater collection system, a hand pump for a borehole/well, 200–500 l of containers
Food A year's supply for each family member (see 2.9); a hand mill for grain; seeds (see STAGE 24)
Power A 200–400 W solar system: panels, MPPT controller, LiFePO4 or AGM battery 100–200 Ah, 300–600 W pure sine inverter
Heat A solid-fuel stove with a proper flue (if the dwelling allows), a stock of firewood/coal/briquettes
Medicine A complete kit including antibiotics (on prescription, legally), splints, a stretcher, months of consumables
Dosimetry A professional radiometer (limit ≥ 1 Sv/h) + 2–3 personal dosimeters
Communications An amateur radio set + licence (see STAGE 19), an HF receiver, antennas
Tools A full hand-tool set (STAGE 23), sharpening equipment, fixings, wire, rope
Knowledge A paper library (STAGE 32), first-aid courses, driving/repair courses
Mobility A serviceable diesel vehicle + fuel cans with stabiliser, bicycles for everyone
Shelter Improving your own basement: waterproofing, ventilation, an emergency exit, shelving, lighting
Fallback site A country house or a relative's house outside the likely targets, with supplies already there

⚠️ The main warning on budgets: the commonest failure in preparation is to buy equipment and not buy skill. A first-aid course costs less than a good knife and saves more lives.


2.25. Purchase priority: one item a month

The order is optimised by the formula in 2.24: first the things that are cheap, versatile, and cover the fastest threats.

Month Purchase Why now
0 Free: the shelter map, the family plan, the routes, the spot in the flat Zero money, maximum return
1 Water: 30–50 l + 2 jerrycans The fastest threat after injuries
2 LED torches (2–3, one a head torch) + batteries Darkness paralyses
3 Basic first-aid kit + a first-aid course Injuries are the most likely cause of death
4 Two weeks of food (tins, grains, oil, sugar, salt) Resilience
5 AM/FM radio with dynamo Information = decisions
6 Respirators, gloves, goggles, sacks, tape, sheeting Decontamination and protection
7 Power bank ×2 + cables Communications and navigation
8 Footwear and work clothing for everyone Mobility
9 Fire extinguisher + CO detector + smoke detector The number one competing risk
10 Water filter + disinfection tablets Long-term water
11 A stock of personal prescription medicines (3 months) People with chronic conditions die first
12 A dosimeter with a limit ≥ 100 mSv/h Now it makes sense: everything else is already covered
13 Emergency toilet + hygiene + disinfection Sanitation = infections
14 A 20–30 W solar panel Renewable power
15 Food out to 3 months Depth of stock
16 Stove + fuel Cooking and boiling
17 Tools: multi-tool, handsaw, crowbar, spanner Repairs and clearing
18 Sleeping bags/warm clothing, space blankets Hypothermia
19 Paper library + printing the plan + maps Knowledge
20 Potassium iodide (where available) Narrow but real benefit
21 Extended first-aid kit (splints, tourniquets, suture material, antibiotics on prescription) The next level of medicine
22 Bicycle + repair kit Transport that always works
23 A second dosimeter / a personal cumulative one Redundancy
24 Solar system (panel + controller + battery + inverter) Autonomy

Rule: if there is no money in a given month, skip the purchase but do the free action: walk a route, check a shelter, run an exercise, update the plan.


MY NUCLEAR EMERGENCY PLAN

This page is intended to be printed separately. Print it, fill it in by hand, laminate it or put it in a plastic wallet. Make copies: at home by the shelter, at work, in your rucksack, in the car, in your wallet.

Date completed: __ Date last checked: ____

WHERE I LIVE

Home (address):


Building type / material / floor:


SHELTERS

Primary shelter (address, how to get in, time on foot):



Backup shelter (address, time on foot):



Emergency shelter (nearest, time on foot):



Best place in my home (specific room):


Best place at work (specific room):


ROUTES

Primary route (work → home, or home → shelter):



Backup route:



Hazardous points on the route (bridges, filling stations, chemical sites, bottlenecks):


SUPPLIES

Water store (how many litres, where kept, date filled):


Food store (how many days, where):


Medicines (what, for whom, how much, where, expiry date):



Radio (model, power, emergency station frequencies): AM: _ AM backup: _ FM: _ SW: _

Dosimeter (model, upper measuring limit, where it is kept, batteries):


Electricity (power bank, panel, batteries — what and where):


PEOPLE

Family plan (who shelters where):

Name Where usually during the day Shelter there Phone

Children's plan (school/nursery, their rules, who may collect them):



Animals plan (who, what to take, where the carrier is):


Primary meeting point:


Backup meeting point (another district):


Distant meeting point (another city):


Out-of-region contact (name, city, phone):


Place for notes:


FAMILY MEDICAL DATA

Name Year of birth Weight Blood group Allergies Chronic illnesses Regular medication

THE CENTRAL RULE WE AGREED IN ADVANCE

Everyone shelters where they are. We stay put for at least 24 hours. Nobody goes to fetch anybody on the first day. We will meet afterwards. No contact does not mean death.

Family members' signatures: _________


PART II. THE NUCLEAR EVENT

STAGE 3. THREAT MODEL

Before making decisions, you need to understand what exactly can kill you and in what time order.

3.1. Summary table of threats

Threat Acts over Radius/scale How to protect yourself
Thermal (light) radiation 0–20 seconds The largest radius among the instantaneous effects Do not look; lie down; any opaque obstacle
Prompt (initial) nuclear radiation 0–1 minute Roughly out to 1 km for a 10 kt-scale detonation (FEMA: dangerous levels within ~0.8 km) Mass. There is practically nothing you can do if you are there
Blast wave seconds to tens of seconds Damage zones: severe, moderate, light Lie down; get away from windows; massive structures
Building collapse, debris, glass instantly and over hours All damage zones Interior rooms, further from windows
Fires minutes to days The whole affected zone and beyond Evacuation, isolation, extinguishers
Radioactive fallout from 10–15 min to 24 h; the danger lasts days to weeks 15–30 km "dangerous zone", low levels over hundreds of km Mass, distance, time. Shelter
External gamma exposure from fallout the whole time you are in the zone The main threat to survivors. Shelter
Skin contamination (beta) on contact Decontamination
Inhalation of dust during fallout Respirator, shelter; but the priority is to get inside
Radionuclide intake with water and food days to years Sealed food, covered water
Smoke and carbon monoxide minutes Fires, generators, stoves Ventilation, CO detector
Damaged gas mains hours to days Cities Shut off the gas, do not light a flame
Chemical releases hours to months Around industrial sites Keep away, see STAGE 30
Damaged nuclear power plants weeks to years Tens to hundreds of km See STAGE 31
Infections days to years Everywhere Sanitation, water, hands
Dehydration 1–3 days Everywhere Water, ORS
Hypothermia hours Cold, rain, wind, wet clothing Dryness, layers, shelter
Overheating hours Heat, an enclosed shelter with no ventilation Water, shade, ventilation
Injuries instantly and thereafter Everywhere Footwear, gloves, care
Hunger weeks to months Everywhere Stores, food production
Social stress, conflict days to years Everywhere Organisation, rules, see STAGES 38–40

3.2. Three concepts that are constantly confused

Understanding this difference is the foundation of every decision that follows.

EXPOSURE (irradiation, external exposure)

Your body is penetrated by radiation from a source outside it. Like a suntan from the sun, or an X-ray at the hospital.

  • It stops instantly as soon as you move away from the source or put mass between you and it.
  • You do NOT become radioactive. An irradiated person is not dangerous to those around them.
  • This is the main cause of death from fallout.

CONTAMINATION

Radioactive material is physically present on you, in you, or on objects. Like dirt or pollen.

  • External contamination — particles on skin, hair and clothing. Removed by washing and taking clothes off.
  • Internal contamination — particles that have got inside through breathing, swallowing or wounds. The body clears them slowly; some nuclides accumulate in organs.
  • A contaminated person is a source of radiation for those around them (weak, but real) — until decontamination.
  • This is treatable: take the clothes off and wash.

FALLOUT

Physical material: dust, sand, particles of soil and structures that were drawn up into the fireball, mixed with radioactive fission products, and fell back to the ground.

  • In appearance — fine sand or ash, usually visible. FEMA: "the most dangerous fallout particles are readily visible as grains the size of fine sand."
  • ⚠️ But the absence of visible dust does not mean the absence of radiation. On rough and dirty surfaces the particles are not visible.
  • Fallout simultaneously produces external exposure (gamma) and contamination (on contact).

A simple analogy

Fire = the radiation source. Heat from the fire = exposure. Step back and it stops warming you. Sparks that land on your clothing = contamination. They have to be brushed off, or they go on burning. The ash scattered around the area = fallout.

3.3. Types of ionising radiation

Type What it is Penetrating power Danger from outside Danger from inside What shields it
Alpha (α) A helium nucleus (2 protons + 2 neutrons), a heavy charged particle A few cm of air; does not pass through the skin Practically none Very high — if inhaled/swallowed it does enormous local damage A sheet of paper, a layer of skin
Beta (β) An electron or positron A few metres of air; up to a few mm in tissue Skin burns ("beta burns"), damage to the lens of the eye High 1–2 cm of aluminium, dense clothing, Perspex
Gamma (γ) A high-energy photon (electromagnetic wave) Hundreds of metres in air; passes right through the body THE MAIN THREAT from fallout Present Only mass: concrete, lead, earth, water
Neutron (n) Free neutrons Very high High at the moment of detonation (prompt radiation); not present in fallout Hydrogen-bearing substances: water, polythene, concrete, paraffin wax

Practical consequences

  1. What kills you in fallout is gamma. Only mass and distance work against it. No mask, suit, cream or pill helps.
  2. Alpha and beta are dangerous when they get inside you or onto your skin. A respirator, covering clothing, washing, and clean food and water work against them.
  3. There is no neutron radiation in fallout. It exists only in the first minute near ground zero. Do not waste thought on it.
  4. X-rays are physically the same as gamma but of lower energy; they are not treated separately in the fallout context.

3.4. Neutron-induced activity

Within roughly 1 km of a surface burst, neutrons make certain elements in the soil, concrete and metal radioactive (sodium, manganese, aluminium). This "induced activity" adds to the fallout, but decays quickly (hours to days for the main nuclides).

Confidence: medium — it depends on the weapon type and the soil composition.

Practical conclusion: the immediate vicinity of ground zero stays dangerous longer than the surrounding fallout zone, but for a survivor this does not change the plan: do not go there.

3.5. The main fallout nuclides and why they matter

Nuclide Half-life Where it goes in the body Significance
Iodine-131 (I-131) 8.02 days Thyroid gland The main threat of the first weeks, especially for children. Countered by KI and control of milk and leafy greens
Caesium-137 (Cs-137) ~30 years Muscle, the whole body (behaves like potassium) The main long-term threat to soil and food
Caesium-134 ~2 years As Cs-137 Significant in the first years
Strontium-90 (Sr-90) ~28.8 years Bone (behaves like calcium) Long-term; dangerous in milk and bone products
Barium-140 / Lanthanum-140 12.8 d / 1.7 d A substantial contribution to the gamma field of the first weeks
Zirconium-95 / Niobium-95 64 d / 35 d The gamma field of the first months
Ruthenium-103/106 39 d / 374 d Gastrointestinal tract Medium term
Plutonium, uranium (unreacted fuel) very long Lungs, bone, liver Alpha emitters: dangerous when inhaled, not as external exposure
Carbon-14, tritium 5730 y / 12.3 y Whole body Global background, little individual significance

3.6. The time order of threats — the central diagram of this document

SECONDS:   flash → flash burn, blindness → blast wave → injuries, debris
MINUTES:   fire, smoke, CO, collapse, massive bleeding, suffocation
10–60 MIN: arrival of fallout → gamma exposure outdoors
HOURS:     gamma dose accumulates; hypothermia/overheating; shock; burns
DAYS:      dehydration; lack of medicines; contamination of water and food
WEEKS:     infections; sanitation; acute radiation sickness in the exposed; hunger begins
MONTHS:    hunger; chronic illness without treatment; cold/heat; conflict
YEARS:     nutritional deficiency; long-term soil contamination (Cs-137, Sr-90); cancer; depopulation

STAGE 4. THE FIRST 60 SECONDS

This section should take less than a minute to read. Print it separately.

ALGORITHM: "I HAVE SEEN A NUCLEAR FLASH"

1. DO NOT LOOK. Turn away, screw your eyes shut, cover them with your hands.
2. DROP FACE DOWN. Hands under your body or your head. Mouth slightly open. Ears covered.
3. GET BEHIND COVER. Anything: a kerb, a ditch, a wall, a post, furniture, a bath.
4. WAIT FOR THE BLAST WAVE. It arrives in seconds to tens of seconds. There may be two.
5. WAIT ANOTHER 30–60 SECONDS after the wave: reverse flow, falling debris.
6. GET UP. CHECK YOURSELF. GO INSIDE AND DOWN.

Why the mouth is slightly open: it equalises the pressure on both sides of the eardrum, reducing the risk of rupture. Why face down: it protects the eyes and exposed skin from the thermal pulse and from flying glass. Why wait: after the front passes, the air rushes back (the negative phase), lifting debris a second time.

By situation

I AM IN THE STREET

  1. Lie down immediately, behind any obstacle, face down, head towards cover.
  2. Cover exposed skin: hands under your body, face in the crook of your elbow.
  3. After the wave — get up, check yourself over (blood, burns, protruding objects).
  4. Go to the nearest massive building, downwards (the basement) or into the core.
  5. Do not look at the mushroom cloud, do not photograph it, do not look for your possessions.
  6. Respirator or cloth over the face — if it is to hand; do not spend time on it.

⚠️ If you saw the flash but no wave has arrived after 60+ seconds, the detonation is far away (more than ~20 km). Go inside anyway: fallout may reach you.

I AM IN A CAR

  1. Pull over/stop immediately if the wave has not yet arrived. Duck below window level, face down, hands over your head.
  2. ⚠️ Do not stay in the car after the wave has passed. A car does not protect against fallout.
  3. After the wave: look around, abandon the car if there is a building nearby; or drive for a minute or two to a massive building if the road is clear.
  4. If you are somewhere remote with no buildings — drive perpendicular to the wind and away from the cloud, looking for a building, a basement, a tunnel, a bridge with an embankment, a cave, a quarry, a gully.
  5. Switch the ventilation to recirculation and close the windows.

I AM IN A FLAT

  1. Get away from the windows. Lie on the floor by an internal wall, under a table, in the bath, in the hallway.
  2. After the wave — check: fire? gas? collapse?
  3. Shut off the gas, kill the power to damaged circuits.
  4. Move into the basement or into an interior room with no windows (see 2.5).
  5. Close the doors and windows (if intact), switch off the supply ventilation/air conditioning.
  6. Fill everything you have with water.
  7. Switch on the radio.

I AM IN A HIGH-RISE BUILDING

  1. Get away from the glazing immediately: into the corridor, the stairwell, a lavatory, the lift lobby.
  2. Lie down, cover your head.
  3. ⚠️ The upper floors are dangerous: more sway, more glazing, stronger fallout on the roof.
  4. After the wave — down the stairs (do not use the lift) to the basement/car park, or to the middle floors.
  5. Do not try to get down to the street and drive away — there is fallout outside.

I AM IN A BASEMENT

  1. Move away from windows/light wells, lie down, cover your head.
  2. After the wave — stay. You are already in the best place.
  3. Check the exit: is it blocked? Find a second one.
  4. Check for the smell of gas. If there is gas — leave.
  5. Collect water, switch on the radio, wait.

I AM FAR AWAY (a flash on the horizon)

  1. Turn away, do not look.
  2. Lie down or take cover — the wave may arrive weakened but still blow the windows in.
  3. Determine the wind direction (smoke, flags, leaves, clouds).
  4. Go inside. Fallout will reach you in tens of minutes to hours if you are downwind.
  5. Switch on the radio and listen.
  6. Start preparing the shelter (see 2.6): you have time that those closer in do not.

Signs that you are in a fallout zone

  • Fine sand/ash settling on surfaces, cars, water.
  • The sensation of "dusty rain" without rain.
  • "Black rain" — rain mixed with particles (it occurred at Hiroshima and Nagasaki).
  • A sharp rise in the dosimeter reading.

⚠️ The absence of all these signs does not guarantee safety. Only an instrument gives the answer.

What NOT to do in the first minute

⛔ Do not Why
Look at the flash or the mushroom cloud Retinal burn, blindness
Run headlong before the wave arrives The wave will knock you down and throw you against objects
Stand by a window Glass is the main source of mass injury
Try to call straight away Networks are overloaded or destroyed; you lose seconds
Drive home across the city Jams, debris, fallout
Look for possessions, documents, money Seconds are worth more
Go up on the roof "to look" The roof collects fallout

STAGE 5. THE FIRST HOUR

The ranked algorithm

The order is built around how fast each threat kills, not around the familiar schemes.

STEP 0 (0–10 sec). Am I alive? Can I breathe? Can I move?
   → No → call for help, whistle, bang on something. Do not waste strength shouting.

STEP 1 (10 sec – 2 min). IMMEDIATE KILLERS AROUND ME
   □ Fire in my room? → leave
   □ Building collapsing, cracking, sagging? → leave
   □ Smell of gas? → do not switch on lights, do not make sparks, shut it off, ventilate, leave
   □ Smoke, cannot breathe? → get low, to the floor, damp cloth, leave
   □ Downed cables? → do not touch, go around
   → If YES to even one item: get to a safe place, then continue.

STEP 2 (2–5 min). MASSIVE BLEEDING (your own and other people's)
   Signs: blood spurting / pulsing / rapidly soaking through clothing /
   a pool growing in front of your eyes.
   → Direct pressure with the palm straight onto the wound, HARD, without letting go.
   → If it is a limb and it does not stop: TOURNIQUET above the wound, tight, until it stops,
     write the TIME of application on the forehead/tourniquet.
   → Pack a deep wound with cloth/bandage into the wound + pressure.
   ⏱ A person with arterial bleeding dies in 3–5 minutes.

STEP 3 (2–5 min). AIRWAY AND BREATHING
   □ Unconscious → put them on their side (recovery position),
     tilt the head back, clear the mouth
   □ Not breathing → cardiopulmonary resuscitation, if there is someone to do it
     ⚠️ In a mass-casualty disaster, CPR for traumatic arrest is almost hopeless;
        resources are better directed at those who can be saved
   □ Penetrating chest wound, "sucking" air → cover with plastic/tape
     on three sides (a flutter valve)

STEP 4 (5–15 min). GET TO SHELTER
   → This is the MOST IMPORTANT decision of the first hour (FEMA's direct formulation:
     "the greatest number of lives is saved in the first 60 minutes through sheltering").
   → The nearest massive building. Down, or into the core.
   → Walk, do not run (running = injuries, disorientation, wasted breath).
   → Take with you: water, first-aid kit, torch, radio, documents — if that
     takes less than 60 seconds.
   → Help those beside you who can walk to get there.

STEP 5 (15–30 min). DECONTAMINATION AT THE ENTRANCE
   → Remove outer clothing and footwear BEFORE entering the living area (removes up to 90 %)
   → Bag it, take it out
   → Wipe down/wash (see STAGE 9)
   → Change into clean clothes
   ⚠️ Do not linger outside for the sake of "proper" decontamination.
      Inside first, cleaning afterwards.

STEP 6 (30–45 min). ORGANISE THE SHELTER
   □ Close windows, doors, ventilation, switch off the air conditioning
   □ Tape up the gaps (tape, sheeting, wet cloths)
   □ Move to the most protected place in the building
   □ Build up mass around you (books, furniture, water) — by safe means only
   □ Shut off the gas
   □ Arrange lighting (torches, not candles)
   □ Arrange a toilet (bucket + bags) IN ADVANCE, before it is needed

STEP 7 (30–60 min). WATER
   □ Draw water FROM THE PIPES while there is still pressure: bath, buckets, pans, bottles
   □ Drain the water heater (having disconnected its power)
   □ Do not use water that has been standing in open containers outside
   □ Cover every filled container with a lid or sheeting

STEP 8 (within the hour). COMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION
   □ Switch on an AM/FM radio, find a working station, write down the frequency
   □ Send an SMS (they get through more often than calls when the network is overloaded)
   □ Write in your notebook: the time of the detonation, the direction of the flash, the wind direction,
     the dosimeter readings
   □ DO NOT drain the phone battery on endless attempts to get through

STEP 9 (within the hour). HELPING THE OTHERS
   □ Count the people
   □ Treat wounds and burns (see STAGE 13)
   □ Warm those who are in shock or wet
   □ Appoint someone to watch for fire/smoke/CO
   □ Let in those who ask (after decontamination at the entrance)

Why this particular order

Priority Classic rationale Refinement for the nuclear scenario
The surrounding hazard first "Scene safe" — the basic rule of first aid Especially important here: fire and collapse kill the rescuer along with the casualty
Then bleeding Modern tactical medicine (MARCH: Massive haemorrhage → Airway → Respiration → Circulation → Hypothermia) puts massive haemorrhage before the airway Confirmed: in blast injuries, blood loss is the leading preventable cause of death
Then shelter Specific to the nuclear scenario FEMA: the sheltering decision in the first hour saves the most lives
Decontamination after shelter CDC/FEMA The gamma dose outside matters more than the dust on your clothing. Get under protection first

Confidence: high — the order matches FEMA PG 3rd ed. and the MARCH principles.

⚠️ Conflict of priorities: helping the injured versus sheltering

This is a hard decision. Guidance:

  • If you are already inside and the casualty is just outside (5–10 metres) — drag them in, it takes seconds.
  • If the casualty is far outside and fallout is falling — you will most likely destroy yourself without saving them. That is harsh, but it is so.
  • If fallout has not yet started (the first 10 minutes) — help; you have a window.
  • A casualty who cannot be moved is covered with whatever is available and the spot is marked.

Mass-casualty triage (simplified)

If there are many casualties and limited help:

Category Signs Action
Walking Walks unaided Send them to shelter, give them a job helping
Red (immediate) Breathing, but badly; heavy bleeding; unconscious but breathing First priority — tourniquet, positioning, pressure
Yellow (delayed) Fractures, wounds without active bleeding, burns with no threat to the airway Second priority
Black (expectant) Not breathing after the airway is opened; injuries incompatible with life ⚠️ Resources go to those who can be saved. Give pain relief if you have any; keep them warm; do not leave them alone if you can help it

This is the hardest part of a disaster. It exists in real protocols and it is not cruelty — it maximises the number of survivors.


STAGE 6. THE FIRST 24 HOURS

The central principle

STAY. If you are in adequate shelter, the correct action for the first 24 hours is not to move.

FEMA PG 3rd ed.: "Those sheltering should not self-evacuate earlier than 24 hours after the detonation unless directed by the authorities... The first 12 hours are especially critical because of the high dose rate and the uncertainty of the fallout zones."

The three pillars of radiation protection: TIME, DISTANCE, SHIELDING

TIME

Dose = dose rate × time.

Cut the time spent in the field and you cut the dose proportionally.

  • Out for 10 minutes instead of an hour → you receive 6 times less.
  • Waited 7 hours instead of 1 hour → the dose rate has fallen by roughly a factor of 10.
  • Waited 2 days instead of 1 hour → by roughly a factor of 100.

In practice: any excursion outside is planned in advance and executed at speed against a list, with no improvisation. "Going out for a look" is an unaffordable luxury.

DISTANCE

The intensity from a point source falls with the square of the distance (twice as far = four times weaker).

⚠️ But fallout is not a point source — it is an extended layer on a surface. For such a source the inverse-square law does not apply directly: what matters more is how much contaminated area is "visible" from where you are.

What actually works:

  • Moving 2–3 metres in from the exterior wall — a noticeable effect.
  • Being a floor lower than a roof covered in fallout — a large effect.
  • Going down to the basement (earth shields from all sides) — a very large effect.
  • Moving a few metres away from a local "hot" patch (an accumulation of dust, a downpipe, a puddle) — a large effect.

SHIELDING

See the halving-thickness table in 2.5.

Quick reference:

What is between you and the fallout Approximate attenuation
Nothing 1
Glass, thin metal, plasterboard ~1.1–1.5
Timber wall + roof 2–4
25 cm brick wall ~15
30 cm concrete wall ~30
A slab + a storey of the building ~5–10 per floor
Basement under a dwelling house 10–20
Basement of a large building 100–250
1 m of earth overhead ~1000

⚠️ The values in this table are empirical reference points for real structures, already allowing for scattered radiation. They are systematically lower than a naïve halving-layer calculation gives (see 2.5). Do not recompute them "by the formula" — you will get an inflated and dangerous estimate.

Where to move in the first 24 hours

The FEMA rule on moving between shelters

FEMA gives specific guidance:

  • People in very poor shelter (PF ≈ 2 and below) inside the dangerous-fallout zone can reduce their dose by moving early to adequate shelter (PF > 10).
  • Such a move must take no more than 30 minutes outdoors, and must be away from ground zero.
  • For people in somewhat better shelter (PF ≈ 4) the gain is substantially smaller and the permissible time outside is shorter.
  • People in shelter with PF > 10 should stay inside.

Confidence: high — a direct citation from FEMA PG 3rd ed.

DECISION TREE: stay or move

I am in shelter. Less than 24 hours have passed.

1. Is the shelter safe? (no fire, collapse, gas, CO)
      NO  → move to the backup shelter (see 2.21)
      YES → item 2

2. How good is my shelter?
      BASEMENT / UNDERGROUND CAR PARK / CORE OF A LARGE BUILDING (PF > 10)
            → STAY. Not open to discussion. At least 24 hours.
      FLAT IN A PERMANENT BUILDING, interior room (PF ~5–10)
            → STAY, unless there is a basement in THE SAME building.
              If there is a basement in this building → move down to it (that is 2 minutes)
      TIMBER HOUSE WITH NO BASEMENT / CABIN / TENT / CAR (PF ~1–3)
            → item 3

3. Is there a clearly better shelter within 10–15 minutes on foot?
      NO  → stay, move to the centre of the house, build up mass, wait
      YES → item 4

4. How long since the detonation?
      < 15 minutes (fallout has not yet arrived) → GO IMMEDIATELY
      15 min – 1 hour (fallout is falling, the dose rate is at its peak)
            → ⚠️ A hard decision. FEMA permits a move at PF≈2
              if it takes ≤30 minutes outdoors and leads AWAY from ground zero.
              Cover the skin, respirator on, walk fast, do not stop.
      1–24 hours → The later the move, the safer it is.
              If your shelter is PF≈2 and there is a basement nearby — go.
              If in doubt — wait for the decay (every hour of waiting
              lowers the dose rate).
      > 24 hours → see STAGE 42 (the three-day plan)

5. Do you have a dosimeter?
      YES → measure the dose rate inside the shelter.
           Record the value and the time. Repeat every hour.
           If the value is rising → fallout is still arriving, sit tight.
           If it is falling → decay is under way, keep waiting.
      NO  → act by the clock: wait at least 24 hours.

PRINCIPLE: moving from poor shelter to good shelter is justified only if
the move is short and certainly leads somewhere better. Moving blind in the first
hours can kill you more reliably than poor shelter will.

Comparison of shelter types for the first 24 hours

Shelter Protection Ventilation Water Risks Good for
Basement of a dwelling house Good (10–20) Often natural Riser pipes, water heater Flooding, damp Weeks
Underground car park Excellent (100+) ⚠️ Forced, will shut down Little Fuel and Li-ion fire, CO Days
Metro Excellent ⚠️ Forced Little Flooding, crowds, inability to get out Hours to days
Core of a large concrete building Very good (20–100) Windows in other rooms Risers, water heaters, coolers Fire, lifts, stairs Weeks
Tunnel Excellent Variable None Flooding, traffic, no way out Days
Flat, interior room Moderate (3–10) Available Available Fire in the building, glass Weeks
Detached house with a cellar Good Natural Well, borehole Isolation, cold Weeks to months
School/hospital building Good Available, often with standby power Available Overcrowding, conflict, infection Days to weeks

What to do during the 24 hours inside the shelter

The first 2 hours

  • Organise the space: where people sleep, where the toilet is, where the "dirty zone" is, where the food is.
  • Count the people and the resources. Write it down.
  • Appoint someone on fire/CO watch.
  • Find a radio station, write down the frequency.
  • Start a log: time, events, dosimeter readings.

Hours 2–8

  • Treat wounds and burns.
  • Set up a drinking regime: ration from the start, do not wait until it runs out.
  • Organise sleep in shifts.
  • Decontaminate everyone who has been outside.
  • Insulate, or conversely provide ventilation against overheating.

Hours 8–24

  • Economise on light and batteries.
  • Listen to the radio to a schedule (for example, 10 minutes every hour) — to save batteries.
  • Draw up a plan for the next 24 hours.
  • Keep the children occupied.
  • Do not open external doors unnecessarily.

Water rationing in the shelter

Situation Ration
Stock unknown, no excursion possible 1–1.5 l/person/day (survival; capacity for work declines)
Stock for 3+ days 2–3 l/person/day
Large stock, a source available 4+ l/person/day

⚠️ Do not economise on water in fever, diarrhoea, burns or blood loss — that hastens death. ⚠️ Do not drink less than 1 l/day for more than 2–3 days under any circumstances.


STAGE 7. RADIATION: UNITS, INSTRUMENTS, INTERPRETATION

7.1. Four different things that all get called "radiation"

Confusing them is the source of most dangerous mistakes.

Concept What it measures SI unit Old unit Rain analogy
Activity How many disintegrations per second occur in the material becquerel (Bq) = 1 disintegration/s curie (Ci); 1 Ci = 3.7·10¹⁰ Bq How many drops are falling from the cloud
Absorbed dose How much energy the material (tissue) absorbed gray (Gy) = 1 J/kg rad; 1 Gy = 100 rad How much water soaked into your clothing
Equivalent / effective dose Absorbed dose corrected for the biological harm of different radiation types and organ sensitivity sievert (Sv) rem; 1 Sv = 100 rem How ill it makes you
Dose rate Dose per unit time Sv/h, mSv/h, µSv/h (also Gy/h) R/h, rad/h, rem/h How hard it is raining right now

Key relationships (learn these)

1 Sv   = 1000 mSv = 1,000,000 µSv
1 Gy   = 100 rad
1 Sv   = 100 rem
1 rem  = 10 mSv
1 R (roentgen) ≈ 1 rem ≈ 10 mSv  for gamma radiation and the whole body
1 R/h  ≈ 10 mSv/h
10 R/h ≈ 100 mSv/h = 0.1 Sv/h   ← the FEMA "dangerous fallout" boundary

FEMA PG 3rd ed. explicitly uses the simplification: 1 R of exposure ≈ 1 rem of whole-body dose ≈ 1 rad ≈ 10 mSv. For fallout gamma radiation this is acceptable.

Confidence: high — for gamma radiation and uniform whole-body exposure. For alpha and neutron radiation the Gy↔Sv relationship is different (a weighting factor of 20 for alpha, 2–20 for neutrons).

For gamma radiation, Gy and Sv coincide numerically

For gamma and beta radiation the weighting factor is 1, so 1 Gy = 1 Sv. In the fallout scenario they can be treated as the same thing. For alpha radiation (only when taken internally) 1 Gy = 20 Sv.

7.2. Why Bq and Sv cannot be compared

A common and dangerous error: "500 Bq/kg in milk — is that a lot or a little?"

Becquerels tell you how much radioactive material is there. Sieverts tell you how much harm it will do to you.

The conversion between them depends on: * which nuclide it is (caesium, strontium, iodine all differ); * whether it has got inside you or is irradiating you from outside; * the person's age (children receive a greater dose from the same quantity); * how much of it you have eaten.

Practical reference: the Codex Alimentarius (FAO/WHO) sets, for trade in food after a radiological accident: * 1000 Bq/kg for the sum of Cs-134 + Cs-137 ("other foods"); * 100 Bq/kg for Sr-90 and I-131; * separate, stricter levels for infant food.

Confidence: high — these are the official international levels. National standards (Japan after Fukushima, the EU, the US FDA) differ, sometimes several-fold, because they build in different assumptions about the fraction of contaminated food in the diet.

7.3. Reference dose scale

⚠️ There is no "safe threshold" below which the risk is zero. The international consensus (ICRP) works from the no-threshold assumption: any dose adds some additional cancer risk. What follows is a scale for understanding orders of magnitude, not permission to receive these doses.

Dose (whole body) What it is
~0.1 µSv A single dental X-ray
~2.4 mSv/year The world average natural background (UN/UNSCEAR). The range by region is 1–10 mSv/year, higher in places
~0.02–0.1 mSv A chest X-ray
1 mSv/year The limit for the public from man-made sources (ICRP, excluding natural background and medicine)
~2–7 mSv A CT scan (one examination)
20 mSv/year The occupational exposure limit (ICRP, averaged over 5 years)
10 mSv over 4 days EPA PAG: the level at which evacuation or sheltering is justified. The range is 10–50 mSv (1–5 rem)
50 mSv The maximum in any one year for an occupational worker (ICRP)
20–100 mSv The ICRP range of "reference levels" for an emergency situation
100 mSv The level above which an increase in cancer risk is statistically reliably observed
250 mSv (25 rem) EPA: the guideline for rescuers saving lives; above this only knowingly and voluntarily
300 mGy (0.3 Gy) The threshold for the first, mild symptoms of acute radiation syndrome (CDC)
700 mGy (0.7 Gy) The threshold for the full bone-marrow form of ARS (CDC)
1 Gy Nausea/vomiting in 5–30 % (FEMA). Mortality without treatment <5 %
2 Gy Vomiting in 60 %. Capacity for work is lost — FEMA warns rescuers
3 Gy Vomiting in 75 %. Mortality without treatment 30–50 %, with treatment 15–30 %
3.5–4.5 Gy LD50/60 — the dose that kills 50 % without medical care within 60 days. FEMA quotes ~4 Gy (400 rad), noting in a footnote that some sources give 3.5 Gy
6 Gy Mortality without treatment 95–100 %, with full treatment ~50 %
>6 Gy Survival is unlikely even with treatment (FEMA)
10 Gy The gastrointestinal form of ARS, almost always fatal (CDC: LD100 ~10 Gy)
>20–50 Gy The cardiovascular/cerebral form, death within hours to days

⚠️ Combined injuries: when radiation is combined with trauma and burns, the lethal dose falls. FEMA: the lethality of a 4 Gy dose in people with concomitant injuries corresponds to roughly 2.5 Gy in healthy people.

7.4. The dose-rate scale — a table for interpreting a dosimeter

⚠️ This is not a "safe/dangerous" table. It is a "how long can I spend here" table.

The main formula:

Accumulated dose = dose rate × time
Dosimeter reading In familiar units What it means Permissible time (guide)
0.05–0.30 µSv/h 0.005–0.03 mR/h Natural background. Normal Unlimited
0.3–1 µSv/h up to 0.1 mR/h Elevated background. May be natural (granite, high altitude) Unlimited in practice
1–10 µSv/h 0.1–1 mR/h Noticeable contamination. Continuously for a month — 0.7–7 mSv Habitable, but look for somewhere cleaner
10–100 µSv/h 1–10 mR/h Substantial contamination. 0.1 mSv/h = 2.4 mSv/day Days to weeks; minimise time spent there
100 µSv/h (0.1 mSv/h) 10 mR/h The "hot zone" boundary in international emergency-response practice (0.01 R/h) Limit it; work in protective equipment
1 mSv/h 100 mR/h 24 mSv/day. An occupational annual limit in 20 hours Hours. Only if necessary
10 mSv/h 1 R/h 240 mSv/day Tens of minutes. Critical tasks only
100 mSv/h (0.1 Sv/h) 10 R/h The FEMA "dangerous fallout" (DF) zone boundary ~2.5 hours to reach 250 mSv (the rescuer limit)
1 Sv/h 100 R/h Observed in the first 4–6 hours a few kilometres from ground zero (FEMA) ~25 minutes to 0.4 Gy; ~4 hours = a fatal dose
10 Sv/h 1000 R/h Possible near ground zero in the first hour A fatal dose in ~25 minutes
Off-scale OL / --- / continuous tone LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. The instrument does not know how bad it is here 0

How to calculate quickly in your head

Dose rate 1 mSv/h → 1 mSv in 1 hour.
Dose rate 100 mSv/h → 16.7 mSv in 10 minutes; 100 mSv in an hour.
Dose rate 1 Sv/h → 16.7 mSv in 1 minute; 250 mSv in 15 minutes (the rescuer limit).

The "250 mSv" rule:
  Permissible minutes = 250 / (dose rate in mSv/h) × 60
  Example: 500 mSv/h → 250/500 × 60 = 30 minutes.

Keep this calculation on paper in the shelter.

AN IMPORTANT WARNING ABOUT THE NUMBER 250 mSv. This is not a "safe dose" and not permission to accumulate it. 250 mSv (25 rem) is an EPA guideline for professional rescuers voluntarily going to save other people's lives, fully informed of the risk. It is an upper bound for an exceptional task, not a budget for everyday errands.

For ordinary decisions ("should I go for water") work to values 10–50 times smaller, and be guided by the principle: every dose carries risk; take the minimum needed for survival. Use the formula to understand the order of magnitude of the permissible time, and then take a quarter of it or less.

7.5. Instrument types — what to choose and what to believe

Instrument Measures Range Use after a detonation
Geiger counter (domestic) Counts → dose rate Often 0.05–100 µSv/h (too little!) Contamination of surfaces, food, water after the decay. ⛔ Useless in the zone during the first 24 hours
Geiger counter (professional, compensated) Dose rate 0.1 µSv/h – 1 Sv/h and above ✅ Universal
Scintillation detector Very sensitive detection, spectrum Usually a low upper limit Finding sources, identifying nuclides. ⚠️ Gets swamped
Ionisation chamber Dose rate High levels ✅ The best instrument for large fields, but rare and expensive
Personal electronic dosimeter (PED) Accumulated dose + rate Varies ✅ Essential for any excursion
Direct-reading "pen" dosimeter (DKP-50 and equivalents) Accumulated dose Usually 2–50 R (20–500 mSv) ✅ Works without batteries. Needs a charger
TLD badge / film Accumulated dose Wide ⛔ Requires laboratory processing — useless in real time

7.6. How to measure correctly

Dose rate (where it is dangerous)

  1. Hold the instrument at chest or waist height, vertical, detector facing away from you.
  2. Stand at least 1 metre from walls, ground and objects (otherwise you are measuring one point, not the field).
  3. Wait for the reading to stabilise (10–60 seconds for a GM counter; the lower the field, the longer).
  4. Record: the value, the unit, the time, the place.

Contamination (is this thing dirty)

  1. Hold the instrument with the window/detector towards the surface, 1–2 cm away, without touching (or you will contaminate the instrument).
  2. Move it slowly, 2–5 cm/s.
  3. Compare with the "background" in a clean place.
  4. ⚠️ Wrap the detector in thin cling film — it protects the instrument from contamination and barely affects gamma (but reduces sensitivity to beta).

Checking water and food

A domestic dosimeter will only detect heavy contamination. The "direct measurement" method: 1. Measure the background in a clean place and write it down. 2. Place a container of the food/water (at least 1 l) hard against the detector. 3. Measure for 5–10 minutes, averaging. 4. If the reading is reliably above the background — the product is contaminated, find a replacement. 5. ⚠️ If the reading equals the background, that does not prove it is clean. Domestic instruments cannot sense levels of the order of hundreds of Bq/kg.

Confidence: high — domestic dosimeters are fundamentally incapable of reliably measuring food contamination levels; that requires spectrometers with lead shielding.

7.7. Saturation and false confidence

This can kill you.

The saturation (fold-back) effect in a Geiger counter: at very high intensity the tube cannot recover between pulses. The instrument reads lower and lower as the real field rises, all the way to zero.

How to recognise it: * The readings fall as you approach the suspected source. * The readings are "stuck" at one value. * The instrument is silent where every other sign says it should be dirty.

What to do: 1. Know your instrument's upper limit. Write it on the casing. 2. When approaching any unknown place, watch the trend, not the absolute number. 3. At any strange behaviour from the instrument, assume it is dangerous here and leave. 4. Carry two instruments of different types if you can.

Other sources of false confidence:

Illusion Reality
"The dosimeter reads low, so it is safe" It may not see alpha, may see beta poorly, may be saturated, may be faulty, may be uncalibrated
"The instrument is expensive, so it is accurate" Without energy compensation, the error is a factor of 2–5 for soft gamma
"I measured in one place, so I have measured everywhere" Fallout lands in patches. A downpipe may hold 100 times more than a spot three metres away
"The app on my phone shows normal" ⛔ Camera-based "dosimeters" are not fit for life-or-death decisions
"I have no symptoms, so the dose is small" A dose of 1–2 Gy can pass without marked early symptoms and then suppress blood cell production 2–4 weeks later

7.8. If you have no dosimeter at all

Act by time and rules, not by how things feel:

  1. Assume you are in a fallout zone if the detonation was within 30 km and the wind is towards you.
  2. Sit tight for at least 24 hours, preferably 48–72.
  3. All excursions short, against a list, with the skin fully covered and decontamination on entry.
  4. Eat and drink only from sealed sources.
  5. Listen to the radio — the authorities (if there are any) will announce the zones.
  6. Look for a dosimeter as a priority resource (see STAGE 44).

STAGE 8. RADIOACTIVE FALLOUT AND ITS DECAY

8.1. Where fallout comes from

A surface (or near-surface) burst: the fireball touches the ground, vaporising and sucking up thousands of tonnes of soil, concrete and metal. Radioactive fission products condense onto those particles. The cloud rises for kilometres and the particles then fall back.

An air burst (the fireball does not touch the ground): there is almost no local fallout, or many times less, because the radioactive products have nothing to condense onto — they go into the stratosphere and fall out globally over years at low concentrations.

Confidence: high — this is the key physical fact. Buddemeier/LLNL: "If the warhead is detonated in the air, the fallout potential is greatly reduced or eliminated."

Practical conclusion: a strike on area targets (a city) is more often an air burst → little local fallout but enormous destruction. A strike on hardened targets (missile silos, bunkers, ports) is a surface burst → maximum fallout. In a large-scale war there will be both.

8.2. How fallout is distributed

Factor Effect
Winds aloft ⚠️ The wind at 5–15 km altitude can blow in a different direction and 3–10 times faster than at ground level. This is why the surface wind cannot be used to predict the plume (a direct LLNL statement)
Yield Greater yield → the cloud rises higher → a wider and longer plume
Burst height Lower → more fallout
Soil type Siliceous rock and sand give large particles (rapid deposition close in); carbonate soils (coral, limestone) give fine ones carried further. Water has a specific effect of its own
Rain and snow ⚠️ They wash particles out of the cloud, creating local "hot spots" many times above the surrounding level. Rain while the cloud passes is very bad
Terrain Particles accumulate in hollows, in drainage, on flat roofs, in puddles, in gutters

Zone sizes (for orientation, ~10 kt, surface burst)

Per FEMA PG 3rd ed.: * The dangerous fallout (DF, > 10 R/h) zone: extends 16–32 km from ground zero; near ground zero in the first 4–6 hours levels above 100 R/h are possible. * The zone above 0.01 R/h (10 mR/h) — the "hot zone" — may extend hundreds of kilometres in the first hours. * ⚠️ For a detonation 10 times larger (100 kt) the damage zones grow by roughly a factor of two, not ten. The fallout zone grows more than that.

Confidence: high for 10 kt; scaling to megatonne weapons gives zones several times larger — the specific figures depend heavily on the scenario.

⚠️ How much time there really is before fallout arrives

The "10–15 minutes and more" estimate (LLNL/FEMA) applies to a typical point in the fallout zone at some distance from ground zero. The reality:

Where you are When fallout arrives
In the severe damage zone (within ~1–2 km for a ~10 kt detonation) ⚠️ Practically at once, along with the debris. ⛔ There may be no time to move at all
2–10 km downwind 10–30 minutes
10–30 km downwind 30 minutes – 2 hours
50–150 km downwind 2–8 hours
Hundreds of km downwind Hours to a day, at low levels
Not downwind (to the side or upwind) ⚠️ It may not come at all — but there is no way to check that in advance, the winds aloft blow differently from those at ground level

Confidence: medium — the specific timings depend on yield, burst height and the speed of the winds aloft, and may differ several-fold.

Practical conclusion: do not count on "I have 15 minutes". Assume you have as much time as it takes to reach the nearest adequate shelter, and not one minute more. The closer you are to ground zero, the smaller the margin.

8.3. The 7–10 rule and the decay law

Statement

For every sevenfold increase in the time since the detonation, the dose rate falls by roughly a factor of 10.

The physical basis

The decay of fission products is approximately described by the Way–Wigner (1948) power law:

R(t) = R(1) × t^(-1.2)

where R(1) is the dose rate 1 hour after the detonation and t is the time in hours.

Decay table (adapted from Glasstone & Dolan, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 1977; reproduced in FEMA PG 3rd ed.)

Taking the dose rate at 1 hour as 1000 arbitrary units (R/h).

Time Dose rate Fraction of the 1-hour level
1 hour 1000 100 %
1.5 hours 610 61 %
2 hours 400 40 %
3 hours 230 23 %
5 hours 130 13 %
6 hours 100 10 %
7 hours ~92 ~10 % ← the 7–10 rule
10 hours 63 6.3 %
15 hours 40 4 %
24 hours (1 day) 23 2.3 %
36 hours 15 1.5 %
48 hours (2 days) 10 1 % ← 7×7=49 h
72 hours (3 days) 6.2 0.62 %
100 hours (~4 days) 4.0 0.40 %
200 hours (~8 days) 1.7 0.17 %
343 hours (~2 weeks) ~1.0 0.1 % ← 7×7×7
400 hours (~17 days) 0.69 0.069 %
600 hours (~25 days) 0.40 0.040 %
800 hours (~33 days) 0.31 0.031 %
1000 hours (~42 days) 0.24 0.024 %

Where the rule applies

Applies: * After fallout has completely settled at the point in question (usually after a few hours to a day). * To the mixture of fission products from a nuclear detonation. * Over the interval from roughly 30 minutes to 6 months after the detonation.

Accuracy (per Glasstone & Dolan, cited by FEMA): * within ±25 % — out to about 2 weeks; * within a factor of 2 — out to about 6 months.

Confidence: high — this is an official citation from FEMA PG 3rd ed.

⛔ Where the rule does NOT apply

Situation Why
While fallout is still arriving The dose rate is rising, not falling. The rule only works after deposition
A nuclear power plant accident A different nuclide mix: more long-lived species (Cs-137, Sr-90), fewer very short-lived ones. The decay is far slower. ⛔ Do not apply the 7–10 rule to an NPP release
Many months to years later What remains is the "tail" of long-lived nuclides (Cs-137 with a 30-year half-life). Further decay almost stops
For internal contamination The rule describes the external gamma field, not the nuclide content of food
Induced activity near ground zero A different set of nuclides, a different law
After rain or disturbance Patches are redistributed; locally things can get worse

⚠️ The most important warning

FEMA warns directly:

"Significant decay does not necessarily mean low radioactivity. The initial level may be so high that the residual radioactivity remains dangerous even after several days."

Example: if it was 1000 R/h at 1 hour, then after 2 weeks it will be ~1 R/h (≈10 mSv/h). That is 1000 times less — and it is still a level at which 240 mSv accumulates in a day.

8.4. Worked examples (purely to understand the mechanics)

⚠️ These examples do not allow you to predict your actual situation. They only teach you to calculate.

Example 1: working backwards

Given: 3 hours after the detonation the dosimeter reads 20 mSv/h. Question: what to expect after 24 hours?

From the table: at t=3 h the relative level is 230; at t=24 h it is 23.
Ratio: 23/230 = 0.1
Answer: roughly 20 × 0.1 = 2 mSv/h at 24 hours.

Check against the 7–10 rule: 3 h × 7 = 21 h ≈ one day; the level has fallen by a factor of 10. It agrees.

Example 2: how much will I accumulate if I stay

Given: 6 hours after the detonation, the shelter reads 0.5 mSv/h. Question: how much will accumulate over the next 18 hours (up to the 24-hour mark)?

Integrating the power law t^(-1.2) gives:

Dose over the period = R(1)/(-0.2) × [t2^(-0.2) - t1^(-0.2)]
                     = 5 × R(1) × [t1^(-0.2) - t2^(-0.2)]

First find R(1): R(6) = R(1) × 6^(-1.2)
6^(-1.2) ≈ 0.1165  →  R(1) = 0.5 / 0.1165 ≈ 4.29 mSv/h

Dose from 6 to 24 h = 5 × 4.29 × [6^(-0.2) - 24^(-0.2)]
6^(-0.2) ≈ 0.6988 ; 24^(-0.2) ≈ 0.5296
= 21.45 × 0.1692 ≈ 3.6 mSv

Conclusion: over 18 hours in this shelter about 3.6 mSv will accumulate — not much. But outside, at PF=1, it would be 10–20 times more.

Example 3: the price of going outside

Given: at 12 hours it is 5 mSv/h outside and 0.25 mSv/h in the basement (PF=20). Question: what does a 30-minute excursion cost?

30 min outside: 5 mSv/h × 0.5 h = 2.5 mSv
The same 30 min in the basement: 0.25 × 0.5 = 0.125 mSv
Cost of the excursion: 2.5 - 0.125 ≈ 2.4 mSv

Interpretation: 2.4 mSv is roughly a year of natural background. A reasonable price for water or medicine, an unreasonable one for curiosity.

Example 4: when will it be "like it was before"

Strictly speaking — never completely, because of Cs-137 (30 years) and Sr-90 (28.8 years). But:

The 7-10 rule from 1 hour:
  ×7    = 7 hours     → 1/10
  ×49   = 2 days      → 1/100
  ×343  = 2 weeks     → 1/1,000
  ×2401 = 100 days    → 1/10,000
  ×16807 = 2 years    → 1/100,000 (by now a badly overstated estimate of the decay;
                        in reality it levels off on the long-lived nuclide plateau)

Practical answer: the main danger of acute exposure passes within 2–4 weeks. What remains after that is the problem of contamination of soil, water and food by long-lived nuclides — a task for years and decades, solved not by sheltering but by the choice of food and territory.

8.5. What to do with this knowledge in practice

Time since the detonation What is happening Your action
0–15 min Fallout has not yet arrived (the near zone) Run to shelter
15 min – 2 hours Fallout arriving, the dose rate rises to its maximum Do not go out under any circumstances except fire
2–12 hours Rapid decay (by a factor of 5–10) Sit tight. Organise daily life
12–24 hours Decay continues (another halving) Sit tight. Prepare the plan for going out
24–72 hours Level at 1–2 % of the 1-hour value Short excursions for water/resources if necessary
3–14 days Level at 0.1–0.6 % Longer excursions; planning an evacuation
2 weeks – 3 months Slow decay Ordinary life with restrictions: avoid dust, wash hands, check food
> 3 months The long-lived "plateau" A food-chain problem, not an external exposure one

8.6. Hot spots — where it is dangerous even months later

⚠️ Avoid or clean up:

Place Why
Downpipes and their outlets They collect all the water from the roof, particles included
Flat roofs, gutters Particles are not washed away
Puddles, sumps, pits The water evaporated, the particles stayed
Hollows, gullies, ditches Runoff concentrates them
Sediment at the bottom of containers and water bodies Concentration
Dust in ventilation and filters Concentration
Moss, lichens, fungi They actively accumulate caesium
The top 1–5 cm of soil The bulk of the fallout
Dust traps, doormats Tracked-in material

What to do: strip the top layer locally (with a spade, into sacks), take it away or bury it deep somewhere aside; cover with a clean layer; do not raise dust; work in a respirator and gloves; decontaminate afterwards.


STAGE 9. DECONTAMINATION

9.1. The "I HAVE BEEN OUTSIDE" procedure

Principle: get inside under protection first, clean up afterwards. Do not stand outside brushing yourself down.

STEP 1. AT THE ENTRANCE (dirty zone), 30–60 seconds
  □ Brush yourself down / sweep yourself off (better, have another person do it
    with a brush or cloth, standing upwind)
  □ Take off your shoes. Leave them in the dirty zone
  □ Hold your breath / do not inhale while brushing off

STEP 2. REMOVING CLOTHING (porch / hallway / separate room), 2–3 minutes
  □ Remove SLOWLY, without shaking, turning it inside out
    (contaminated side inwards)
  □ Do NOT pull clothing off over the head — CUT it off with scissors
    (otherwise you drag the dirt across your face and hair)
  □ Put it in a heavy-duty sack and tie it shut
  □ Take the sack AS FAR AS POSSIBLE from people (another room,
    the stairs, outside the door, out of the window)
  □ Do not touch your face with your hands until you have washed them
  → This removes UP TO 90 % of the radioactive material (CDC/Ready.gov)

STEP 3. WASHING, 5–10 minutes
  If you have water:
  □ A WARM shower (not hot — hot water opens the pores and increases
    absorption; not cold — it washes off less well)
  □ PLENTY OF SOAP, gentle strokes from top to bottom
  □ ⛔ DO NOT SCRUB UNTIL THE SKIN IS RED, do not use stiff brushes, scrubs
    or abrasives: damaged skin lets contamination inside
  □ HAIR: shampoo. ⛔ NO CONDITIONER — it binds particles
    to the hair (a direct CDC instruction)
  □ Pay particular attention to: hair, behind the ears, neck, armpits, hands, UNDER THE NAILS,
    skin folds, feet
  □ COVER wounds and grazes with waterproof film/plaster BEFORE washing
  □ Wash from top to bottom so dirty water does not run over clean skin

  If water is scarce:
  □ Wet wipe / damp cloth. Wipe ONCE in one direction,
    turn the wipe over, do not rub back and forth
  □ Order: face → neck → ears → hands → other exposed areas
  □ Used wipes into the sack

  If there is no water:
  □ Dry cloth, wipe down. Comb the hair and then
    dispose of the comb
  □ Sticky tape on skin and hair — it genuinely collects particles

STEP 4. FACE AND MUCOUS MEMBRANES
  □ Eyes: rinse with clean water or saline, from the inner corner
    outwards. ⛔ Do not rub
  □ Nose: blow your nose carefully into a tissue (keep the tissue —
    it indicates what you have inhaled), rinse the nostrils with water
  □ Mouth: rinse with clean water, SPIT IT OUT, do not swallow. Brush your teeth
  □ Ears: wipe the outside. ⛔ Do not push cotton buds deep inside

STEP 5. WOUNDS
  □ Irrigate copiously with clean water/saline (this is the main thing)
  □ Irrigate AWAY from the wound, not into it
  □ Remove visible particles with tweezers
  □ Treat with antiseptic, cover with a dressing
  □ ⚠️ The wound is dealt with FIRST, before general washing, and covered

STEP 6. CLEAN CLOTHING AND CROSSING OVER
  □ Put on clean clothing that has been kept in a sealed bag
  □ Move into the clean zone
  □ Wash your hands again

STEP 7. CHECKING (if you have a dosimeter)
  □ Measure the background in the clean room
  □ Pass the detector along the body at 1–2 cm
  □ Pay particular attention to: hair, shoulders, hands, feet
  □ If it is above background — repeat washing of the problem areas (no more than 2–3 times)
  □ ⚠️ If it does not fall after 3 attempts, it is probably internal
    contamination, or the instrument is seeing the background outside. Further rubbing is harmful

9.2. What you must NOT do

⛔ Mistake Why
Scrubbing the skin hard, with scrub, brush or abrasive Damaged skin stops being a barrier; contamination goes inside
Hot water It opens the pores and increases absorption; burns
Hair conditioner It binds particles to the hair (CDC)
Alcohol, solvents, petrol, acetone on the skin They dissolve the skin barrier and increase absorption; toxic; flammable
Chlorine bleach on the skin Chemical burn. It does not improve effectiveness
Washing wounds with soap and a brush It drives particles deeper; damages tissue
Shaving hair off with a razor Micro-cuts → a way inside. Cutting it with scissors is fine
Standing outside brushing yourself down thoroughly You are accumulating gamma dose. Inside first
Leaving dirty clothing in the living area A permanent source of exposure
Throwing dirty clothing into the communal rubbish next to people It creates a hot spot
Vacuuming dry radioactive dust with an ordinary vacuum cleaner It discharges fine particles into the air. You need a HEPA filter or wet cleaning
Refusing people shelter because they are "contaminated" ⛔ It kills them and does you no good. FEMA/LLNL: let them in and help them brush down
Gastric lavage/inducing vomiting "to get the radiation out" Dangerous and ineffective. Aspiration kills
Drinking alcohol, iodine or "tinctures" for "protection" It does not work. Alcoholic iodine solution is ⛔ poisonous if swallowed

9.3. Decontaminating objects and spaces

Object Method
Clothing Soak in water with detergent, rinse 2–3 times, pour the water away outside the dwelling. ⚠️ Do not wash it with clean clothing. Effectiveness is incomplete — better to set it aside for months
Footwear Wash the soles, brush + water. Leave it in the dirty zone
Tools, metal Wash with water and detergent; for ingrained contamination, gentle abrasive rubbing (on metal only)
Hard surfaces Wet cleaning: wipe, do not sweep. Cloth → sack. Detergent
Carpets, fabric, porous materials ⚠️ Almost impossible to clean. Roll them up and take them out
Electronics Wipe with a damp cloth. Do not wet
The shelter floor Wet cleaning daily. A mat at the entrance, changed regularly
A car Pressure-wash the outside; the interior by wet cleaning; replace the cabin filter, working in a respirator
Walls, building roof Hose down from the top downwards (the runoff carries it all to one place — which then becomes a hot spot). ⚠️ Working on a roof = a high dose
Soil Strip the top 3–5 cm, remove or bury it ≥ 0.5 m deep somewhere aside; or plough deeply (dilution) — see STAGE 24

9.4. Decontaminating animals

  1. Gloves and a respirator for yourself.
  2. Dry brushing/wiping first — it removes most of it.
  3. Wash in warm water with shampoo, without conditioner.
  4. Priority: paws and muzzle (the animal licks itself).
  5. Ears — outside only, carefully.
  6. Dry with a towel; the towel goes into a sack.
  7. ⚠️ If the animal has eaten or licked contamination, that is internal contamination and there is nothing to be done in the field. Provide clean food and water.

9.5. Internal contamination — what can actually be done

Measure Against what Note
Potassium iodide (KI) Radioactive iodine (I-131) → thyroid See STAGE 10. This and nothing else
Prussian blue (Radiogardase) Caesium-137, thallium A prescription medicine; it binds caesium in the gut and speeds elimination by roughly 2–3 times. Probably unobtainable
Ca-DTPA / Zn-DTPA Plutonium, americium, curium Given intravenously by medical staff. Unobtainable
Sodium alginate, calcium salts Strontium-90 They reduce absorption in the gut. Confidence: medium — effectiveness is limited and works best if taken early
Copious fluids Tritium, some soluble nuclides Speeds elimination in urine
Clean food and water Everything The main and most available measure
Do not eat, drink or smoke in a contaminated area Everything Free and effective

There is no "anti-radiation pill", no "anti-radiation" diet, no agent that removes all nuclides. Iodine, vodka, red wine, bicarbonate of soda and activated charcoal do not protect against gamma radiation and do not remove caesium.


STAGE 10. POTASSIUM IODIDE (KI)

⚠️ KI is a narrowly specialised agent, not "the anti-radiation pill". Misunderstanding it is a source of lethally dangerous complacency.

10.1. What it does

The thyroid gland absorbs iodine from the blood without distinguishing ordinary (stable) from radioactive. Taking a large dose of stable iodine saturates the gland, and it stops absorbing radioactive iodine, which is then excreted in the urine.

This is called thyroid blocking.

10.2. What it protects against

✅ Only against radioactive iodine (mainly I-131, half-life 8.02 days) entering the body by inhalation or with food and water (especially milk).

✅ It protects only the thyroid gland.

Effectiveness: taken a few hours before, or within 1–2 hours after, radioiodine intake, it blocks more than 90 % of uptake. Effectiveness falls rapidly after 4 hours and is minimal 12 hours after a single contamination episode.

Confidence: high — FDA/REMM data.

10.3. What it does NOT protect against

⛔ KI does NOT protect against Why
External gamma radiation That is physics, not chemistry. You need mass
Caesium-137, strontium-90, plutonium, every other nuclide KI acts only on iodine metabolism
Acute radiation syndrome ARS is caused by external whole-body exposure
Cancer of other organs The thyroid only
Burns, injuries, blast Obviously
Skin contamination That needs decontamination

KI is not a substitute for shelter. Shelter saves your life; KI saves your thyroid.

10.4. Dosages (per FDA guidance, reproduced by REMM/HHS)

Age group KI dose, mg Predicted thyroid dose threshold
Adults over 40 130 ≥ 5 Gy (500 cGy)
Adults 18–40 130 ≥ 0.1 Gy (10 cGy)
Pregnant and breastfeeding women 130 ≥ 0.05 Gy (5 cGy)
Adolescents 12–18 65 ≥ 0.05 Gy (5 cGy)
Children 3–12 65 ≥ 0.05 Gy (5 cGy)
Children from 1 month to 3 years 32 ≥ 0.05 Gy (5 cGy)
Neonates under 1 month 16 ≥ 0.05 Gy (5 cGy)

FDA note: adolescents weighing ≥ 70 kg (150 lb) take the full adult dose of 130 mg.

Confidence: high — this is the official FDA table. ⚠️ WHO recommendations and those of other countries' national authorities may differ in thresholds and schedules (for example, WHO uses somewhat different age groups and thresholds). If your country has issued official guidance, follow it.

Available forms

  • 130 mg and 65 mg tablets — they can be split to obtain smaller doses.
  • Oral solution: usually 65 mg in 1 ml, with a dropper marked 1 / 0.5 / 0.25 ml.
  • For small children a tablet can be crushed and mixed with milk, juice or water.

10.5. When to use it

Situation Action
There is an official instruction from the authorities to take KI ✅ Take it to the schedule
It is known that a radioiodine release has occurred (an NPP accident, a surface nuclear detonation nearby) and you are in the plume ✅ Sensible to take it if you have it
The detonation is far away, the wind is in another direction, many days have passed ❌ Little point
More than 24 hours have passed since a single intake ❌ Minimal benefit
"Just in case, in case of war" ⛔ No. KI has side effects and it is not infinite

Optimal timing: a few hours before radioiodine intake, or within the first 1–2 hours afterwards.

Repeat dosing

  • A single dose is usually enough (it protects for about 24 hours).
  • Repeat every 24 hours only if radioiodine intake is continuing and there is no way to evacuate or take shelter. The FDA permits repeat dosing for up to 7–14 days where contamination continues.
  • ⚠️ The FDA does not recommend repeat doses for pregnant or breastfeeding women or neonates — neonates risk hypothyroidism. If repeat dosing is necessary, thyroid function must be monitored.

10.6. Contraindications and risks

⛔ Do not take it if you have:

  • known allergy/hypersensitivity to iodine;
  • dermatitis herpetiformis (Duhring's disease);
  • hypocomplementaemic vasculitis.

⚠️ With caution (only where clearly necessary and, if possible, under supervision):

  • nodular goitre with cardiovascular disease;
  • multinodular goitre;
  • Graves' disease (diffuse toxic goitre);
  • autoimmune thyroiditis;
  • taking medicines that affect the thyroid;
  • severe renal failure (risk of hyperkalaemia).

FDA note: a seafood allergy does not mean an iodine allergy.

Side effects

Common and mild Rare and serious
A metallic taste in the mouth Allergic reaction, angio-oedema
Nausea, stomach upset Thyrotoxicosis (in predisposed individuals)
Rash Hypothyroidism (especially in neonates on repeat doses)
Inflammation of the salivary glands Hyperkalaemia

Risk/benefit: for children and young people the benefit greatly outweighs the risk. For people over 40 the risk of thyroid cancer from radioiodine is low while the risk of side effects is higher — which is why the FDA recommends KI for them only at very high predicted doses (≥5 Gy to the thyroid).

10.7. ⛔ What you must NOT substitute for KI

⛔ Dangerous substitute Why
Alcoholic iodine solution (tincture of iodine) taken internally POISONOUS. It causes gastrointestinal burns and can kill. NEVER drink it
Lugol's solution used off-label The concentration is not designed for this use; overdose
Iodised salt The iodine content is 1000+ times less than needed. To get 130 mg you would have to eat kilograms of salt — which is lethal
Kelp, iodine supplements The content is unpredictable, the dose is uncontrolled
Painting iodine on the skin Absorption is unpredictable, effectiveness for this purpose is unproven, and it risks burns
Betadine/povidone-iodine taken internally ⛔ Toxic if swallowed

Confidence: high — drinking tincture of iodine is described in the medical literature as a cause of poisoning.

10.8. Storage

  • KI tablets: shelf life is usually 5–7 years; manufacturers often confirm that potency is retained for longer under correct storage (dry, cool, in the original packaging).
  • Signs of deterioration: darkening, softening, an unusual smell.
  • Solution has a shorter shelf life.

10.9. KI summary card

KI PROTECTS:      the thyroid gland from radioactive IODINE
KI DOES NOT PROTECT: against anything else

WHEN:   a few hours before, or in the first 1-2 hours after, radioiodine intake;
        on instruction from the authorities, or given an obvious release nearby

DOSE:   adults and adolescents >70 kg — 130 mg
        adolescents 12-18 and children 3-12 — 65 mg
        children 1 month - 3 years — 32 mg
        neonates under 1 month — 16 mg
        over 40 — only at very high doses

REPEAT: usually NOT needed. If it is — once every 24 h,
        NOT for pregnant/breastfeeding women or neonates

DO NOT TAKE IF: iodine allergy, Duhring's dermatitis, vasculitis

NEVER:  drink tincture of iodine, or eat iodised salt instead of KI

THE MAIN POINT: KI is not a substitute for shelter. Shelter saves your life.

PART III. BASIC SURVIVAL

STAGE 11. WATER

The rule of three: 3 minutes without air, 3 days without water, 3 weeks without food. But in a disaster people more often die not of thirst but of dirty water.

11.1. Hierarchy of water sources

From the safest to the most dangerous.

Rank Source Risk of radionuclide contamination Microbiological risk Chemical risk Action
1 Bottled water with a factory seal None (if it was sealed) None None ✅ Drink it. Wipe the neck before opening
2 Water from the water heater None Low Low (sediment) ✅ Drink it. Run off the first cloudy portion
3 Water in the pipes inside the house None Low Possible off-taste ✅ Drink it
4 Toilet cistern (not the bowl!) None Low ⚠️ Only if tablets/fresheners are NOT used ✅ Disinfect and drink
5 Tinned liquids (juices, stewed fruit, the brine from tinned vegetables) None None None ✅ Drink
6 Mains water after the catastrophe ⚠️ Possible (open intakes) ⚠️ High (loss of pressure → back-siphonage) ⚠️ Possible Always disinfect
7 A sealed borehole (deep, artesian) Low Low Depends on geology ✅ The best long-term source. Check it
8 A well (shallow, dug) ⚠️ Medium (surface runoff) ⚠️ High Medium Cover it, disinfect
9 A spring Medium Medium Low Disinfect
10 Reservoirs, water towers Low if covered Medium Medium Disinfect
11 Snow (fresh, from deep in the layer, not the top) ⚠️ The top layer collects fallout Low Low ⚠️ Remove the top 10–20 cm, take from below. Melt and disinfect
12 Rainwater collected AFTER the cloud has passed ⚠️ The first rains wash fallout out of the air Medium (roof, gutters) Medium (roofing materials) ⚠️ Do not collect the first rains. Discard the first 5–10 minutes of every shower
13 River, stream (flowing) ⚠️ Medium; diluted by the flow High ⚠️ Depends on what is upstream Filtration + disinfection
14 Lake, pond (standing) ⚠️ High (accumulation in the sediment) Very high Medium Take from the surface, not the bottom. Filtration + disinfection
15 Swimming pool ⚠️ If open, it has collected fallout Low (chlorine) ⚠️ Chlorine, algicides, stabilisers (cyanuric acid) ⚠️ Use as utility water. For drinking — only after distillation
16 Sea water Medium Medium Salt DO NOT DRINK. Distillation only
17 Utility water (heating system, industrial) Low Low High — corrosion inhibitors, antifreeze, heavy metals ⛔ Do not drink. Washing and flushing only
18 Water from a car radiator Ethylene glycol is a lethal poison ⛔ Never
19 Standing water in puddles, ditches, basements High Very high High ⛔ Utility water only, after settling
20 Water near industrial sites, filling stations, landfills ⛔ Unknown toxicants ⛔ Do not use

11.2. ⛔ THE MOST IMPORTANT THING ABOUT RADIOACTIVITY AND WATER

BOILING DOES NOT REMOVE RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL. IT CONCENTRATES IT.

The CDC's direct formulation: "You cannot make water that contains fuel, toxic chemicals or radioactive material safe by boiling or disinfecting it."

The mechanism: boiling kills microorganisms (protein denatures). Radioactive atoms are atoms; heat does not destroy them. As some of the water boils away, the concentration of dissolved radionuclides rises.

The same applies to chlorination, iodination and UV treatment — they act only on biology.

What actually removes radionuclides

Method Cs-137 Sr-90 I-131 Uranium/radium Note
Reverse osmosis (RO) Good (90–99 %) Good Moderate–good Good ✅ The best domestic method. Needs pressure and a membrane
Distillation Excellent Excellent ⚠️ Partial (iodine is volatile) Excellent ✅ Reliable, but needs a lot of fuel
Ion exchange Good (cation resin) Good (cation resin) Moderate (anion resin) Good ✅ An industrial method, needs resin
Settling + filtration through soil/sand/clay Partial Partial Weak Partial ⚠️ Particles are removed, dissolved material is not. Better than nothing
Activated charcoal Weak Weak Moderate (for iodine) Weak ⚠️ Do not rely on it
Boiling ⛔ No (concentrates it) ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No Against microbes only
Chlorination / tablets ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No Against microbes only
Mechanical filter 0.1–0.2 µm Partial (what is bound to particles) Partial Weak Weak ⚠️ Removes particles, not dissolved material
Bentonite/clay, zeolite Moderate–good (zeolite binds caesium) Moderate Weak Moderate Confidence: medium for field conditions

Confidence: high for RO, distillation and ion exchange — these are EPA-confirmed technologies for removing radionuclides from drinking water.

A practical hierarchy of decisions about contaminated water

  1. Find water that has not been under the open sky — that solves the problem completely.
  2. Let the water stand for a day, decant the top third carefully, throw away the sediment — this removes most of the particles carrying radionuclides.
  3. Filter it through several layers of cloth, sand, charcoal — this removes more of the particles.
  4. Disinfect (boiling/chlorine) — this removes microbes.
  5. If you have RO or a still — use it.

⚠️ An important reassuring fact: when fallout lands externally on a body of water, heavy dilution works in your favour. A river with a large flow dilutes fallout quickly. A stagnant pond or an open barrel does not.

11.3. Matrix of water treatment methods

Method Bacteria Viruses Protozoa (Giardia, Crypto) Heavy metals Salts Petroleum products/solvents Radionuclides Turbidity
Boiling (1 min; 3 min above 2000 m) ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ⛔ No ⛔ No ⚠️ Partial (volatiles evaporate) No (concentrates) ⛔ No
Chlorine (hypochlorite, bleach) ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ⚠️ Giardia — partially; Cryptosporidium — NO ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No
Chlorine dioxide (tablets) ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Yes (including Crypto, with long contact up to 4 h) ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No
Iodine (tablets, solution) ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ⚠️ Giardia — yes; Crypto — NO ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No
UV treatment (solar SODIS, UV lamp) ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No (turbidity blocks UV)
Mechanical filter 0.1–0.2 µm ✅ Yes No (viruses are smaller) ✅ Yes ⛔ No ⛔ No ⛔ No ⚠️ Partial ✅ Yes
Ceramic candle filter ✅ Yes ⛔ No ✅ Yes ⚠️ Partial (if with silver/carbon) ⛔ No ⚠️ Partial ⚠️ Partial ✅ Yes
Activated charcoal ⛔ No (can become a breeding ground) ⛔ No ⛔ No ⚠️ Partial ⛔ No Yes (its main use) ⚠️ Weak ⚠️ Partial
Reverse osmosis (RO) ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ⚠️ Partial Yes ✅ Yes
Distillation ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ⚠️ Volatiles carry over! Yes (except volatile iodine) ✅ Yes
Settling + decanting ⛔ No ⛔ No ⚠️ Partial ⚠️ Partial ⛔ No ⚠️ Partial ⚠️ Partial (particles) ✅ Yes
Coagulation (alum) + filtration ⚠️ Partial ⚠️ Partial ⚠️ Partial ⚠️ Partial ⛔ No ⛔ No ⚠️ Partial ✅ Yes

⚠️ The key points from the matrix

  1. No single method does everything. You need a combination.
  2. A filter does not kill viruses. Filter + chlorine is a good pairing.
  3. Chlorine does not kill cryptosporidium. Boiling or chlorine dioxide does.
  4. Nothing except RO/distillation/ion exchange removes dissolved radionuclides and salts.
  5. Nothing makes water containing petrol or solvents safe — such water simply must not be taken.
1. CHOICE OF SOURCE (the most important step — see 11.1)
2. SETTLING for 12–24 hours in a closed container
3. DECANTING (pour off the upper part carefully, without stirring up the sediment)
4. PRE-FILTRATION through cloth/sand/charcoal (remove the turbidity)
5. DISINFECTION: boiling OR chlorine OR tablets
6. STORAGE in a closed clean container

11.4. Boiling — exact parameters

Per the CDC: * Bring clear water to a rolling boil and hold it for 1 minute. * At altitudes above 2000 m (6500 ft)3 minutes (the boiling point is lower). * Cloudy water must be filtered/settled first. * Let it cool naturally and store it in a closed container. * The taste is improved by pouring it from container to container (aeration) or by a pinch of salt.

Confidence: high

⚠️ Some sources (including a number of national guides) recommend 3–10 minutes everywhere. That is excessive: pathogens are killed at 70 °C within a few minutes; by the time the water boils it is effectively pasteurised. The discrepancy is explained by a safety margin, not by different science. Fuel is precious — follow the CDC.

11.5. Chlorination — exact dosages

What you can use

Household bleach with no fragrance, no thickeners and no "care" additives, active ingredient sodium hypochlorite (NaClO). ⛔ Scented bleaches, "colour-safe", gel and oxygen bleaches — do not use.

CDC dosage (for 5–9 % NaClO bleach)

Volume of water Clear water Cloudy water (after filtering)
1 litre 2 drops (≈0.1 ml) 4 drops
4 litres (~1 gallon) 8 drops (≈0.5 ml; "a little less than 1/8 teaspoon") 16 drops
10 litres ~20 drops (≈1 ml) 40 drops
20 litres ~40 drops (≈2 ml) 80 drops
100 litres ~10 ml (2 teaspoons) 20 ml

Contact time: at least 30 minutes. The water should smell faintly of chlorine. If there is no smell, repeat the dose and wait another 15 minutes.

⚠️ For 8.25 % bleach the CDC gives 6 drops per gallon (roughly 1.5 drops per litre).

Confidence: high — direct CDC data.

Alternatives

Agent Dosage Note
NaDCC / sodium dichloroisocyanurate tablets Per the instructions (usually 1 tablet per 1 or 5 l) ✅ Convenient, stable in storage, 3–5 year shelf life
Chlorine dioxide (two-part or tablets) Per the instructions, contact 30 min – 4 h ✅ Works against cryptosporidium
Iodine-based tablets Per the instructions ⚠️ Not for pregnant women, people with thyroid disease, or long-term use (>a few weeks)
Calcium hypochlorite (bleaching powder) First make up a stock solution: ~7 g (1 tsp) in 8 l of water; then 1 part stock to 100 parts water ⚠️ Requires accuracy. Keeps well
Potassium permanganate (KMnO4) ⚠️ A weak and unreliable disinfectant; it colours the water Not recommended as the main method

⛔ The hazards of chlorination

  • Never mix bleach with acid, vinegar, ammonia or toilet cleaners — chlorine or chloramine is released, and both are lethal in an enclosed space.
  • ⚠️ Bleach loses activity: noticeable degradation within 6–12 months at room temperature. Replace it annually.
  • ⚠️ Over-chlorination tastes unpleasant but is less dangerous than under-dosing. If clearly overdosed, leave it standing open, aerate it, or pass it through activated charcoal.

11.6. Solar disinfection (SODIS) — the no-resources method

For the "I have nothing" case.

  1. A clear plastic (PET) bottle of up to 2 l, clean, label removed.
  2. The water must be clear (filter cloudy water first). If you can read newsprint through a full bottle, it will do.
  3. Fill it three-quarters, shake for 20 seconds (oxygenation), top it up, close it.
  4. Lay it horizontally in the sun, preferably on a reflective or dark surface (metal, slate).
  5. 6 hours under a clear sky; 2 days under full cloud.

Confidence: medium — the method is recommended by WHO for developing countries; it is effective against bacteria and viruses, less reliable against protozoan cysts, and completely ineffective against chemicals and radionuclides.

11.7. Distillation — how to do it

What it gives you: practically pure water from any liquid base (salty, contaminated with salts, radionuclides, most chemicals). What it does not give you: protection from volatile substances (alcohols, petrol, some iodine compounds) — they distil over with the water.

The simplest version on a stove

  1. A large pan of water, with the lid domed side down (or an inverted lid).
  2. Inside the pan, a stand with an empty cup on it (not touching the water).
  3. Ice or a wet cloth on top of the lid.
  4. Boil on a low heat. The condensate runs down the lid into the cup.
  5. Output is small (a cupful in 20–40 minutes) and fuel consumption is enormous.

A solar still (no fuel)

  1. A pit 1×1 m, 50 cm deep; a collection vessel at the bottom.
  2. Spread contaminated water / damp greenery / salt water over the bottom around the vessel.
  3. Cover the pit with clear plastic sheeting, weighting the edges with earth.
  4. Put a pebble in the centre of the sheet, exactly over the vessel — the sheet sags into a downward cone.
  5. Condensate runs down the sheet to the point of the cone and drips into the vessel.

Yield: 0.3–1 l/day per m² in a hot sunny climate. Confidence: medium — it depends heavily on the climate. This is an emergency source, not a primary one.

11.8. Storing water

Rule Why
Food-grade plastic (HDPE, PET), or glass, or stainless steel Other plastics leach substances
⛔ Never use containers that held fuel, chemicals or household chemicals Residues cannot be washed out
Closed lids Dust, insects, evaporation
A dark, cool place Growth of algae and bacteria
Label the date Rotation
Store it in several containers A single point of failure
Check periodically for smell and cloudiness Early diagnosis
Water stored for more than 6 months — disinfect before use Safety
Disinfect before storage (a small chlorine dose) It suppresses growth

11.9. Signs of dehydration and what to do

Degree Signs Action
Mild (2–3 % of body mass) Thirst, dark urine, dry mouth, reduced capacity for work Drink water
Moderate (4–6 %) Little urine (dark, concentrated), headache, dizziness, weakness, dry skin, sunken eyes ORS (oral rehydration salts), drink small amounts often
Severe (>7 %) No urine for 8+ hours, confusion, rapid heartbeat, low blood pressure, cold clammy skin, loss of consciousness An emergency. ORS in small sips; if they cannot drink, intravenous fluids are needed (usually unavailable)

ORS recipe (WHO recommendation, simplified home version)

Per 1 LITRE of clean (boiled, cooled) water:
  • 6 level teaspoons of sugar (≈ 25–30 g)
  • 0.5 teaspoon of salt (≈ 2.5–3 g)
Stir until dissolved.

Check: the solution should be NO saltier than tears.
Too much salt is DANGEROUS, especially for children.

Confidence: high — this is the standard WHO/UNICEF home solution formula. Commercial ORS sachets are preferable, as they also contain potassium and citrate.

Dosage in diarrhoea: * Adult: 200–400 ml after every loose stool. * Child under 2: 50–100 ml after every stool, a teaspoonful every 1–2 minutes. * Child 2–10: 100–200 ml after every stool.

⚠️ Do not give in dehydration: large quantities of plain water without salt (risk of hyponatraemia), sugary fizzy drinks, juices (osmotic diarrhoea), alcohol, coffee.

11.10. Urine colour chart (field diagnosis)

Colour Condition
Clear / pale straw ✅ Normal
Yellow Drink more
Dark yellow / amber ⚠️ Dehydration
Brown / tea-coloured ⛔ Severe dehydration; possible rhabdomyolysis or liver damage. Drink urgently, seek help
Red/pink ⛔ Blood. Injury, infection, stones. An alarming sign
No urine for 8+ hours ⛔ Severe dehydration or renal failure

⚠️ B-group vitamins turn urine bright yellow — that is not dehydration.


STAGE 12. FOOD

12.1. Hierarchy of food safety after fallout

From the safest to the most dangerous.

Rank Category Safety What to do
1 Sealed metal tins ✅ The contents are fully protected Wipe the tin with a damp cloth, dry it, open it with a clean knife. Ready.gov: "It is safe to eat food in sealed containers that were outside, if you wipe the container with a damp towel"
2 Glass jars with an airtight lid ✅ The same Wipe them, especially the thread and under the rim
3 Sealed pouches, vacuum packs, Tetra Pak ✅ The same Wipe them, open carefully
4 Dry goods in closed containers (grain, pasta, sugar, salt) ✅ If the container was closed Wipe the container
5 Food from a closed fridge/freezer ✅ As regards radiation; ⚠️ as regards spoilage A fridge holds the cold for ~4 hours, a full freezer for 48 hours, a half-full one for 24 (USDA). Eat the perishables first
6 Food in loose packaging (paper, cardboard, open packets) ⚠️ Surface contamination possible Remove/discard the outer layer, take the inner part with clean hands
7 Grain in sacks, in a barn, in an enclosed space ✅ The interior is protected Remove the top 5–10 cm, use the rest
8 Root crops and tubers from underground (potatoes, beetroot, carrots) ⚠️ The soil protects them, but nuclides can enter through the roots Wash thoroughly, peel them (this removes most of it). Check with an instrument
9 Vegetables with a thick skin (pumpkin, marrow, melon, citrus) ⚠️ Medium Wash, peel
10 Vegetables with a smooth surface (tomatoes, peppers, apples) ⚠️ Medium Wash, peel
11 Leafy vegetables and greens (lettuce, cabbage, spinach) The worst case. Large surface area, direct deposition Do not eat produce from the fallout zone in the first weeks. In extremity — wash repeatedly, remove the outer leaves
12 Mushrooms Extremely high caesium accumulation, persisting for years and decades ⛔ Avoid in contaminated areas for many years. See below
13 Milk A fast and powerful transfer route for I-131 and Sr-90 ⛔ Do not drink fresh milk from animals grazing in the fallout zone for the first 2–3 months. See below
14 Eggs ⚠️ Medium (the shell protects, but feed carries nuclides) Wash the shell, break them carefully. Better than milk
15 Meat from domestic animals ⚠️ Depends on the feed Feed them clean fodder for 1–3 months before slaughter — the caesium level in the muscle falls noticeably
16 Game ⛔ High (it feeds on contaminated vegetation and mushrooms) Wild boar, deer, elk and hare are especially dangerous — they eat mushrooms and roots
17 Fish ⚠️ Depends on the water body. Predatory fish and fish from standing water accumulate more Rivers are better than lakes. Small fish better than large
18 Seafood, seaweed ⚠️ They concentrate iodine and other nuclides Use with caution
19 Honey, wild berries ⚠️ Moderately high accumulation Check them
20 Anything left in the open during fallout ⛔ Contaminated Wash it or throw it away

12.2. Radioactivity in the food chain

Three routes of entry

1. DIRECT DEPOSITION onto the surface of plants and food
   → The main route in the first days and weeks
   → Dealt with by washing, peeling, removing the outer layer
   → Especially dangerous for leafy vegetables and grass

2. ROOT UPTAKE from the soil
   → The main route over months and years
   → Cs-137 behaves like potassium, Sr-90 like calcium
   → Reduced by applying potassium and calcium fertilisers (competition)

3. VIA ANIMALS (grass → cow → milk/meat)
   → The fastest and most dangerous route for I-131
   → A cow eats grass from a large area and concentrates the nuclides in its milk

Pasture → milk: why this is critical

A cow eats the grass from roughly 50–100 m² a day. Iodine-131 passes quickly into milk (peaking 1–2 days after intake). This made milk the main route of thyroid exposure for children after Chernobyl.

What to do:

Measure Effect
Switch animals to stored (pre-accident) feed ✅ Radically reduces milk contamination
Keep animals indoors for the first weeks ✅ Very effective
Do not drink fresh milk from the fallout zone for 2–3 months ✅ I-131 decays (8-day half-life: after 80 days 1/1000 remains)
Process the milk into cheese or butter ⚠️ The caesium goes into the whey; butter and hard cheese contain noticeably less caesium than whole milk
Powdered milk and tinned milk produced before the war ✅ Safe

Confidence: high — these are the standard IAEA/FAO countermeasures applied after Chernobyl.

Mushrooms — a special hazard

Mushrooms (especially bay bolete, slippery jack, other boletes and brown roll-rim) accumulate caesium hundreds and thousands of times more intensively than the surrounding soil and remain contaminated for decades after fallout. Forty years after Chernobyl, mushrooms in a number of parts of Europe still exceed the limits.

In contaminated areas mushrooms are excluded from the diet for a very long time.

Confidence: high — repeatedly confirmed by measurements across Europe.

Indicative limits (Codex Alimentarius, FAO/WHO)

Nuclide "Other foods" Infant food
Cs-134 + Cs-137 (sum) 1000 Bq/kg 1000 Bq/kg
I-131 100 Bq/kg 100 Bq/kg
Sr-90 100 Bq/kg 100 Bq/kg
Pu-239, Am-241 10 Bq/kg 1 Bq/kg

⚠️ National standards differ (Japan set 100 Bq/kg for Cs in general foods after 2012 — ten times stricter than Codex). The difference lies in assumptions about the share of contaminated food in the diet, not in the biology.

⚠️ In survival conditions these limits are often impossible to measure. Then the working rule is: choose foods low in the risk hierarchy and vary your sources. Eating constantly from one contaminated place is worse than eating a little from several.

12.3. Culinary decontamination

Technique Reduction in contamination
Washing under running water 20–50 % of surface contamination
Washing + brush + detergent up to 70–80 % of surface contamination
Peeling (potatoes, carrots, apples) Very effective — up to 80–90 % for root crops
Removing the outer leaves (cabbage, lettuce) Considerable
Soaking in salted water for 2–12 h with changes of water For Cs — noticeable (caesium is soluble)
Boiling and discarding the cooking water ⚠️ Cs-137 passes into the water — pour it away and do not use it. Reduction up to 50 %
Boiling meat in pieces with changes of water 30–60 % of the caesium
Salting meat/fish and draining off the brine Considerable
Processing milk into butter/hard cheese Considerable for Cs
Removing the bones Important for Sr-90 (it accumulates in bone)
Removing the animal's thyroid, liver and kidneys These organs concentrate nuclides

⛔ Cooking water, brine and soaking water must be poured away outside the living area; do not use them for soup and do not give them to animals.

12.4. Checking food without instruments

Characteristics by which radioactivity cannot be judged: appearance, smell, taste, colour, "tingling on the tongue". ⛔ Radiation cannot be sensed.

What you can assess without instruments:

Question If the answer is "yes"
Was the food in sealed packaging? ✅ Safe as regards radiation
Was the food under a roof/indoors? ⚠️ Probably acceptable
Was the food lying out in the open? ⛔ Contaminated
Is it leafy greens from open ground? ⛔ The worst case
Is it a mushroom? ⛔ Exclude it
Is it milk from a pastured animal? ⛔ Exclude it for months
Is it a root vegetable that can be peeled? ⚠️ Acceptable after peeling

12.5. Spoilage — a threat of equal importance

Food poisoning with no medicine available can kill. Signs that something has gone off:

⛔ Throw out immediately
A bulging tin — ⛔ possible botulism, lethal
A tin with leakage, rust right through, or deep dents on the seams
Hissing/contents shooting out on opening (except carbonated products)
Mould on the surface of liquid/soft foods
A putrid, sour or ammoniacal smell from meat/fish
Slime on the surface of meat
A rancid smell from oil or nuts (edible, but unpleasant and harmful in quantity)
Food that has been thawed and refrozen (shown by frost inside the packet)
Food left at room temperature for >2 hours (meat, dairy, eggs, cooked food)

⚠️ Botulism gives no smell, no taste and no change in appearance. The only defence is not to eat from bulging or suspect tins, and to preserve food correctly (see STAGE 26).

The USDA rule for a fridge with no power

  • Fridge: food is safe for about 4 hours if the door is not opened.
  • Full freezer: about 48 hours.
  • Half-full freezer: about 24 hours.
  • Food that has been above +4 °C for more than 2 hours (or more than 1 hour at temperatures above +32 °C) must be discarded if it is meat, fish, dairy, eggs or cooked food.
  • "When in doubt, throw it out" — USDA.

Confidence: high

12.6. Wild food — rules for survival

⚠️ Poisoning by plants and fungi kills faster than hunger.

Absolute rules

  1. Do not eat mushrooms unless you know the specific species with complete certainty. And even then — not in a fallout zone (caesium).
  2. Do not eat unfamiliar berries. Bright red, white or black berries on an unfamiliar plant are high risk.
  3. Do not "taste-test" plants to check them. The universal edibility test takes a day and does not protect against lethal poisons (aconite, hemlock, water hemlock).
  4. Do not eat plants growing beside roads, landfills, industrial zones or farm fields — accumulation of heavy metals and pesticides.
  5. Get an illustrated identification guide for your region in advance.

Lethally poisonous plants confused with edible ones (temperate latitudes)

Poisonous Confused with Sign/consequence
Water hemlock (cowbane) Celery, angelica, parsnip ⛔ One of the most poisonous plants there is; death within hours
Hemlock (Conium maculatum) Parsley, wild carrot ⛔ Respiratory paralysis. Reddish blotches on the stem, a mousy smell
Lily of the valley Ramsons (wild garlic) ⛔ Cardiac arrest. Ramsons smells of garlic, lily of the valley does not
Meadow saffron (Colchicum) Ramsons ⛔ Lethal
Aconite (monkshood) ⛔ Lethal even on contact with the sap
Mezereon (Daphne) Edible berries ⛔ Burns, death
Herb Paris Bilberry, blueberry ⛔ A single berry on the stem, 4 leaves in a cross
Unripe black nightshade Edible berries ⚠️ Unripe fruit is toxic
Castor oil plant ⛔ The seeds contain ricin
Yew ⛔ All parts except the flesh of the aril are lethal

Lethal mushrooms

Mushroom Confused with Note
Death cap Field mushroom, russula, man on horseback ⛔ One mushroom kills an adult. Symptoms appear at 6–24 hours, when the liver is already destroyed
Destroying angel, fool's mushroom Field mushroom ⛔ Lethal
Funeral bell (Galerina marginata) Honey fungus ⛔ Lethal
False morel (Gyromitra) Morel ⚠️ Gyromitrin, toxic
Brown roll-rim (Paxillus involutus) "Edible" in old books ⛔ Now considered poisonous; it causes haemolysis

Confidence: high. ⛔ Rule: in a disaster, with no doctors and no haemodialysis, mushroom poisoning = death. Mushrooms are not worth the risk.

Relatively safe wild plants (temperate zone)

Provided you recognise them with confidence and they are not from a contaminated area:

Plant Part Note
Dandelion Leaves, roots, flowers Bitter, soak them
Nettle Young shoots (boiled) Rich in iron and protein
Fat hen, goosefoot Leaves (boiled) High nutritional value
Plantain Leaves Also wound-healing
Reedmace (bulrush) Rhizome, young shoots Starch
Burdock First-year root Starch
Ground elder Young leaves Edible
Rosebay willowherb Leaves, roots Tea, greens
Acorns Nuts ⚠️ Need soaking to remove tannins (change the water 5–10 times)
Pine/spruce Needles (infusion) ⚠️ Vitamin C, antiscorbutic
Birch Sap, inner bark In spring

⚠️ All wild plants in a fallout zone should be treated as contaminated, especially perennials and those growing in woodland.

12.7. Diet under scarcity

Priority Nutrient Source Consequence of deficiency
1 Water See STAGE 11 Death in 3 days
2 Energy (calories) Fats, starch, sugar Wasting, loss of capacity for work, immunodeficiency
3 Protein Pulses, tinned food, eggs, milk, meat, fish, nuts Oedema, muscle loss, non-healing wounds, infections
4 Salt (sodium) Salt Weakness, cramps, hyponatraemia
5 Vitamin C Fresh vegetables, pine-needle infusion, rosehips, sauerkraut, sprouts Scurvy within 1–3 months: bleeding gums, loss of teeth, old wounds reopening
6 Vitamin A Carrots, pumpkin, liver, eggs, fish oil Night blindness, susceptibility to infection
7 B-group vitamins Whole grain, pulses, meat Beriberi, pellagra, neurological disorders
8 Vitamin D Sunlight, fish, eggs Rickets in children, osteomalacia
9 Iron Meat, pulses, greens Anaemia
10 Iodine Iodised salt, seafood Goitre; in children, impaired development

Cheap sources of vitamins without industry

  • Sprouts (wheat, peas, lentils, mung beans) — in 2–4 days dry grain becomes a source of vitamin C and B vitamins. ✅ The best way to avoid scurvy in winter.
  • Sauerkraut — vitamin C survives for months.
  • Pine-needle infusion — pour 1 l of boiling water over 100 g of needles, infuse for 2 hours, drink a glass at a time. An antiscorbutic known since the 18th century.
  • Rosehips — very high vitamin C content, dries and stores well.
  • Animal liver — vitamin A, B12, iron. ⚠️ The liver of polar bears and some predators is ⛔ toxic because of excess vitamin A.

STAGE 13. MEDICINE

⚠️ This section is not a substitute for training. A first-aid course (8–16 hours) gives you more than a hundred pages of text. Take one before the catastrophe. ⛔ This document deliberately does not teach complex surgery, anaesthesia or invasive procedures. Attempting them without training kills the patient.

13.1. Order of priorities: MARCH

The modern trauma protocol (adopted in tactical medicine and increasingly in civilian practice):

M — Massive haemorrhage → Massive bleeding
A — Airway              → The airway
R — Respiration         → Breathing
C — Circulation         → Circulation, shock
H — Hypothermia/Head    → Hypothermia, head

Why bleeding comes before the airway: in blast and fragmentation injury, arterial bleeding kills in 3–5 minutes, faster than airway obstruction does in most casualties.

Confidence: high — MARCH is adopted in TCCC/TECC and in mass-casualty response guidance.

13.2. M — Massive bleeding

Recognition

  • Blood is spurting or pulsing.
  • Clothing soaks through as you watch.
  • A pool of blood is growing.
  • Amputation or partial amputation of a limb.
  • The casualty turns pale, goes cold, becomes confused.

Algorithm

1. DIRECT PRESSURE
   → The palm (gloved) or folded cloth DIRECTLY on the wound
   → Press HARD, with your whole weight, do not let go for 3–10 minutes
   → Do not peek "to check": the clot is torn away
   → This stops most bleeding

2. IF IT DOES NOT STOP and it is a LIMB → TOURNIQUET
   → Applied ABOVE the wound, 5–7 cm closer to the trunk
   → Over clothing is acceptable
   → NOT over a joint
   → Tighten until bleeding stops COMPLETELY (this will be very painful)
   → WRITE DOWN THE TIME of application: on the tourniquet, on the casualty's forehead, on a slip of paper
   → ⛔ DO NOT loosen or periodically release it — that increases blood loss
        and causes a release of toxins into the bloodstream
   → Improvised tourniquet: a wide (≥5 cm) strip of cloth + a windlass stick.
     ⚠️ Narrow tourniquets (wire, cord, a strap) damage the tissues

3. IF IT IS NOT A LIMB (neck, groin, armpit, trunk) → WOUND PACKING
   → Pack the wound with bandage/clean cloth DEEP inside, down to the base
   → Keep packing until the wound is full
   → Then strong direct pressure on top for 3–10 minutes
   → Then a firm dressing over it
   ⚠️ Do not pack chest and abdominal wounds suspected of penetrating
      a body cavity — pressure on top only

4. HAEMOSTATIC AGENTS (if available)
   → A haemostatic dressing/powder is packed into the wound, then pressure
   → ⛔ Do not put powder into eyes or into the chest cavity

5. AFTER THE BLEEDING STOPS
   → Do not remove the dressing
   → Raise the limb above heart level (if there is no fracture)
   → Keep the casualty warm
   → Do not give fluids if surgery is possible; if no help is coming and they are
     conscious — small sips

Tourniquet time

Time What happens
< 2 hours Usually without consequences
2–6 hours A growing risk of nerve and muscle damage
> 6 hours Loss of the limb is highly likely

⚠️ But: a tourniquet is applied to save a life. The limb is secondary. Do not remove a tourniquet out of fear for the limb.

⚠️ Removing a tourniquet after several hours can cause crush syndrome (release of potassium and myoglobin) with cardiac arrest and renal failure. Without medical support it is dangerous to remove a tourniquet that has been on for more than 2 hours. If no help is coming, this is a hard decision, and there is no right answer in the field.

13.3. A — The airway

Situation Action
Unconscious, breathing Recovery position (on the side, head back, upper leg bent). Check breathing every minute
Unconscious, noisy/snoring breathing Tilt the head back, lift the chin (if there is no neck injury — otherwise a jaw thrust only). Clear the mouth with a finger/cloth
Foreign body, casualty conscious, cannot speak/cough 5 blows between the shoulder blades with the heel of the hand, then 5 abdominal thrusts (Heimlich manoeuvre). Alternate
Foreign body, casualty unconscious Lay them on their back, start CPR (the compressions help expel the object)
Airway burn (singed nasal hair, soot in the mouth, hoarse voice, soot in the sputum) Extremely dangerous: swelling builds over hours and closes off the airway. Keep them half-sitting, provide fresh air, do not give large amounts to drink. Without intubation there is nothing to be done

13.4. R — Breathing

Condition Signs Action
Not breathing No chest movement, no breath at the mouth for 10 seconds CPR: 30 compressions (5–6 cm deep, rate 100–120/min, centre of the sternum) : 2 breaths. ⚠️ If breaths are impossible — compressions only
Open ("sucking") chest wound Air can be heard being drawn in, blood bubbling Cover with an airtight material (plastic, packaging) and tape it down on three sides — this makes a valve that lets air out. Keep watching
Tension pneumothorax Increasing breathlessness, blueness, tracheal deviation, absent breath sounds on one side, distended neck veins ⛔ Requires needle decompression — a procedure for the trained. If there is nobody — open the valve on the chest wound, sit them half up
Multiple rib fractures Paradoxical movement of a section of the chest wall Half-sitting position, pain relief, do not strap tightly (it worsens pneumonia)

13.5. C — Circulation and shock

Signs of shock

  • Pale, cold, clammy skin.
  • Rapid weak pulse.
  • Rapid shallow breathing.
  • Anxiety, then confusion, then apathy.
  • Thirst.
  • Slow capillary refill (press a nail — it takes longer than 2 seconds to go pink).

Action

1. Lie them down, raise the legs 20–30 cm (if there is no pelvic/leg/head injury)
2. Stop the bleeding (the main cause)
3. KEEP THEM WARM: a blanket UNDERNEATH as well as on top. The ground/floor takes heat faster than air does
4. Do not give food
5. Fluids: small sips, if conscious and with no abdominal injury
6. Reassure them, talk to them, do not leave them alone
7. Check breathing and consciousness every 5 minutes

Do not give alcohol. ⛔ Do not warm with hot water bottles or heat (vasodilatation worsens shock).

13.6. H — Hypothermia

Hypothermia kills the injured even in warm weather. Blood loss + immobility + wet clothing = a lethal combination.

Stage Body temperature Signs Action
Mild 32–35 °C Violent shivering, confusion, clumsiness Remove wet clothing, wrap them up, warm sweet drinks, movement
Moderate 28–32 °C Shivering stops, confusion, slurred speech, drowsiness ⚠️ Move them very carefully (risk of arrhythmia), wrap up, warm compresses on the neck/armpits/groin, do not rub the limbs
Severe < 28 °C Unconscious, breathing and pulse barely detectable, pupils dilated ⚠️ May look dead. "Nobody is dead until they are warm and dead." CPR, rewarming, handle with the greatest possible care

⛔ In hypothermia you must not: give alcohol, rub with snow, use a hot bath, make abrupt movements, or transport roughly.

13.7. Burns

Classification

Degree Appearance Pain Healing
I (superficial) Redness, no blisters Severe 3–7 days, no scar
II (partial thickness) Blisters, moist pink surface Very severe 2–3 weeks
III (full thickness) White, brown, black, leathery, dry ⚠️ Painless (the nerves are destroyed) Does not heal on its own, grafting is needed

Assessing the area: the "rule of nines" (adult)

Body part % of surface
Head and neck 9 %
Each arm 9 %
Front of the trunk 18 %
Back of the trunk 18 %
Each leg 18 %
Perineum 1 %

The casualty's palm (with fingers) ≈ 1 % of their body surface — a handy field measure.

⚠️ Children's proportions are different: the head accounts for a substantially larger percentage.

First aid for a burn

1. STOP THE EXPOSURE: put out the flames, move them from the source, remove smouldering clothing
   ⛔ DO NOT pull off fabric that has stuck — cut around it
2. COOL IT: cool (NOT iced) water, 10–20 minutes
   ⚠️ For burns over 10–15 % of the surface, cool sparingly — risk of hypothermia
3. REMOVE rings, watches and bracelets BEFORE swelling starts
4. COVER: a clean dry non-adherent dressing, sterile cloth, or cling film
   (cling film is an excellent field option: it does not stick and it is transparent)
5. GIVE PAIN RELIEF
6. FLUIDS: with burns over 10 % the body loses an enormous amount of fluid.
   ORS, plenty, continuously
7. KEEP the rest of the body WARM

⛔ What you must NOT do with burns

⛔ Do not Why
Oil, sour cream, ointment, toothpaste, flour, urine They trap heat, introduce infection, and get in the way of treatment
Ice, iced water It worsens the damage and causes frostbite
Bursting blisters The blister is a sterile barrier
Cotton wool or sticking plaster on a burn It sticks
Tight bandaging Swelling builds up

When a burn is lethal (without a hospital, nearly hopeless)

  • More than 20 % of body surface in an adult, more than 10 % in a child.
  • An airway burn.
  • A circumferential burn of a limb or the chest (it constricts and requires incision — only for the trained).
  • Burns to the face, hands, feet, perineum or joints — a high risk of disability.
  • Chemical and electrical burns.

"Beta burns" from fallout

Fallout particles on the skin deliver local beta irradiation. They appear after a delay of days to weeks: itching, redness, darkening, peeling, ulceration, hair loss in the affected patch.

Prevention is timely decontamination and nothing else. There is no treatment in the field: cleanliness, protection from infection, pain relief.

13.8. Wounds and infection

Wound care

1. Clean hands (gloves, soap, antiseptic)
2. Stop the bleeding
3. IRRIGATE COPIOUSLY with clean water under pressure
   → This is the MAIN step. Volume matters more than the "sterility" of the agent
   → 0.5–1 litre of boiled, cooled water per wound is normal
   → A syringe without a needle, or a bottle with a pierced cap, gives the right pressure
4. Remove visible foreign bodies (tweezers); do NOT dig around deep inside
5. Treat the wound edges with antiseptic (chlorhexidine, povidone-iodine, alcohol)
   ⚠️ Do NOT pour alcohol or iodine INTO the wound — it damages tissue and slows healing
   ⚠️ Hydrogen peroxide: it cleans but damages cells; use it only for the initial
      cleaning of a dirty wound, not for repeat dressings
6. Cover with a dressing. Change it when it soaks through, or once a day
7. DO NOT SUTURE contaminated wounds, bites, or wounds older than 6–12 hours
   → A sutured dirty wound = abscess and sepsis
   → Leave it open, pack it loosely, let it heal by secondary intention

Signs of wound infection

Sign Urgency
Redness around the wound, spreading ⚠️ Early
Swelling, pain increasing from day 2–3 ⚠️ Early
Pus, unpleasant smell ⚠️ Established infection
Red streaks running from the wound towards the body (lymphangitis) ⛔ Dangerous
Fever, chills ⛔ Systemic infection
Confusion, fast pulse, low blood pressure, rapid breathing SEPSIS — life-threatening
Crepitus (crackling) under the skin, blackened tissue, a foul smell Gas gangrene — extremely dangerous

Sepsis — what to do without a hospital

Honestly: the chances are slim. What you can do:

  1. Broad-spectrum antibiotics, if you have them (see STAGE 14).
  2. Incision and drainage of an abscess (⚠️ a basic procedure, but it requires at least a minimal grasp of the anatomy).
  3. Copious fluids, ORS.
  4. Antipyretics.
  5. Rest, warmth.

Tetanus

⚠️ Soil-contaminated wounds, puncture wounds and burns carry a tetanus risk. Mortality without intensive care is very high.

The only real protection is vaccination BEFORE the catastrophe. Boosters every 10 years. Check your vaccination status now.

Confidence: high

13.9. Fractures

Type Signs Action
Closed Pain, swelling, deformity, inability to bear weight, crepitus Immobilise "as it lies", cold, pain relief. A splint spanning the two adjacent joints
Open Bone visible, or a wound over the fracture Do not reduce it. Stop the bleeding, cover sterilely, immobilise, give an antibiotic if available
Spine Back pain, numbness, weakness/paralysis of the limbs Do not move them unless absolutely necessary. Move them only with several people, keeping the axis aligned
Pelvis Pain, inability to stand, signs of shock ⛔ Very dangerous (internal bleeding). Bind the pelvis with a sheet/belt at the level of the greater trochanters, do not move them
Skull Loss of consciousness, vomiting, unequal pupils, blood/fluid from the ear or nose ⚠️ Rest, half-sitting, observation. Give nothing to eat or drink

Splinting — the rules

  • Immobilise the joint above and below the fracture.
  • A splint is any rigid object: a board, a stick, a rolled-up magazine, a ski pole, the other leg/arm as a splint.
  • Soft padding between the splint and the body.
  • Bind it not too tightly: check the fingers (colour, warmth, sensation) every 15 minutes.
  • Keep the limb in a natural position. ⛔ Do not try to "straighten" a fracture.

13.10. Crush syndrome

The situation: a person is pinned under rubble for more than an hour.

The mechanism: potassium, myoglobin and acids accumulate in the crushed muscle. When they are released, these enter the bloodstream all at once and cause cardiac arrest and renal failure.

⚠️ The casualty can look fine under the rubble and die minutes after being freed.

What to do

✅ Before release ⛔ What not to do
Start giving fluids before extraction: water, ORS, copiously. This is the one thing you can actually do Free them quickly without preparation
Keep them warm Rub or massage the crushed limb
If you have a tourniquet, consider applying it before release where the crush has lasted > 2 hours (⚠️ a contested measure, debated in the literature) Ignore the problem
Release them gradually if possible
After release — observe, keep giving fluids, immobilise

Confidence: medium — tourniquet tactics in crush syndrome remain a subject of debate; only early and copious fluid replacement is beyond dispute.

⚠️ Without intravenous fluids and dialysis the prognosis is poor. Prepare realistically for the fact that severe crush injury in a world without hospitals is fatal.

13.11. Eyes

Injury Action
Dust, sand, fallout Rinse copiously with clean water, from the inner corner outwards. ⛔ Do not rub
A chemical Rinse continuously for 15–20 minutes (alkali — 30–60 minutes). Hold the eyelids apart. This is an immediate action
An embedded foreign body Do not remove it. Cover both eyes (moving the good eye moves the injured one), get them to help
Penetrating eye injury ⛔ Do not press, do not irrigate. Cover with a rigid shield (a cup), not a dressing. Cover both eyes
Flash blindness Usually temporary (minutes to hours). Rest, darkness, do not rub. Permanent blindness is possible if you looked at the flash close up
UV burn ("snow blindness") Pain and a gritty sensation after 6–12 hours. Dark room, cold compresses, pain relief. Resolves in 1–2 days

13.12. Amputations

This document does not teach how to perform amputations. Amputation without anaesthesia, sterility and the means to stop bleeding almost always kills.

What you can do

Situation Action
Traumatic amputation (already occurred) Tourniquet above the stump, record the time. Cover the stump sterilely. Keep warm, give fluids (if there is no alternative). Anti-shock measures
Preserving the severed part Wrap it in clean damp cloth, put it in a bag, put the bag in cold water or on ice. ⛔ Do not put it directly on ice and do not freeze it. (Relevant only if there is a real prospect of a surgeon)
A limb is trapped, cannot be saved, the person is dying ⚠️ This is a situation for a medic. In their absence — relieve suffering as far as possible, keep trying to free them

13.13. Acute radiation syndrome (ARS)

When to suspect it

The person has been outside in a fallout zone or near ground zero and has developed nausea and vomiting.

The key field indicator: time to vomiting

Time to onset of vomiting Approximate dose Prognosis
No vomiting in the first 6 hours probably < 1 Gy Good
After 4–6 hours ~1–2 Gy Broadly favourable with nursing care
After 2–4 hours ~2–4 Gy Serious
After 1–2 hours ~4–6 Gy Severe
Less than 1 hour > 6 Gy ⛔ Very poor
Less than 30 minutes + diarrhoea + headache + confusion > 8–10 Gy ⛔ Practically hopeless

Confidence: medium — time to vomiting is used as a recognised field biodosimetry indicator (IAEA, REMM), but individual variation is wide, and stress by itself causes vomiting. Do not diagnose one person on one sign.

The four stages of ARS (per CDC)

1. PRODROMAL (minutes – 2 days)
   Nausea, vomiting, loss of appetite, sometimes diarrhoea, headache, fever
   Lasts from a few hours to a few days

2. LATENT (hours – weeks)
   ⚠️ The person looks and feels HEALTHY
   The higher the dose, the shorter this stage
   This is the most deceptive phase

3. MANIFEST ILLNESS (hours – months)
   Bone-marrow form: white cells and platelets fall →
     infections, bleeding from the gums/nose/gut, bruising, hair loss,
     weakness. The peak of danger is weeks 2–6
   Gastrointestinal form: intractable diarrhoea (often bloody),
     dehydration, electrolyte disturbance, sepsis
   Cardiovascular/CNS: confusion, convulsions, coma, collapse

4. RECOVERY OR DEATH
   Recovery takes weeks to 2 years

Thresholds (CDC)

Form Threshold for full development First symptoms possible from
Bone-marrow (haematopoietic) > 0.7 Gy 0.3 Gy
Gastrointestinal > 10 Gy 6 Gy
Cardiovascular / CNS > 50 Gy 20 Gy

LD50/60 (CDC): approximately 2.5–5 Gy without medical care. FEMA: LD50 without treatment ≈ 4 Gy (footnote: some sources give 3.5 Gy). With medical care survival is possible up to ~6 Gy.

⚠️ The 2.5–5 Gy spread is explained by different assumptions about nursing care, state of health and the presence of concomitant injuries. The range is real; there is no single figure.

What can be done without a hospital

Measure Importance
Isolation from infection ⭐ The main thing. The immune system is destroyed. A separate clean room, masks for visitors, meticulous hand hygiene, clean food and water
Hydration ⭐ Critical. ORS, plenty, continuously
Antiemetics (ondansetron, metoclopramide, or anything available) Allows them to drink and eat
Pain relief Quality of life
Antibiotics (at the first signs of infection, in neutropenia) ⭐ Can save a life. A fluoroquinolone (ciprofloxacin) is the typical choice in neutropenic fever
Oral hygiene (mouthwashes) A frequent portal of infection
Nutrition Calories, protein
Skin care Beta burns, pressure sores
⛔ Do not give Aspirin and NSAIDs when platelets are low (they worsen bleeding)
⛔ Unavailable Bone-marrow transplant, growth factors (G-CSF), platelet transfusion, sterile isolation units

⚠️ An important point about contagiousness

A person with ARS is NOT contagious and NOT radioactive (once decontaminated). They can and should be held, fed and cared for.

The psychological aspect

Stress causes nausea and vomiting in large numbers of people who have received no significant dose. This is called "behavioural/psychogenic symptoms", and in real radiological incidents it accounted for most presentations. Do not panic, and do not spread panic to those around you.

13.14. Infectious diseases — the main long-term threat

In disasters more people die of diarrhoea and infection than of the primary effect.

Disease Route Signs What to do
Acute diarrhoea (general) Water, food, hands Loose stools, cramps ORS. Keep eating. Wash hands
Cholera Water Profuse watery "rice water" stools, rapid dehydration ⭐ ORS in huge quantities. An antibiotic (doxycycline) shortens the course. Death within hours without rehydration
Dysentery (shigellosis) Water, hands Blood and mucus in the stool, fever, cramps Antibiotic, ORS. ⛔ Do not give loperamide with bloody diarrhoea and fever
Typhoid Water, food Stepwise fever, rash, abdominal pain Antibiotic. A severe course
Hepatitis A/E Water, food Jaundice, nausea, dark urine Supportive care. ⚠️ Hepatitis E is very dangerous in pregnancy
Respiratory infections, pneumonia Air, crowding Cough, fever, breathlessness Antibiotic if bacterial. Ventilation, distance
Tuberculosis Air Prolonged cough, weight loss, night sweats, coughing blood ⚠️ It returns with crowding and hunger. Treatment requires months of several drugs
Wound infections, tetanus Wounds See 13.8 Irrigation, antibiotic, vaccination in advance
Typhus (lice-borne) Lice Fever, rash, headache ⭐ Delousing: washing at high temperature, cutting hair short, insecticides. Doxycycline
Scabies Contact Itching, especially at night, burrows between the fingers Treat the body and the clothing
Leptospirosis Water with rodent urine Fever, muscle pain, jaundice ⚠️ A risk when working in flooded basements. Do not go into water with open wounds
Malaria (in endemic regions) Mosquitoes Periodic fever with chills Nets, repellents, antimalarials

Prevention matters more than treatment

Measure Risk reduction
Washing hands with soap after the toilet and before eating ⭐ The most effective measure in the history of medicine
Disinfecting water
A proper latrine away from water
Separating "clean" and "dirty" zones
Cooking food thoroughly
Controlling flies and rodents
Isolating people with diarrhoea
Not sharing utensils and towels

13.15. Overheating

Condition Signs Action
Heat cramps Painful muscle spasms Rest in the shade, salt solution/ORS
Heat exhaustion Heavy sweating, weakness, nausea, headache, pallor, temperature < 40 °C, consciousness preserved Shade, remove clothing, sponge down, ORS, rest. Improvement within 30 minutes
Heat stroke ⛔ Hot dry or clammy skin, temperature > 40 °C, confusion/loss of consciousness, convulsions Life-threatening. Immediate aggressive cooling: douse with water, fan, ice on the neck/armpits/groin, immersion in cool water. Every minute counts

⚠️ In a shelter with no ventilation in summer, overheating can kill faster than the radiation outside. Watch the temperature in the room.


13.16. Special groups: pregnancy, infants, the chronically ill

⚠️ This section was added following the audit: without it the document gave averaged recommendations that were dangerous for some people.

Pregnancy and radiation

Fact Significance
The foetus is more radiosensitive than an adult, especially in the first trimester and during organogenesis (roughly weeks 2–15) Sheltering and evacuation are a priority
Thresholds for deterministic effects (malformations, growth restriction) are usually discussed from 100 mGy and above to the foetus; below that level the risk of malformation is considered extremely small ⚠️ This is not permission to receive such doses
Doses of the order of a few mGy (ordinary diagnostic radiography) are not considered grounds for terminating a pregnancy Important against panic
Radioiodine after week 10–12 is actively taken up by the foetal thyroid This is why KI is indicated for pregnant women at a lower threshold

Confidence: medium — the specific thresholds differ between guidelines (ICRP, IAEA, national bodies); the general conclusion that the foetus is more sensitive is Confidence: high.

Practical rules for a pregnant woman:

  • ⭐ Priority in allocating the best place in the shelter goes to pregnant and breastfeeding women and children.
  • ⭐ KI: a dose of 130 mg, with the lowest threshold for use (see STAGE 10). ⚠️ The FDA does not recommend repeat doses — a risk of suppressing the foetal thyroid. One dose plus shelter and control of food.
  • Increased requirement for water (+0.7–1.5 l/day), calories, protein, iron and folate.
  • ⛔ Do not give: doxycycline and other tetracyclines, fluoroquinolones, metronidazole in the first trimester (where avoidable), NSAIDs in the third trimester.
  • ⚠️ Dehydration and fever are dangerous to the foetus — rehydration is a priority.
  • ⚠️ Childbirth without medical help is a serious risk. In advance, find someone in your group or nearby with obstetric experience, and keep the relevant literature (see STAGE 32: Where Women Have No Doctor).

Infants and children under 3

Feature Consequence
Very rapid dehydration ⭐ ORS in small amounts, a teaspoonful every 1–2 minutes
Immature thermoregulation They get cold and overheat quickly; ⭐ a hat, skin-to-skin contact
Breastfeeding Continue it. This is the cleanest and safest food: even if the mother drinks moderately contaminated water, the risk to the child is lower than from formula made up with the same water. Confidence: high — this is WHO's consistent position in humanitarian crises
Formula ⚠️ Make it up only with water known to be clean. Prepare one feed at a time
⛔ Honey for children under 1 Clostridium botulinum spores — infant botulism
KI Doses of 16 mg (under 1 month) and 32 mg (1 month – 3 years); ⚠️ the FDA does not recommend repeat doses for neonates
Maximum risk of thyroid cancer from radioiodine ⭐ Children are the first priority for KI and for milk control

The chronically ill — who will be killed by the absence of medicines

⭐ This is the most predictable and most preventable group of deaths. Make the list now.

Condition What happens without medication What to do in advance
Type 1 diabetes ⛔ Death within days to weeks (ketoacidosis) ⭐ The largest possible stock of insulin; plan for cooling (a cellar, running water, an evaporative cooler). ⚠️ Insulin retains its activity for a limited time at room temperature (of the order of 4 weeks for many preparations)
Epilepsy Status epilepticus, death A stock of anticonvulsants; ⛔ abrupt withdrawal is especially dangerous
Asthma, COPD Death in an exacerbation, particularly against a background of smoke ⭐ A stock of inhalers, a spacer, systemic steroids as prescribed by a doctor
Heart failure, arrhythmias, ischaemic heart disease Decompensation, heart attack A stock of medicines; ⚠️ abrupt withdrawal of beta blockers is dangerous
Hypertension Crisis, stroke A stock; ⚠️ do not stop abruptly
Adrenal insufficiency ⛔ Crisis, death under stress A stock of hydrocortisone, an increased dose during illness
Hypothyroidism Decompensation over weeks to months A stock of levothyroxine (it keeps well)
Psychiatric conditions ⚠️ Abrupt withdrawal of antipsychotics, antidepressants and mood stabilisers causes severe withdrawal syndromes A stock; taper gradually when running out is unavoidable
Dialysis ⛔ Death within 1–2 weeks ⚠️ Honestly: without dialysis there is nothing to be done. Restricting potassium (⛔ exclude dried apricots, bananas, potatoes, nuts, salt substitutes) and fluids extends the time
Opioid/alcohol dependence ⚠️ Withdrawal from alcohol and benzodiazepines can be fatal (delirium, seizures) Know this; taper gradually, thiamine, hydration

Action today: for every family member, write down on paper: the diagnosis, the drug, the dose, and what will happen on withdrawal. Discuss a 90-day supply with your doctor.


STAGE 14. THE FIRST-AID KIT

This document does not propose or describe synthesising medicines yourself. That is dangerous and pointless. ⚠️ All prescription medicines are obtained legally, on a doctor's prescription, in advance. Discuss an emergency stock with your doctor — many doctors understand this.

14.1. Level 1: CRITICALLY IMPORTANT

Without these, people die in the first hours and days.

Item Purpose Limitations and mistakes
Haemostatic tourniquet, 2 Massive limb bleeding Always write down the time. Narrow improvised tourniquets damage tissue
Haemostatic dressing/powder Bleeding where a tourniquet cannot be used Requires pressure on top. Not in the eyes
Gauze bandages, 10+ Everything The stock runs out instantly
Sterile pads/dressings Wounds
Roll and adhesive plasters Small wounds, securing dressings
Medical scissors (blunt-ended) Cutting clothing, bandages Cutting clothing off is safer than removing it
Nitrile gloves, 20+ pairs Protection from infection in both directions Latex — risk of allergy
Antiseptic (chlorhexidine 0.05 %, povidone-iodine) Treating wound edges, hands ⚠️ Do not pour it into deep wounds
Soap Wound irrigation, hygiene The most underrated medical item there is
Painkiller: paracetamol Pain, fever ⚠️ No more than 3–4 g/day for an adult. ⛔ Overdose destroys the liver, often irreversibly. ⛔ Do not combine with alcohol
Painkiller: ibuprofen Pain, inflammation, fever ⚠️ Not with ulcers, renal failure or dehydration. ⛔ Not where bleeding is suspected or platelets are low
ORS (oral rehydration salts), 20+ sachets Diarrhoea, dehydration, burns, blood loss ⭐ Saves more lives than antibiotics do. Make it up exactly as instructed
Personal prescription medicines, 30–90 day supply Chronic illness People with diabetes, epilepsy, asthma or heart failure are the first to die without their medicines
Space blanket (emergency blanket) Hypothermia, shock Cheap, compact, effective
Thermometer Diagnosing infection Electronic + spare batteries

14.2. Level 2: VERY USEFUL

Item Purpose Limitations
Elastic bandage Sprains, support Not tight
Triangular bandage Arm sling, support, tourniquet base Versatile
Splints (SAM splint or improvised) Fractures
Tweezers Foreign bodies, splinters, ticks
10–20 ml syringes without needles Irrigating wounds under pressure ⭐ An underrated tool
Saline in ampoules/bottles Rinsing eyes, wounds Sterile
Cling film Burns, occlusive chest dressing ⭐ Cheap and effective
Antihistamine (cetirizine, loratadine, diphenhydramine) Allergy, itching, bites ⚠️ Drowsiness with first-generation drugs
Antiemetic (metoclopramide, ondansetron — prescription) Vomiting in ARS, infections, head injury Allows them to drink
Loperamide Diarrhoea without fever or blood Not with bloody diarrhoea and high fever — it keeps the pathogen in
Activated charcoal Some poisonings ⚠️ Not for poisoning by acids/alkalis/petroleum products. ⛔ It does not remove radionuclides
Antacids Heartburn, stomach pain
Antibiotic ointment Small wounds, burns Not for deep wounds
1 % hydrocortisone ointment Dermatitis, bites, itching ⛔ Not on infected skin
Antifungal cream (clotrimazole) Athlete's foot, intertrigo — typical where hygiene is lacking
Delousing agent / body insecticide Typhus, itching Critical in crowded conditions
Toothache: clove oil, temporary filling material Toothache with no dentist ⚠️ A dental infection can become fatal
Condoms Contraception; also waterproofing, a water container Pregnancy in these conditions is extremely dangerous
Eye drops (lubricating, antibacterial) Dust, conjunctivitis
Ear drops Otitis

14.3. Level 3: USEFUL

Item Purpose
Stethoscope, blood-pressure cuff Monitoring
Pulse oximeter Assessing respiratory failure
Stretcher/backboard Moving casualties
Scalpel, clamps, needle holder, suture material ⚠️ For the trained only
Urinary catheter ⚠️ For the trained only
Bag-valve mask CPR
Nasopharyngeal airway Keeping the airway open
Hot water bottle/chemical heat packs Hypothermia
Surgical spirit Disinfecting instruments and surfaces
Potassium permanganate, peroxide Disinfection (limited)
Zinc ointment, petroleum jelly Intertrigo, skin protection
Laxative Constipation from dehydration and low mobility
Sugar/glucose tablets Hypoglycaemia
Multivitamins Deficiencies on a monotonous diet
A medical reference book on paper ⭐ Knowledge

14.4. Level 4: SPECIALISED (prescription, on a doctor's orders)

⚠️ Obtain these only legally. Use them only if you understand the indications.

Group Example Indications Critical limitations
Broad-spectrum antibiotic Amoxicillin / co-amoxiclav Respiratory, skin and dental infections ⛔ Penicillin allergy. ⚠️ Not for viral infections
Alternative antibiotic Doxycycline Respiratory and skin infections, typhus, cholera, malaria (prophylaxis) ⛔ Children < 8, pregnancy. ⚠️ Photosensitivity
Gut/broad-spectrum antibiotic Ciprofloxacin Intestinal infections, urinary infections, neutropenic fever ⚠️ Tendon rupture, neuropathy. ⛔ Usually not for children
Antibiotic for anaerobes/protozoa Metronidazole Amoebiasis, giardiasis, anaerobic wound infection ⛔ Absolutely incompatible with alcohol
Strong painkiller An opioid analgesic Severe trauma, burns ⛔ Respiratory depression. ⚠️ Dependence. Keep strict records
Adrenaline (epinephrine) auto-injector Anaphylaxis ⭐ The only thing that saves life in anaphylaxis
Prednisolone/dexamethasone Severe allergy, asthma, oedema ⚠️ Suppresses immunity. ⛔ Not in infection without antibiotic cover
Salbutamol (inhaler) Asthma, bronchospasm from smoke ⭐ Critical for asthmatics
Insulin Type 1 diabetes ⚠️ Requires refrigeration. Without a fridge it loses potency within weeks. A lethal problem
Potassium iodide See STAGE 10 See STAGE 10
Antiemetic Ondansetron ARS, infections

⚠️ Particular storage problems

Medicine Problem
Insulin Requires +2…+8 °C. At room temperature, up to 28 days. ⛔ This is probably the hardest medical problem of a post-apocalypse. Plan cooling in advance (a cellar, a clay evaporative cooler, running water)
Glyceryl trinitrate Loses potency, sensitive to light and air
Antibiotic suspensions Short shelf life once made up
Adrenaline Sensitive to light and heat
Vaccines Cold chain. Unavailable

14.5. Expiry dates — what actually happens

Confidence: medium

  • Most solid dosage forms (tablets, capsules) kept in a dry, cool place retain a substantial part of their potency for years past the stated date. The SLEP programme study (USA, for strategic stockpiles) found that most preparations retained potency on average for more than 5 years beyond the expiry date.
  • ⚠️ Exceptions where expiry is dangerous or renders the drug useless: old tetracycline formulations (risk of kidney damage — its relevance to modern preparations is disputed), glyceryl trinitrate, insulin, liquid antibiotics, eye drops (sterility), adrenaline, vaccines.
  • ⚠️ Storage conditions matter more than the date: heat, humidity and light destroy medicines faster than time does.

Practical rule: expired painkillers or blood-pressure tablets probably work slightly less well. Expired insulin, adrenaline or an antibiotic for a life-threatening infection cannot be considered reliable.

14.6. What NOT to do with medicines

⛔ Mistake Consequence
Synthesising medicines yourself Poisoning, explosion, a useless product
Using veterinary preparations on people without understanding the dosages Overdose, wrong excipients
Taking antibiotics "just in case" for any fever Wasting a limited resource, resistance, side effects
Stopping an antibiotic course when you feel better Relapse, resistance
Combining several NSAIDs (ibuprofen + aspirin + others) Gastrointestinal bleeding, kidney damage
Exceeding 4 g of paracetamol per day Liver failure, death
Giving aspirin to children with a viral infection Reye's syndrome
Giving loperamide in bloody diarrhoea Retention of the pathogen, toxic megacolon
Storing medicines in the bathroom Humidity and heat destroy them
Mixing medicines in one jar without labels Lethal mistakes

STAGE 15. SANITATION

Sanitation is the most underrated topic in survival. In historical disasters, diarrhoeal disease killed more people than the disaster itself.

15.1. The toilet

Hierarchy of solutions

Situation Solution
Drainage works, water available An ordinary toilet. Flush with utility water (a bucket into the pan)
Drainage works, water scarce Flush once every several uses; do not flush urine every time
Drainage does not work, you are in a building Do not use the toilet — if the soil stack blocks, the sewage goes to the neighbours below. Make a "bucket toilet"
Long term, with land available A pit latrine / composting toilet

The "bucket toilet" (two-bucket system)

Equipment:
  • 2 buckets with tight lids (20 l), one for urine, one for faeces
  • Heavy-duty bags as liners
  • A seat (it can be taken off the toilet or made from plywood)
  • Cover material: sawdust, ash, dry earth, sand, peat, cat litter,
    shredded paper

Procedure:
  1. Separate urine and faeces — THIS IS THE KEY POINT. The mixture smells many times worse
     and composts less well
  2. After each use, cover the faeces with a handful of cover material
  3. Keep the lid closed
  4. Change the bag when it is full, tie it, take it out
  5. Pour urine away separately. In a healthy person it contains few
     pathogens, but it is NOT STERILE; diluted 1:10 to 1:20 with water
     it serves as a nitrogen fertiliser at the root (not on the leaves)

Siting:
  • As far as possible from the eating and sleeping area
  • Water and soap for handwashing right beside it
  • A ventilated place

A pit latrine (long term)

Parameter Requirement Why
Distance from a water source (well, borehole, river) At least 30 m, preferably 50 m, and downhill Groundwater contamination
Distance from dwellings 15–30 m Smell, flies
Depth 1.5–3 m Capacity and isolation
Distance to the water table At least 1.5–2 m from the bottom of the pit Contamination
Lid Mandatory Flies
Vent pipe Desirable Smell, flies
Cover material Ash, lime, earth after each use Smell, flies, pathogens

Confidence: high — these are the standard WHO/Sphere requirements for field sanitation.

⚠️ The 30 m distance from water is not a recommendation but a requirement. Breaking it = an epidemic.

15.2. Handwashing — the number one measure

When

MANDATORY:
  • After the toilet
  • After changing a nappy / caring for a sick person
  • BEFORE preparing and eating food
  • After contact with waste, bodies, animals
  • After coming back from outside
  • After handling contaminated objects

How (when water is scarce)

A "tippy tap" — a washstand that uses 50–100 ml per wash:

  1. A plastic bottle/jerrycan is hung neck down or on its side.
  2. A small hole in the cap, or the bottle is tipped by a pedal/string.
  3. Soap on a string beside it.
  4. Water runs in a thin stream only while it is tipped.

Washing procedure: wet → soap → rub for 20 seconds (palms, between the fingers, backs of the hands, thumbs, nails, wrists) → rinse → air-dry or use a clean cloth.

With no water at all: alcohol hand sanitiser (≥60 % alcohol). ⚠️ It does not work on visibly dirty hands, nor against some pathogens (norovirus, C. difficile, spores).

Soap substitutes: ash (alkali), sand + water (mechanical), clay. ⚠️ Worse than soap, but better than nothing.

15.3. Laundry

Level Method
Minimum Airing and drying in the sun (UV kills a great deal)
Basic Soaking in soapy water, wringing, rinsing, drying in the sun
With lice/scabies ⭐ Wash at 60 °C or above, or iron the seams with a hot iron, or seal in a bag for 2 weeks
Disinfection Boil the linen for 10–15 minutes; or soak in a weak chlorine solution

⚠️ Saving water: wash the cleanest items first, then dirtier ones in the same water. Used water goes to flush the toilet.

15.4. Washing yourself

  • Minimum: a wipe-down with a damp cloth every 1–2 days, concentrating on armpits, groin, feet and skin folds — the sites of intertrigo and fungal infection.
  • The "soldier's shower": 2–3 litres of water. Wet → turn off → soap → rinse.
  • Feet: wash them and dry them thoroughly every day. Wet feet in boots = trench foot and fungal infection, both of which put a person out of action.
  • Hair: wash it less often, cut it shorter. A short haircut is a practical measure against lice and contamination.

15.5. The kitchen

Rule Why
Separate boards/knives for raw meat and everything else Cross-contamination
Wash up immediately Bacterial growth
Pour boiling water over the utensils where possible Disinfection
Do not leave cooked food at room temperature for > 2 hours Bacterial multiplication
Reheat to boiling/steaming, not just "to warm" It kills the bacteria that have built up
Keep food covered against flies and rodents Disease transmission
One designated person cooks, and they must not have diarrhoea ⭐ One sick cook infects the whole group
The cook washes their hands before every session

15.6. Storing water

  • Separate containers for drinking and utility water. Label them.
  • Take drinking water out with a long-handled dipper or through a tap; ⛔ do not dip hands and mugs into the container.
  • Keep containers covered.
  • Wash and disinfect the containers every 1–2 weeks.
  • Do not pour water back from a mug into the container.

15.7. Flies

A fly carries pathogens from faeces to food in seconds. Fly control = a direct reduction in mortality.

Measure Effectiveness
Keeping latrines covered and waste covered with material ⭐⭐⭐
Keeping food covered ⭐⭐⭐
Removing organic waste immediately ⭐⭐⭐
Screens on windows ⭐⭐
Sticky strips, homemade traps (a bottle with bait) ⭐⭐
Destroying breeding sites (manure, compost, rubbish) ⭐⭐⭐

15.8. Mosquitoes

Measure Against what
Eliminate standing water (barrels, tyres, puddles, tins) Breeding
Cover every water container Breeding
Mosquito nets on windows and over sleeping places ⭐ The main measure in endemic areas
Repellents (DEET, picaridin) Bites
Long sleeves at dusk and dawn Bites
Smoke from a fire Partially

15.9. Rodents

Rats and mice carry leptospirosis, hantavirus, plague (via fleas) and salmonellosis; and they destroy stores.

Measure How
Storing food in metal, glass or thick plastic ⭐ A rat gnaws through thin plastic, cardboard and wood
Sealing openings Wire mesh, steel wool, cement. A mouse gets through a 6 mm hole
Traps Mechanical ones are the most reliable without electricity
Removing waste Take away the food source
⚠️ Poisons Dangerous to children and animals; a poisoned rodent dies inside a wall
A cat ⭐ An effective biological method

⚠️ When cleaning up rodent droppings, dampen them with water and disinfectant and clean wet, in gloves and a respirator. ⛔ Do not sweep or vacuum dry droppings — hantavirus is transmitted as an aerosol.

15.10. Handling the bodies of the dead

⚠️ A hard but necessary topic.

Fact: the bodies of people killed by trauma are not usually a source of epidemics. The main epidemic pathogens spread from living sick people and from sewage. (The WHO/PAHO position.)

But: the bodies of people who died of infectious disease (cholera, typhoid, haemorrhagic fevers) are dangerous.

Practical rules

  1. Work in gloves and a mask; wash your hands afterwards.
  2. Do not leave bodies near a water source or dwellings.
  3. Burial: depth at least 1.5 m, at least 30 m from water sources, above the water table.
  4. Identify and record: name, date, place, circumstances, place of burial, distinguishing features, personal effects. ⭐ This matters for surviving relatives and for the future.
  5. Mark the place of burial so that it can be found again.
  6. Cremation requires a great deal of fuel (~200–400 kg of wood per body) — usually unrealistic.
  7. Allow people to say goodbye. This matters for the group's mental health (see STAGE 40).

Confidence: high as regards bodies of trauma victims not creating an epidemic threat — this is WHO's consistent position.


STAGE 16. SHELTER

16.1. Four horizons

Horizon Main criterion Acceptable
Hours Maximum gamma protection Basement, car park, metro, tunnel, building core. Comfort is irrelevant
Days Protection + water + toilet + ventilation A basement with access to water, a room with a ventilation duct
Weeks + warmth, light, sanitation, somewhere to sleep, psychological comfort A flat/house in an undamaged building, with a basement
Permanent housing + heating, cooking, storage, repairability, land, security A house with a stove, a cellar, a vegetable plot, a water source

The key consideration: the best shelter for hours (the metro) may be the worst for weeks. Plan the transition.

16.2. Assessing a building for suitability

Structural safety

Sign Assessment
Cracks through load-bearing walls wider than 5 mm, still moving ⛔ Do not go in
Distorted door and window openings ⛔ Dangerous
Sagging slabs, deflections ⛔ Dangerous
Exposed deformed reinforcement, spalling concrete ⛔ Dangerous
Walls out of plumb ⛔ Dangerous
Sounds of cracking, creaking, falling material ⛔ Leave immediately
Smell of gas ⛔ Do not switch on lights, do not make sparks, get out, shut it off
Fire damage to the structure ⚠️ Strength is reduced
A flooded basement ⚠️ Assess the risk, electrical hazard
Sound walls, square openings, no cracks ✅ Probably suitable

⚠️ Even an "intact" building may have hidden damage after a detonation. Prefer low-rise and rigid structures for long-term occupancy.

Checklist when moving into a building you have found

□ The structure is sound (see above)
□ The gas is shut off at the inlet
□ The electricity is isolated at the inlet (if the wiring is damaged)
□ Two exits found and passable
□ No smell of gas, chemicals or burning
□ No bodies or biological hazards
□ The roof does not leak
□ Windows and doors can be closed
□ There is, or can be made, ventilation
□ There is a water source within reasonable distance
□ There is a place for a latrine away from water and dwellings
□ The radiation background inside and outside has been measured and recorded
□ Fire risk assessed (neighbouring buildings, warehouses, filling stations)
□ The possibility of heating without CO poisoning has been assessed

16.3. Ventilation

Requirements

Task Requirement
Not suffocating (CO2) At least 3–5 m³ of fresh air per person per hour
Not being poisoned by CO (wherever anything is burning) ⭐ Far more; see STAGE 17
Not letting dust in Filtering the incoming air through cloth/a filter
Not overheating Through-flow, shade
Not getting damp Through-flow, removing moisture from breathing and cooking

The "airtightness versus air" conflict

RULE:
  During ACTIVE FALLOUT (the first hours): minimise the air supply,
  filter it through cloth. Put up with the stuffiness.

  AFTER fallout has settled (24 h+): restore normal ventilation.
  The danger from dust outside falls; the danger from CO2, moisture and mould inside
  grows continuously.

  WHENEVER ANYTHING IS BURNING INSIDE: ventilation is ALWAYS mandatory, no exceptions.
  CO kills faster than radiation.

Signs of inadequate ventilation

  • Condensation on walls and windows.
  • Stale air, everyone has a headache.
  • A candle burns dimly or goes out (a crude indicator of oxygen shortage).
  • Mould on the walls within a few days.
  • Clothing will not dry.

16.4. Insulation

Measure Effect Note
Reduce the volume being heated ⭐⭐⭐ Live in one room, not three. A tent inside a room is very effective
Cover windows with blankets, or two layers of plastic with an air gap ⭐⭐⭐ Windows are the main route of heat loss
Plug the gaps around doors and windows ⭐⭐ But do not seal completely
Carpets, cardboard, polystyrene on the floor ⭐⭐ The cold comes from below
Sleep raised up, not on the floor ⭐⭐ Cold air sits low
A curtain across the doorway (an air lock) ⭐⭐ It cuts off the outflow of heat
Insulation from the inside (cardboard, carpets, polystyrene on exterior walls) ⭐⭐ ⚠️ Risk of condensation and mould between the insulation and the wall
Snow as insulation against the outside of the walls ⭐⭐ ⚠️ Only if the structure will take it; ⚠️ the snow may be contaminated
Group together, sleep together ⭐⭐ Bodies warm each other

The "basement versus top floor" rule in winter

  • Basement: stable temperature (the ground holds +4…+10 °C), but damp and no sun.
  • Top floor: solar warming by day, but enormous losses at night.
  • Middle floors: usually the optimum in winter (the neighbouring flats act as a buffer).

16.5. Humidity

The problem: an adult exhales and evaporates about 1–2 litres of water a day. In a closed room with 4 people that is 4–8 litres a day, which condenses on the walls.

Consequences: mould (allergy, asthma, aspergillosis), damp clothing (hypothermia), spoiled stores, structural damage.

Solutions

Measure Effect
Airing for 5–10 minutes 2–3 times a day (a burst, with the windows wide open) ⭐⭐⭐ The most effective: cold air comes in, warms quickly, and takes up the moisture
Do not dry laundry in the living room ⭐⭐
Keep lids on pans while cooking ⭐⭐
Do not keep open containers of water
Containers of salt, lime or silica gel as a desiccant ⭐ Locally
Insulate exterior walls from the outside, not the inside ⭐⭐ It moves the dew point out of the wall

16.6. Temporary structures

If there is no building.

Structure Pros Cons Fallout protection
Tent Fast, easy Zero radiation protection, holds heat poorly PF ≈ 1
Dugout / covered trench ⭐ Excellent protection against radiation and cold Labour, damp, risk of collapse PF 10–100+ with 50+ cm of earth overhead
Slit trench with a roof Fast (1–2 hours per person), effective Cramped, damp PF 10–50
Snow shelter (igloo, snow trench) Excellent thermal insulation ⚠️ The snow may be contaminated; ⚠️ risk of suffocation on collapse Moderate gamma protection
A structure built from earth-filled sacks Good protection Enormous labour High at a thickness of 50+ cm
Garage, shed, cellar, inspection pit Ready made Variable quality A cellar is excellent
Drainage pipe, concrete culvert Excellent protection ⚠️ Risk of flooding High

The simplest do-it-yourself fallout shelter (a "covered slit trench")

  1. Dig a trench 1.2–1.5 m deep, 0.6–0.9 m wide, and as long as the number of people requires (1 m per person).
  2. Roof it with logs, doors or metal sheets, leaving an entrance.
  3. On the roof — at least 40–60 cm of compacted earth.
  4. The entrance should have a bend (L-shaped) or be shielded with earth-filled sacks.
  5. Leave a ventilation opening at the far end.
  6. ⚠️ In loose soil, shore up the trench walls or it will collapse.
  7. ⚠️ Divert water away: a bund around the perimeter, a drainage ditch.

Confidence: medium — this is the classic solution from civil-defence manuals; its actual effectiveness depends on the workmanship.

16.7. Carbon monoxide and fire in the shelter

See STAGE 17 and section 2.21. In brief:

  • ⛔ Never burn coal, gas, petrol or kerosene indoors without a flue vented to the outside.
  • ⛔ Never use a barbecue, grill or gas hob for heating.
  • ✅ A battery-powered CO detector is the cheapest insurance there is.
  • ✅ Always two exits.
  • ✅ The extinguisher by the exit, not at the back.

STAGE 17. FIRE AND HEAT

17.1. Comparison of fuels

Fuel Calorific value Storage Hazards Suitability indoors
Firewood (dry) ~15 MJ/kg Years if kept dry Fire, sparks, smoke, CO ⚠️ Only in a stove with a flue
Firewood (green) ~8 MJ/kg Lots of smoke, creosote, little heat ⚠️ Poor
Charcoal ~30 MJ/kg Years Very high CO output, almost no smoke or smell — so no warning NEVER indoors
Coal 25–33 MJ/kg Years CO, sulphur, ash, clinker ⚠️ Only in a stove with a flue
Peat briquettes ~15 MJ/kg Years, dry Smoke ⚠️ Stove
Natural gas / LPG (propane-butane) ~46–50 MJ/kg Cylinders — years Explosion, leaks, CO from incomplete combustion ⚠️ Only with ventilation; ⛔ not for heating without a flue
Petrol ~44 MJ/kg ⚠️ 3–6 months (up to 1–3 years with stabiliser) The vapour is explosive at room temperature. Flash point around −40 °C ⛔ Never for cooking/heating indoors
Diesel ~43 MJ/kg ⚠️ 6–12 months (longer with stabiliser and biocide) Less explosive (flash point > +55 °C), but sooty; ⚠️ microbial contamination in storage ⚠️ Only in purpose-built heaters with a flue
Kerosene/paraffin ~43 MJ/kg ⭐ 2–5+ years — the best stability Soot, CO, smell ⚠️ Paraffin heaters/lamps — only with good ventilation
Alcohol (ethanol, methanol) ~27/20 MJ/kg Years ⚠️ The flame is almost invisible; ⛔ methanol is poisonous (blindness, death) ⚠️ A burner with ventilation; the cleanest combustion of all
Solid fuel tablets (hexamine) ~30 MJ/kg ⭐ Very long Toxic formaldehyde fumes ⚠️ Ventilation
Biomass (straw, dung, cones) 12–17 MJ/kg Lots of smoke, high ash ⚠️ Stove

17.2. ⛔ CARBON MONOXIDE — THE LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH IN A POWER CUT

This is not a theoretical risk. After every major hurricane and snowstorm anywhere in the world, mass CO poisonings from generators, barbecues and heaters are recorded.

Properties of CO

  • Colourless, odourless, tasteless, non-irritating.
  • It binds to haemoglobin roughly 200–250 times more tightly than oxygen does.
  • The symptoms are indistinguishable from flu and tiredness.
  • The victim does not realise they are being poisoned, and falls asleep.

⛔ ABSOLUTE PROHIBITIONS

⛔ NEVER
A generator in the house, garage, basement, on a balcony, under a canopy, or by an open window
A generator closer than 6 metres (20 feet) to the house, doors, windows or ventilation
A barbecue, grill or charcoal indoors or in a tent
A gas hob or oven for heating
A car engine running in a closed garage
A stove without a flue vented to the outside
A paraffin heater without ventilation, especially at night while asleep
A closed stove damper while the embers are still smouldering

First aid for CO poisoning

1. GET THEM OUT into fresh air IMMEDIATELY
   ⚠️ The rescuer will be poisoned too — hold your breath, act fast,
      open doors/windows before going in
2. Fresh air, rest
3. If oxygen is available — give 100 % oxygen
4. If not breathing — CPR
5. ⚠️ Symptoms can return after hours or days (delayed
   neuropsychiatric sequelae)
6. ⚠️ Pregnant women, children, the elderly and cardiac patients are at particular risk

CO detector

A battery-powered standalone CO detector is inexpensive and is the only way to detect carbon monoxide. ⭐ Buy one. Test it every six months.

17.3. Stoves and flues

Requirements for a safe indoor stove

Requirement Why
A flue vented to the outside, gas-tight Removal of CO and smoke
Draught checked (smoke goes up, not into the room) Without draught — poisoning
Air supply into the room (a gap, an opening) Combustion needs oxygen; without incoming air the draught fails
A non-combustible base and clearances from walls (min. 0.5 m, preferably 1 m) Fire
A heat shield/reflector next to combustible walls Fire
The damper is not closed until the embers have burned out completely ⛔ A closed damper over smouldering fuel = CO in the room
Regular flue cleaning Soot and creosote → a chimney fire
An extinguisher nearby

An improvised stove

Made from a metal drum, a cylinder or thick-walled pipe. ⚠️ It requires: * a flue of metal pipe led out through a window/wall with a non-combustible penetration (mineral-wool sealing, a metal sheet); * the section of pipe outside running vertically at least 1 m above the exit point; * gas-tight joints throughout; * protection of the floor against burn-through.

⛔ Improvised stoves are the leading cause of fires in disaster areas. If you are not confident, it is better to be cold in a sleeping bag than to burn.

17.4. Saving fuel

Technique Saving
Season firewood in advance (1–2 years) Up to 2×
Cook in a "hay box" (thermal cooker): bring to the boil for 10 minutes, then wrap the pan in blankets/straw for 2–4 hours ⭐ Up to 70 % of the fuel
Pressure cooker 30–50 %
Keep the lid on the pan 20–30 %
Soak pulses/grains beforehand 30–50 % of the cooking time
Cook for everyone at once
A rocket stove instead of an open fire ⭐ Several times more efficient than an open flame
A solar oven (a box with foil and glass) ⭐ Free fuel in a sunny climate
Split the wood small Better combustion
One good hot burn rather than a low fire all day Less condensation and soot

17.5. Storing fuel

Fuel Conditions Shelf life Notes
Firewood Under cover, ventilated, off the ground Years Seasoning 1–2 years
Coal Dry, under cover Years Can self-ignite in large heaps
Petrol ⚠️ Metal/approved can, cool, outside the dwelling, away from anywhere with sparks 3–6 months; 1–3 years with stabiliser ⛔ Not in a basement, not in a flat
Diesel The same 6–12 months; longer with stabiliser and biocide Microbial contamination — "diesel bug"
Kerosene The same ⭐ 2–5+ years The most stable
Bottled gas Upright, outside the dwelling, protected from heating Years ⛔ Not in a basement — propane is heavier than air and pools at the bottom

Never store petrol in a living space. Petrol vapour is heavier than air, flows along the floor, and ignites from any spark (including static electricity and the spark of a light switch).

17.6. Fire safety in daily life without electricity

Rule
Candles only in a stable non-combustible holder, away from curtains and paper, never unattended, never while asleep
Paraffin lamps on a stable surface; do not carry them lit through a cluttered room
Matches/lighters out of reach of children
The extinguisher by the exit, not by the stove
A bucket of sand and a bucket of water by the stove
⛔ Do not use water on: burning oil/fat (steam explosion), live electrics, burning metal, lithium batteries
Burning oil in a pan — cover it with a lid or a wet towel and turn off the heat
Clean the flue and the extract regularly
Everyone in the group knows where the exits and extinguishers are

STAGE 18. ELECTRICITY

18.1. Basic concepts

Quantity Symbol What it is Water analogy
Voltage V (volt) The "pressure" of electricity Pressure in the pipe
Current A (amp) Quantity of electricity per second Flow rate
Power W (watt) The rate of energy consumption Litres per second × pressure
Energy Wh (watt-hour) A quantity of energy Volume of water
Battery capacity Ah (amp-hour) Charge Tank volume (at a known pressure)
Resistance Ω (ohm) Opposition to current Narrowness of the pipe

The formulas you need

P (W)  = U (V) × I (A)              Power = voltage × current
E (Wh) = P (W) × t (h)              Energy = power × time
E (Wh) = Capacity (Ah) × U (V)      Battery energy

Examples:
  A 12 V × 60 Ah battery = 720 Wh (theoretically)
  Actually available: ~50 % for lead-acid = ~360 Wh
                      ~80–90 % for LiFePO4 = ~580–650 Wh

  A 5 W lamp running off 360 Wh: 360/5 = 72 hours
  A phone needing 15 Wh per charge: 360/15 = 24 charges

AC and DC

DC (direct current) AC (alternating current)
What it is Current flows one way Current reverses 50 or 60 times a second
Where Batteries, cells, solar panels, USB The mains, generators, most household appliances
Voltages 1.5 / 3.7 / 5 / 12 / 24 / 48 V 110–127 / 220–240 V
Conversion DC→AC: an inverter. AC→DC: a rectifier/power supply
Safety 12 V is safe to touch ⛔ 220 V is lethal

Practical conclusion: work at 12 V DC wherever you can (12 V LED strips and lamps, USB chargers, automotive equipment). An inverter loses 10–20 % of the energy and creates a dangerous voltage.

18.2. Energy sources

Batteries

Type Cell voltage Depth of discharge Cycles Pros Cons
Lead-acid starter (car) 2 V (6 in a battery = 12 V) ⚠️ No lower than 50 %, preferably 20 % 100–300 at deep discharge Cheap, available everywhere Heavy, hates deep discharge, gives off hydrogen
Lead-acid traction / deep-cycle 12 V Down to 50–80 % 300–1000 Tolerates discharge More expensive
AGM / gel 12 V Down to 50–80 % 400–1000 Sealed, does not leak, less gassing More expensive, sensitive to overcharging
LiFePO4 (lithium iron phosphate) 3.2 V (4 = 12.8 V) Down to 80–90 % 2000–6000 ⭐ The best: long-lived, light, safer than other lithium chemistries Expensive, ⚠️ must not be charged below 0 °C
Li-ion / Li-Po (phones, laptops, power banks) 3.6–3.7 V Down to 80 % 300–1000 Compact ⛔ Fire risk when damaged
NiMH (AA-type rechargeables) 1.2 V Full 500–2000 Safe, replaces disposables Self-discharge (except low-self-discharge types)

⚠️ Connecting batteries

⛔ Never Why
Connect batteries of different capacity, age, type or chemistry in parallel The "stronger" battery discharges into the "weaker" one at an enormous current. Overheating, boiling, explosion
Connect batteries of different capacity in series The weak one is over-discharged and reverse-charged
Mix lead-acid and lithium in one bank Different charge voltages; both are destroyed
Connect without a fuse on each branch Fire if one of the batteries shorts

✅ Correct: identical batteries, from the same batch, of the same age, equally charged before connection, with a fuse on each branch and leads of equal length.

Rules for charging lead-acid batteries

  • Charge current — roughly 10 % of the capacity (for 60 Ah, about 6 A).
  • Charge voltage: 14.4–14.8 V (cycle), float — 13.5–13.8 V.
  • ⚠️ Ventilation is mandatory — hydrogen is given off and is explosive.
  • ⚠️ Do not charge a frozen battery.
  • ⛔ Do not leave it standing discharged for long — sulphation kills the battery.
  • Resting voltage: 12.7 V ≈ 100 %; 12.4 V ≈ 75 %; 12.2 V ≈ 50 %; 12.0 V ≈ 25 % — time to charge; below 11.8 V — damage.

Solar panels

See STAGE 36 for the full system calculation.

Generators

Type Pros Cons
Petrol Cheap, light ⛔ CO; noisy; fuel ages; 1000–2000 h service life
Diesel More economical, lasts longer Heavy, expensive, noisy
Inverter type Quieter, more economical at low load, clean sine wave More expensive
A car You already have it Extremely inefficient for small loads (1–2 l/h at idle for the sake of 100 W)

The alternator (car generator)

With the engine running it gives 13.8–14.4 V and 50–150 A. It can charge external batteries. ⚠️ It requires an understanding of the wiring; ⛔ run it only outside enclosed spaces.

18.3. Components of an off-grid system

SOLAR PANEL → CHARGE CONTROLLER → BATTERY → LOADS (12 V DC)
                                       ↓
                                  INVERTER → LOADS (220 V AC)
Component Function What matters
Panel Converts light into DC W (peak power), open-circuit voltage Voc
Charge controller Prevents over-charging and over-discharging the battery PWM — cheap, loses up to 20–30 %. MPPT — dearer, 15–30 % more efficient, essential if the panel's Voc is well above the battery voltage
Battery Stores the energy See above
Inverter DC → AC ⚠️ A "modified sine wave" damages some appliances (motors, chargers, medical equipment). "Pure sine wave" is dearer but universal. Efficiency 85–92 %, plus its own standby consumption
Fuses ⭐ Mandatory Without them a short circuit causes a fire. Fit them as close to the battery as possible
Cables Carry the current ⚠️ At 12 V the currents are 20 times higher than at 230 V for the same power. A thin cable heats up and burns

Cable cross-sections for 12 V (guide)

Current Up to 3 m Up to 6 m
5 A 1.0 mm² 1.5 mm²
10 A 1.5 mm² 2.5 mm²
20 A 2.5 mm² 4 mm²
50 A 6 mm² 10 mm²
100 A 16 mm² 25 mm²

Confidence: medium — cross-sections depend on the permissible voltage drop; these are given with a margin.

18.4. ⛔ Hazards

Short circuits

⚠️ A car battery delivers hundreds of amps into a short circuit. A spanner dropped across the terminals glows white-hot and can make the battery explode.

Rules: * Remove rings, watches and bracelets when working on a battery. * Disconnect the negative first, connect the negative last. * Work with insulated tools. * Always fit a fuse in the positive lead at the battery.

Lithium fires

⛔ A damaged, swollen, punctured, soaked or overheated lithium-ion battery can go into thermal runaway: temperatures of 600–900 °C, the release of flammable and toxic gases (hydrogen fluoride among them), and self-sustaining combustion without any oxygen supply.

⛔ Never ✅ Correct
Charge a swollen/damaged battery Isolate a damaged one in a non-combustible container outside the building
Pierce, dismantle or crush them Dispose of them whole
Charge unattended overnight in a living space Charge in daytime, on a non-combustible surface
Charge in the cold (for lithium — below 0 °C) Warm it to room temperature first
Put out a small Li-ion fire with water? ⚠️ Contested. A lot of water cools it and helps. A small amount does not. A dry-powder extinguisher knocks the flame down but does not cool. The best tactic is to carry it outside and let it burn out, without breathing the smoke
Leave lithium-fire smoke in the room Evacuate immediately: hydrogen fluoride is extremely toxic

Polarity

⚠️ Reversed polarity kills electronics instantly and can cause a fire.

  • Red = positive (+), black = negative (−). But in salvaged equipment, check with a multimeter.
  • Fit a diode or a fuse for protection.
  • Label every wire before you take anything apart.

High voltage

⛔ Hazard Rule
Power lines Always treat them as live. Even with the "grid off", supply from generators or induced voltage is possible
A downed cable on the ground ⛔ Do not approach closer than 8–10 m. Retreat with a "shuffling gait" (feet never leaving each other) — step potential
Transformer substations ⛔ Do not enter
Capacitors (in power supplies, microwave ovens, camera flashes) ⛔ They hold a dangerous charge after disconnection. Discharge them through a resistor
Wet hands, damp floors They sharply increase the danger

⛔ Backfeeding the grid

Never connect a generator to the house wiring through a socket (a "suicide cable" with a plug at each end).

Why: 1. Your voltage passes backwards through the house transformer and is stepped up to thousands of volts on the line — which kills repair crews. 2. If the grid comes back suddenly, the generator will be destroyed and a fire is possible. 3. There is no overload protection.

Correct practice: connect appliances to the generator directly with extension leads, or use a certified transfer switch installed by an electrician.


STAGE 19. COMMUNICATIONS

19.1. The key distinction: LISTENING versus TRANSMITTING

LISTENING (receiving) TRANSMITTING
Risk Zero ⚠️ It reveals your existence and approximate location
Equipment Cheap, available Dearer, often requires a licence
Value ⭐⭐⭐ Enormous: information about zones, aid, the situation ⭐⭐ Coordination with your group, calling for help
Power Little (0.5–2 W) A lot (5–100 W in bursts)
Priority Always start with listening Later, deliberately

Safety rule: in the first days and weeks — receive only. Going on the air is a considered decision, made once you understand who is around you.

19.2. Bands and systems

System Frequencies Range Licence Use
AM / MW broadcasting 530–1710 kHz Tens of km by day, hundreds to thousands at night Not needed (to receive) ⭐ The main source of information. The civil-defence band in many countries
LW broadcasting 148–283 kHz Hundreds of km Wound down in some countries
FM / VHF broadcasting 87.5–108 MHz 30–80 km Local stations. The first to disappear
SW broadcasting 3–30 MHz ⭐ Thousands of km, intercontinental ⭐ The only way to learn about the wider world
Aviation band 108–137 MHz AM Hundreds of km (aircraft) A sign that aviation is operating
Marine VHF 156–163 MHz Tens of km Coastal areas
NOAA Weather Radio (USA) 162.400–162.550 MHz Tens of km Weather and alerts, USA
CB, "27 MHz" 26.9–27.4 MHz 5–30 km; hundreds of km during propagation openings In most countries none needed, or notification only ⭐ An accessible two-way band, with plenty of sets among lorry drivers
PMR446 (Europe) 446 MHz 0.5–5 km Not needed Handheld radios, low power (0.5 W)
FRS (USA) 462/467 MHz 0.5–3 km Not needed The same
GMRS (USA) 462/467 MHz 5–30 km ⚠️ Required (USA) Higher power, repeaters
LPD433 433 MHz 0.5–3 km Depends on the country Cheap handhelds
Amateur radio (ham) Many bands from 1.8 MHz to GHz ⭐ From local to worldwide ⚠️ A licence is required (get it in advance!) ⭐ The best option for serious communications
Satellite communications Global Subscription ⚠️ Depends on ground stations and the satellites themselves working; ⚠️ vulnerable in a nuclear war

19.3. What to buy and when

Priority Device Why
1 AM/FM/SW receiver with dynamo and batteries ⭐ Information. Cheap. No licence
2 A stock of batteries Endurance
3 A pair of PMR/FRS/LPD handhelds Communication within the group over 1–3 km. No licence
4 A CB set (handheld or vehicle) Greater range, many users
5 An amateur VHF/UHF set (2 m / 70 cm) + licence Real two-way communication, repeaters
6 An amateur HF set + antenna Long-distance communication. Requires skill

⚠️ Get an amateur licence in advance if you plan to transmit. It gives you not only the right but the knowledge: how to tune an antenna, what SWR is, how propagation works. Without that, an expensive set is useless.

19.4. Antennas — half the battle

Rule Why
Height matters more than power At VHF, range is set by line of sight. An antenna 10 m higher does more than doubling the power
The antenna outside, not in the basement Reinforced concrete screens radio waves
Length matters A half-wave dipole for frequency f (MHz): total length ≈ 143 / f metres. A quarter-wave whip ≈ 71.5 / f metres
A counterpoise/ground for whip antennas Without one, efficiency drops several-fold
⛔ Never put an antenna near power lines Lethal
For AM reception — a long wire ("longwire") of 10–30 m It improves reception dramatically

Example calculation

For 145 MHz (the 2 m amateur band):
  quarter-wave whip = 71.5 / 145 = 0.49 m ≈ 49 cm
  half-wave dipole = 143 / 145 = 0.99 m, i.e. 49 cm per leg

For 27 MHz (CB):
  quarter-wave whip = 71.5 / 27 = 2.65 m

Confidence: high — standard formulas; in practice they need trimming (a velocity factor of ~0.95).

19.5. Communications discipline

RULES IF YOU GO ON THE AIR:

1. LISTEN FIRST. At length. For days. Work out who is on the air and what they are saying.
2. DO NOT give out in clear:
   • your exact address
   • the number of people and weapons
   • the quantity of food, fuel and medicine you hold
   • the timing and routes of your excursions
3. Set a SCHEDULE for contacts (for example 08:00 and 20:00, 5 minutes)
   → It saves batteries and reduces time "on the air"
4. Designate a PRIMARY and a BACKUP channel
5. Short transmissions. A long transmission = more time for direction finding
6. Agreed code words for routine messages (a simple pre-arranged code)
   → ⚠️ This is not encryption, it is abbreviation
7. The minimum power that will do the job
8. Keep a LOG: time, frequency, with whom, what was passed

19.6. Communication without radio

Method Range Use
Notes in agreed places ⭐ The most reliable method in a city
Marks and signs (chalk, paint, arranged stones) Route marking, warnings
Whistle 0.5–1.5 km ⭐ A distress signal. International: 6 blasts a minute, then a minute's pause
Mirror/heliograph ⭐ Up to 10–40 km on a sunny day Signalling aircraft or a distant observer
Fire/smoke Kilometres Three fires in a triangle is the international distress signal
Flags, cloth on the roof Kilometres Signalling aircraft
Runners on foot The main means of long-distance communication in the pre-industrial era
A torch at night Kilometres Signalling. SOS: · · · — — — · · ·
A bell, a hanging rail, a siren 1–3 km Alerting a settlement

Ground-to-air signals (laid out on the ground, at least 3 m in size)

Sign Meaning
V Assistance required
X Medical assistance required
(arrow) Proceeding in this direction
N No / negative
Y Yes / affirmative
F Food and water required
LL All is well

STAGE 20. NAVIGATION

20.1. What to take

Item Pros Cons
Paper topographic map ⭐ Needs no power, shows relief, cannot break Goes out of date, vulnerable to water
Magnetic compass ⭐ Needs no power, reliable ⚠️ Lies near metal, magnets and power lines; magnetic declination
GPS receiver / phone with GPS Accuracy of metres ⚠️ Battery; ⚠️ the system can be switched off, jammed, or degrade
Offline maps on a phone (OsmAnd, Organic Maps) Detailed, searchable Battery
Map wheel/ruler, protractor Measuring on the map

⚠️ About GPS: satellite navigation systems are under state control and can be switched off, jammed, or degrade without maintenance. And even if GPS works, your phone will go flat. A paper map and a compass are the only guarantee.

Confidence: medium as to the survival of GNSS in a nuclear war; Confidence: high that it cannot be relied on as your only means.

20.2. Map basics

Scale

Scale 1 cm on the map = Use
1:25,000 250 m Detailed terrain, walking routes
1:50,000 500 m ⭐ The all-purpose walker's scale
1:100,000 1 km A district
1:200,000 2 km Road routes
1:500,000+ 5 km+ A region, planning

Coordinates

Format Example Note
Degrees, minutes, seconds 55°45'21" N 37°37'04" E The classic form
Degrees and decimal minutes 55°45.35' 37°37.07' Marine/aviation
Decimal degrees 55.75583, 37.61778 ⭐ Convenient for writing down and for GPS
UTM / MGRS 37U CA 12345 67890 A metric grid, convenient for distances

In practice: write important points down in decimal degrees and duplicate them with a verbal description ("at the second bridge from the fork, right bank").

Magnetic declination

A compass points to the magnetic pole; a map is drawn to true north. The difference (declination) can reach 10–20° or more.

  • The declination is given in the margin of a topographic map.
  • Easterly declination is added to the magnetic bearing to obtain the true bearing (the rule depends on the country and the conventions; check on your own map).
  • ⚠️ A 10° error over 10 km of travel puts you about 1.7 km off.

20.3. Orientation without instruments

Method How Accuracy
The sun Rises in the east, sets in the west (exactly so only at the equinoxes). At noon in the northern hemisphere the sun is due south ±20°
An analogue watch Point the hour hand at the sun; the bisector of the angle between the hour hand and the 12 points south (northern hemisphere) ±15°
Shadow of a stick (the equal-shadow method) Push a stick in, mark the tip of the shadow; mark again after 15–20 minutes; the line between the marks runs west to east ⭐ ±5–10°, the best method with nothing to hand
Polaris Find the Plough, extend the line of the two "pointer" stars five times — that is Polaris. It marks north ⭐ ±2°
The Southern Cross (southern hemisphere) Extend the long axis of the cross 4.5 times downwards ±5°
The moon A waxing moon bulges to the west, a waning one to the east (northern hemisphere) Rough
Moss on trees, rings on stumps, anthills ⚠️ Unreliable ⛔ Do not rely on it
Forest rides and compartment posts Compartment numbering runs west to east and north to south (in some countries) Depends on the country
Improvised compass A magnetised needle (rubbed on silk/a magnet) laid on a leaf on water It works, but needs a magnet

20.4. Planning a route through contaminated terrain

Rules

1. AVOID:
   • The downwind direction from ground zero (the main fallout plume)
   • Hollows, gullies and watercourses (runoff concentrates contamination)
   • Dense urban building (rubble, fires, people)
   • Industrial zones, filling stations, chemical stores
   • Bridges (they may be destroyed; a bottleneck)
   • Water bodies whose water has not been checked

2. PREFER:
   • Moving PERPENDICULAR to the wind direction to get out of the plume —
     this is the shortest way out of the contaminated strip
   • High ground (better visibility, less accumulation of fallout in runoff)
   • Asphalt and hard surfaces (less dust, easier walking)
   • Open ground rather than forest (woodland catches fallout in the canopy
     and sheds it later)
   • Routes with known shelters every 1–2 hours of travel

3. MEASURE (if you have an instrument):
   • Dose rate every 15–30 minutes of travel
   • If the readings rise — STOP, assess, change direction
   • Record in the log: time, place, readings

The rule for leaving a fallout plume

⭐ A fallout plume is an elongated strip running with the winds aloft. It is many times narrower than it is long. Therefore:

Leave the plume across it, not along it.

If you are 20 km downwind of ground zero, walking another 50 km downwind is pointless — you stay in the plume the whole way. Walk 10 km across it, and you are probably out.

20.5. Travel speed (realistic estimates)

Conditions Speed Day's march
Good road, light load, adult 4–5 km/h 25–35 km
Road, with a 15–20 kg rucksack 3–4 km/h 20–25 km
Rough ground, woodland 2–3 km/h 12–18 km
Rubble, a destroyed city 1–2 km/h 5–10 km
With children 2–3 km/h 8–15 km
With elderly people, injured, or a load 1–2 km/h 5–10 km
Deep snow, without skis 1–2 km/h 5–8 km
Mountains (ascent) Add 1 hour per 300–400 m of climb

⚠️ Plan realistically. People systematically overestimate how far they will get. The first day's march after a catastrophe is usually half what was planned.


STAGE 21. TRANSPORT

21.1. Comparison

Transport Consumption Repairability Daily range Load capacity Fuel Assessment
On foot 3000–4500 kcal/day 20–30 km 15–25 kg Food ⭐ Always works
On foot with a barrow/handcart The same Very high 15–25 km ⭐ 50–150 kg Food ⭐⭐ An underrated solution
Bicycle ~+30–50 % over basal metabolism ⭐ High (simple mechanics) ⭐ 50–100 km 20–50 kg (with a rack and trailer, up to 100) Food ⭐⭐⭐ The best ratio of all
Bicycle with trailer The same High 40–70 km up to 80–100 kg Food ⭐⭐⭐
Motorcycle / moped 2–5 l/100 km Medium 200–400 km 30–80 kg Petrol ⭐⭐ Economical, gets through
Petrol car 7–12 l/100 km ⚠️ Low (electronics) 400–700 km ⭐ 300–500 kg Petrol ⭐ While there is fuel and there are roads
Diesel car 5–8 l/100 km ⭐ Higher (older ones with a mechanical injection pump run without electronics) 600–1000 km 300–500 kg Diesel, ⭐ vegetable oil/biodiesel possible ⭐⭐ The best choice of car
Electric vehicle (EV) ⛔ Very low (no spares, no diagnostics) 200–400 km 300–500 kg Electricity (⚠️ kilowatts needed) ⚠️ Works while charged; charging from a 300 W solar panel takes weeks
Lorry 20–35 l/100 km Medium 500–800 km ⭐⭐ Tonnes Diesel ⭐ For relocating a group
Tractor ⭐ High (simple mechanics) Tonnes, plus draught Diesel ⭐⭐ Indispensable for agriculture
Horse, ox Grass, hay 30–50 km 80–150 kg as a pack; a tonne in a cart ⭐ Grass ⭐⭐ The only long-term solution
Rowing boat Muscle power High 20–40 km 200–500 kg ⭐⭐ Rivers are excellent roads
Motor boat 5–20 l/h Medium 100–300 km 500 kg+ Petrol

21.2. Why the bicycle is the best choice

Reason
Needs no fuel
Gets through where cars are gridlocked
Can be carried/dragged over rubble
Repairable with simple tools; tubes and chains are consumables that are easy to find
Silent (attracts no attention)
Carries 3–5 times more than a person on foot
3–4 times faster than walking
Cheap

Preparing a bicycle: rack, panniers/bags, mudguards, repair kit (patches, glue, tyre levers, pump, spanners, spare tube, chain lube, spare spokes), dynamo light, lock.

⚠️ Allow for winter and mud: a bicycle works poorly in winter. Plan an alternative.

21.3. Fuel: ageing and storage

Fuel Shelf life without stabiliser With stabiliser Signs of degradation
Petrol 3–6 months 1–3 years A varnish smell, darkening, gums, sediment. Ethanol blends (E10) go off faster — they absorb water and separate
Diesel 6–12 months 1–5 years Cloudiness, sediment, slime (microbial contamination), smell
Kerosene ⭐ 2–5 years 5–10 years The most stable
Propane/butane in cylinders ⭐ Practically unlimited Does not degrade

Rules for storing fuel

  • Fill the container almost to the top — less air means less oxidation and condensation.
  • Sealed containers, a cool dark place.
  • Add stabiliser at the moment of filling, not later.
  • Rotation: use the old, top up with new.
  • ⚠️ Store it outside the dwelling. ⛔ Never in the basement of an occupied building.
  • For diesel — a biocide against "diesel bug".

What to do with old fuel

  • Old petrol can be diluted with fresh at 1:3–1:4 and used in undemanding machinery.
  • ⚠️ Do not put degraded fuel into an injected engine — it will block the injectors.
  • Old petrol can be used as a solvent, as a fire-lighting aid (⚠️ with extreme care), and for cleaning parts.

21.4. Alternative fuels (long term)

Fuel For what Difficulty
Vegetable oil (filtered, heated) Old diesels with a mechanical injection pump ⚠️ Requires heating and modification; on modern common-rail engines it will ⛔ destroy the fuel system
Biodiesel (transesterification of oil) Diesels Requires methanol and alkali, and a knowledge of chemistry
Wood gas (gasifier) ⭐ Petrol engines Used on a mass scale historically (the Second World War). A complex but achievable device. Power loss ~40 %. ⛔ Extremely high risk of CO poisoning
Ethanol (alcohol) Petrol engines with modification Requires distillation and drying
Methane (biogas) Stationary engines, heating Requires a digester

⚠️ All these technologies require knowledge and equipment. Keep the relevant literature in advance (see STAGE 32).

21.5. ⚠️ The car as a "false hope"

A typical planning error is to count on the car.

Problem Reality
Fuel Filling stations do not work without electricity. Siphoning from the tanks of abandoned cars is realistic, but needs a hose/pump and time
Roads Jammed, destroyed, blocked
Tyres Broken glass and metal. You have one spare
Electronics A modern car without diagnostics is nearly unrepairable
Battery It dies after 1–3 months standing
Conspicuousness Noise and visibility attract attention
Protection PF ≈ 1–2

Practical conclusion: have a car, but plan to survive without it.


PART IV. RESOURCES AND SETTLEMENT

STAGE 22. RESOURCE SEARCH

22.1. General rules for excursions

RULES FOR A SAFE EXCURSION

BEFORE:
  □ Define the OBJECTIVE and the LIST. Without a list you will waste your time
  □ Define the ROUTE out and back (different ones if possible)
  □ Define the TIME LIMIT outside (by dosimeter or by the clock)
  □ Leave a note: who, where, why, when they will be back
  □ Check the equipment: footwear, gloves, respirator, goggles, torch,
    water, first-aid kit, dosimeter, containers for what you bring back
  □ Go in at least a pair if possible. One stays in contact/on watch

DURING:
  □ Do not eat, drink, smoke or touch your face outside
  □ Measure the background every 15–30 minutes
  □ Move down the middle of streets, not along the walls
  □ Do not enter damaged buildings
  □ Do not raise dust
  □ Take what is on the PRIORITY list, not "whatever looks nice"
  □ Watch the time

AFTER:
  □ Decontamination at the entrance (STAGE 9)
  □ The haul goes into the "dirty" zone; wipe/wash it before bringing it in
  □ Record in the log: what was taken, from where, the state of the site,
    what is left, the risks

⚠️ The legal and ethical side: as long as any authority exists, taking other people's property is unlawful. This document describes the extreme case where no functioning society remains. The priority order: abandoned and ownerless goods; commercial stocks that will otherwise spoil; negotiating with owners where there are any. Conflict over resources is a frequent cause of death in disasters.

22.2. Table of sites

Site Useful resources Risks Priority
Pharmacy ⭐ Medicines, bandages, antiseptics, ORS, syringes, thermometers, glucometers, hygiene items, baby food, condoms ⚠️ Looted first; conflict; ⚠️ controlled drugs attract dangerous people ⭐⭐⭐
Hospital/clinic ⭐ Medicines, sterile supplies, instruments, oxygen cylinders, stretchers, autoclave, generators, dosimeters Radioactive sources (radiotherapy, brachytherapy — see STAGE 31); ⚠️ infection; ⚠️ bodies; ⚠️ crowded with people ⭐⭐⭐ (with caution)
Food shop, supermarket Tinned food, grains, oil, salt, sugar, water, household chemicals, batteries, matches ⚠️ Looted first; ⚠️ rotting food → infection, flies, rats ⭐⭐⭐
Builders' merchant / materials yard ⭐⭐ Tools, fixings, sheeting, tape, rope, tarpaulins, respirators, gloves, insulation, flue pipes, torches, batteries, generators, pumps, gas cylinders, mesh, spades, seeds ⚠️ Chemicals (paints, solvents); ⚠️ heavy objects ⭐⭐⭐ An underrated site
Garage, car repair shop ⭐ Tools, jacks, batteries, oils, antifreeze (⛔ poison), fuel, hoses, wire, welding gear, compressor, tyres ⚠️ Chemicals; ⚠️ fuel vapour ⭐⭐⭐
Filling station Fuel (⚠️ the pumps do not work without electricity), oils, water, food Fire and explosion hazard; ⚠️ vapour in the underground tanks ⭐⭐ (high risk)
Warehouse, distribution centre ⭐ Everything, in bulk; pallets (firewood); stretch wrap; forklifts (batteries!) ⚠️ May already be occupied; ⚠️ racking collapse ⭐⭐⭐
Farm, agricultural enterprise ⭐⭐ Grain, seed, feed, tools, fuel, tractors, livestock, fertiliser, water (boreholes), greenhouses ⚠️ Pesticides, ammonium nitrate, anhydrous ammonia; ⚠️ silage pits (⛔ asphyxiation); ⚠️ the owners ⭐⭐⭐ The key to long-term survival
University / institute ⭐⭐ Library, laboratories (reagents, glassware, microscopes), workshops, machine tools, generators, sports equipment, canteens Radioactive and chemical sources in the laboratories; ⚠️ biology labs ⭐⭐
Library ⭐⭐⭐ Knowledge (see STAGE 32); paper; maps ⚠️ Fire; ⚠️ damp ⭐⭐⭐ (a second-week objective, not a first-day one)
Fire station ⭐⭐ Protective equipment, rescue tools, hydraulics, ladders, ropes, pumps, radios, generators, first-aid kits, breathing apparatus ⚠️ May be occupied ⭐⭐⭐
School/nursery Food (the kitchen), first-aid kit, sports equipment, paper, books, generator, mattresses, crockery ⚠️ May be an assembly point for people ⭐⭐
Factory/works Metal, tools, machine tools, electric motors, cable, bearings, fixings, lubricant, welding gear, compressors Chemicals, industrial radioactive sources (radiography, level gauges); ⚠️ heavy plant ⭐⭐ (high risk)
Power station / substation Cable, transformers, battery banks (large!), tools, diesel fuel High voltage; ⛔ transformer oil may contain PCBs; ⛔ nuclear plants — see STAGE 31 ⚠️ Low priority, high risk
Water treatment works ⭐ Chlorine in bulk, coagulants, filters, pumps, laboratory reagents Chlorine cylinders are lethally dangerous; a leak kills ⚠️ Only with proper understanding
Electronics shop Batteries, power banks, cables, radio receivers, handheld radios, torches, solar panels, soldering irons ⚠️ Looted ⭐⭐
Sports/outdoor shop ⭐ Tents, sleeping bags, rucksacks, stoves, water filters, knives, clothing, footwear, compasses ⚠️ A popular target ⭐⭐⭐
Pet shop ⭐ Feed (edible by humans at a pinch), litter (for the toilet), carriers, veterinary medicines ⭐⭐
Fishing and hunting shop Tackle, knives, line, hooks, compasses, clothing, waterproof containers ⚠️ May attract armed people ⭐⭐
Cemetery / funeral director Tools for earthworks
Printing works Paper, alcohol, chemicals ⚠️ Solvents
Museum/archive ⭐ Knowledge, old technology in the flesh (hand tools, spinning wheels, ploughs) ⭐ Long term
Railway station Coal, diesel, tools, metal, covered wagons (shelter) ⚠️ Hazardous cargo in tank wagons ⭐⭐
Port/quay Boats, ropes, fuel, tarpaulins, containers ⚠️ Hazardous cargo ⭐⭐
Abandoned dwellings ⭐ Food, water, medicines, clothing, blankets, tools, candles, matches, books ⚠️ Collapse; ⚠️ the owners may return; ⚠️ bodies ⭐⭐⭐

22.3. Resource priority over time

Period What to look for first
1–3 days Water, medicines, batteries, torches, a radio, ready-to-eat food
1–2 weeks Long-life food, fuel, warm clothing, tools, containers, water disinfection agents
1 month Seeds, animal feed, generator/solar panels, a stove, medicines, footwear, books
3+ months Machine tools, farm implements, breeding stock, knowledge, skilled people, repair materials

22.4. What must not be taken

⛔ Do not take Why
Unknown chemicals in unmarked containers Lethally dangerous
Cylinders of unknown gas Explosion, asphyxiation, poisoning
Anything bearing the radiation hazard symbol See STAGE 31
Broken mercury-containing instruments Mercury vapour
Bulging tins Botulism
Medicines without packaging or labelling Lethal mistakes
Damaged lithium batteries Fire
Damaged asbestos-containing materials Dust, lung cancer
Transformer oil from old transformers PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls)
Anything that will not fit in the rucksack or that you will not need within a month Weight = time outside = dose

STAGE 23. TOOLS

23.1. Ranking of the most valuable tools

Scored on: versatility × irreplaceability × repairability × availability.

Rank Tool What for Comment
1 Knife (strong, fixed blade) Everything The most versatile object in history
2 Axe / splitting axe Firewood, dismantling structures, defence against animals, building ⭐ Without firewood there is no heat and no cooking
3 Spade (digging + shovel) Latrine, cellar, shelter, vegetable plot, burial, clearing ⭐ Earthworks are the foundation of survival
4 Wood saw Building, firewood, repairs Quieter and more precise than an axe
5 Crowbar / pry bar / nail puller Opening things, clearing rubble, leverage ⭐ It opens doors where there are no keys
6 Hammer Everything
7 Pliers / combination pliers Wire, nails, hot objects, gripping ⭐ An extension of your hand
8 Adjustable spanner + a set of open-ended/ring spanners Plumbing, mechanics Shutting off water and gas
9 Screwdrivers (cross-head, flat) / a bit set Everything
10 Hacksaw + spare blades Metal, pipes, padlocks Blades are a consumable — stock up
11 Files (rough, smooth, round) Sharpening, fitting, working metal ⭐ They let you make other tools
12 Sharpening stone / whetstone Maintaining knives, axes, scissors ⭐ A blunt tool is useless and dangerous
13 Rope / paracord (50+ m) Everything ⭐ Irreplaceable
14 Wire (steel, copper, tying wire) Repairs, fastening, snares, electrics ⭐ Underrated
15 Insulating tape + duct tape Repairing everything
16 Multimeter Diagnosing electrics, checking batteries ⭐ Without one, electrical work is guesswork
17 Soldering iron (preferably 12 V or gas) + solder + flux Repairing electronics and wiring
18 Drill (hand brace + cordless) + drill bits Drilling ⭐ A hand drill always works
19 Sewing kit (needles, strong thread, awl, thimble) Clothing, footwear, canvas, wounds (⚠️ only with training) ⭐ Clothing wears out fast
20 Clamps / vice A third hand Essential in any workshop
21 Tape measure, square, level, pencil Measuring Without measurement there is no quality
22 Winch / block and tackle / pulleys Lifting heavy loads without machinery ⭐ It multiplies your strength several-fold
23 Barrow / garden cart Moving loads ⭐⭐ Badly underrated
24 Buckets (several) Water, waste, storage
25 Jerrycans and sealed containers Water, fuel, storage
26 Pump (hand pump, for water and for a bicycle) Water, tyres
27 Splitting maul and wedges Splitting logs
28 Sickle / scythe Hay, grain, grass ⭐ Long-term agriculture
29 Cold chisel, centre punch, drift Metal
30 Chisels, plane Joinery Repairs and building

23.2. Consumables that will run out first

Stock these in excess — they are cheap now and priceless later.

Consumable Use
Nails, screws, bolts, nuts, washers All building and repair work
Hacksaw blades They blunt quickly
Abrasive paper in various grits Finishing, sharpening
Insulating tape, duct tape, cable ties Repairs
Glue (epoxy, PVA, wood glue, superglue) Repairs
Grease (general purpose, lithium, oil) Mechanisms, rust protection
Penetrating oil (WD-40 type) Freeing seized fasteners
Solder, flux, rosin Electronics
Wire of various cross-sections Electrics
Insulating materials Electrics
Batteries Everything
Strong thread, waxed thread, fabric, patches Clothing
Soap, detergents Hygiene
Candles, matches, lighters, flints Fire
Polythene sheeting, tarpaulin, covers Shelter, waterproofing
Sacks (cloth and polythene) Storage, carrying, reinforcement
Blades, razors Hygiene, cutting
Sharpening stones Maintaining tools

23.3. Tool care

Rule Why
Clean and dry after use Rust destroys a tool within a season
A thin film of oil on metal in storage Protection
Sharpen regularly, not once it is blunt A blunt tool is more dangerous: it slips
Wooden handles — linseed oil once a year They do not dry out and split
Store in a dry place, off the ground Damp
Do not use tools for the wrong job A screwdriver used as a chisel = a broken screwdriver
One storage place, labelled A lost tool is a lost tool

23.4. Sharpening — a critical skill

Fundamentals: * Sharpening angle: kitchen knife 15–20°, working knife 20–25°, axe 25–30°, chisel 25°, scissors 70–80°. * Strokes: away from the cutting edge or into it, but consistently, holding the angle. * Sequence: coarse stone (restoring the shape) → medium → fine (finishing) → stropping on leather. * Wet the stone with water or oil (depending on its type). * Testing sharpness: the knife cuts a freely hanging sheet of paper or shaves hair.

Without a sharpening stone: the base of a ceramic mug, ceramic tile (the rough side), a smooth river stone, glass with abrasive powder.


STAGE 24. AGRICULTURE

Within 6–12 months everyone's stores will run out. Producing food is the only way onward.

24.1. What a harvest requires

Resource Minimum Notes
Land 1000–2000 m² (0.1–0.2 ha) per person for a substantial contribution; 4000+ m² (0.4 ha) for full self-sufficiency ⚠️ Depends on climate, soil, crops and skill
Water 3–6 mm/day during the growing season = 30–60 l per m² per month ⭐ Often the limiting factor
Sun 6+ hours of direct light Shade cuts the yield several-fold
Soil A fertile layer, pH 6.0–7.0 for most crops Restored with compost and ash
Seed Open-pollinated varieties (not F1 hybrids!) See below
Labour 1–3 hours a day for 200–500 m² Peaks: planting and harvest
Tools Spade, hoe, rake, watering can/bucket The minimum
Knowledge ⭐ It determines everything A handbook for your zone is essential

24.2. Seed

⚠️ Critically important: F1 versus open-pollinated

F1 hybrids Open-pollinated (heirloom)
Yield Higher in the first year Lower
Seed saved from the crop Does not breed true — the second generation segregates and gives unpredictable, usually poor results Breeds true
Suitability for survival ⛔ Single-use ⭐⭐⭐ The foundation of food independence

Buy and keep only open-pollinated seed. On the packet: "open-pollinated", "heirloom", with no "F1"/"hybrid" marking.

Storing seed

Parameter Requirement
Seed moisture 5–8 % (dry, brittle)
Storage temperature ⭐ The lower the better. A cellar at +5…+10 °C; a freezer keeps it longer still
Air humidity Low. Silica gel or dry rice in the jar
Container Airtight glass jars or foil pouches
Light Darkness
Labelling ⭐ Name, year of collection, source

Harrington's rule (a guide): the sum of the temperature (°F) and the relative humidity (%) should be less than 100. That is, at 10 °C (50 °F) the humidity must be below 50 %.

Seed viability periods under good storage

Crop Years
Onion, parsnip, parsley 1–2
Maize, pepper, carrot, leek 2–3
Peas, beans, broad beans 3–4
Cabbage, radish, turnip, beetroot, tomato, pumpkin 4–5
Cucumber, melon, lettuce 5–6
Wheat, rye (grain) ⭐ 5–10+

Confidence: medium — the periods depend heavily on storage conditions; under ideal storage many seeds live longer.

Germination test: 10 seeds on damp cloth in a warm place for 7–14 days. 7 out of 10 germinate = 70 % germination, so sow more thickly.

24.3. Comparison of crops

Crop kcal/m²/year (indicative) Difficulty Time to harvest Storage Nutritional value Assessment
Potatoes ⭐ 1000–2500 Low 70–120 days Cellar 6–8 months Carbohydrate, vitamin C, potassium; little protein ⭐⭐⭐ The best start
Sweet potato (warm climates) 1500–2500 Low 90–150 days 4–6 months + vitamin A ⭐⭐⭐
Cereals (wheat, rye, barley) 300–800 Medium 90–120 days (spring-sown) ⭐⭐⭐ Years Carbohydrate + 10–13 % protein ⭐⭐⭐ The foundation of civilisation
Maize 600–1200 Medium 90–140 days Years (dry grain) Carbohydrate; ⚠️ deficient in niacin and lysine ⭐⭐
Beans, broad beans, peas 300–600 Medium 70–110 days ⭐⭐⭐ Years ⭐ 22–25 % protein, + nitrogen fixation in the soil ⭐⭐⭐ Indispensable for protein
Soya 400–700 Medium 100–150 days Years ⭐ 36 % protein, oil ⭐⭐
Beetroot 600–1200 Low 80–110 days Cellar 5–8 months Carbohydrate, sugar ⭐⭐
Carrots 400–800 Low 70–110 days Cellar 4–6 months ⭐ Vitamin A ⭐⭐
Turnip, swede 500–900 Very low 50–90 days Cellar Carbohydrate, vitamin C ⭐⭐ Historically they saved people from famine
Pumpkin, courgette 400–900 Low 90–130 days ⭐ Pumpkin 4–8 months without a cellar Vitamin A, seeds (oil, protein) ⭐⭐⭐
Cabbage 300–600 Medium 80–150 days ⭐ Fermented — months; vitamin C Vitamin C, fibre ⭐⭐⭐ Against scurvy
Onion, garlic 200–400 Low 90–150 days ⭐ 6–10 months Vitamins, antibacterial properties ⭐⭐⭐
Tomatoes 300–700 Medium 90–130 days Preserving Vitamins ⭐⭐
Sunflower 300–600 Low 100–140 days Years (seed) ⭐ Oil, protein ⭐⭐⭐ A source of fats
Rapeseed, flax (oilseeds) 200–500 Medium 100–140 days Years ⭐ Oil ⭐⭐
Greens (lettuce, spinach, radish) 100–300 Very low ⭐ 25–45 days Does not store ⭐ Vitamins, a fast result ⭐⭐ A quick psychological lift
Fruit trees (apple, pear, plum) 500–1500 Low once planted ⚠️ 3–8 years Months + drying Vitamins, sugars ⭐⭐ Long term; plant them immediately
Soft fruit bushes (currants, raspberries, gooseberries) 200–600 Low ⚠️ 2–3 years Drying, preserves ⭐ Vitamin C ⭐⭐

Confidence: low for the exact kcal/m² values — they vary several-fold with climate, soil, irrigation and skill. The figures given correspond to low-input cultivation without mineral fertiliser, herbicides or machinery, that is, what is realistically achievable after a catastrophe; modern industrial agriculture yields 2–4 times more. Confidence: high for the relative ordering: tubers and root crops give more calories per unit area, cereals store better and carry more protein.

⭐ A practical first-year strategy

40 % of the area — POTATOES (calories fast, no milling needed)
20 % of the area — PULSES (protein + nitrogen for the soil)
20 % of the area — ROOT CROPS and CABBAGE (vitamins, storage)
10 % of the area — GREENS and FAST crops (vitamins within a month)
10 % of the area — CEREALS (trial them, learn, build up seed)

Plus: plant fruit trees and soft fruit IMMEDIATELY — they will start
      cropping in 2–5 years, and that decision has to be taken in the first year

24.4. Crop rotation

⚠️ Monoculture in one place exhausts the soil and builds up disease. The classic four-course rotation:

YEAR 1: PULSES (peas, beans, broad beans) — they fix nitrogen from the air
   ↓
YEAR 2: LEAFY and BRASSICA crops (cabbage, lettuce, spinach) — they consume nitrogen
   ↓
YEAR 3: FRUITING crops (tomato, pumpkin, cucumber, pepper) — they consume phosphorus and potassium
   ↓
YEAR 4: ROOT CROPS (carrot, beetroot, potato, turnip) — they break up the soil
   ↓
(back to year 1)

Additional rules: * ⛔ Do not plant potatoes and tomatoes one after another (the same diseases — blight). * ⛔ Do not plant brassicas on the same ground more often than once in 4 years (club root). * ✅ Green manures (mustard, rye, vetch, phacelia) — sow in autumn, dig in in spring: this restores organic matter.

24.5. Soil and fertiliser without industry

Fertiliser What it provides Source
Compost ⭐ Organic matter, a little of everything, soil structure Plant waste, kitchen peelings, straw, leaves, paper
Manure ⭐ Nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, organic matter ⚠️ Must be well rotted (6–12 months), otherwise it burns roots and introduces pathogens and weed seeds
Wood ash ⭐ Potassium, calcium, phosphorus; raises pH ⚠️ No more than 100–200 g/m²; ⛔ do not mix with nitrogen fertiliser and manure at the same time. ⚠️ In a fallout zone, ash concentrates radionuclides from the burnt wood
Humanure compost Nitrogen, phosphorus ⚠️ Only after 1–2 years of composting at high temperature. Otherwise — an epidemic of helminths and intestinal infections
Urine ⭐ Nitrogen (highly available) Dilute 1:10–1:20 with water, apply at the root, not on the leaves. ⚠️ In a healthy person it contains few pathogens, but it is not sterile; during illness (including leptospirosis, schistosomiasis, typhoid) do not use it
Bone meal Phosphorus, calcium Calcine and grind bones
Green manures Nitrogen, organic matter Leguminous green manures (vetch, lupin, clover)
Silt, sapropel Organic matter, trace elements From the bottom of water bodies. ⚠️ Check for contamination
Seaweed Potassium, trace elements Coastal areas. ⚠️ Wash the salt off

⭐ Compost: how to make it

THE "BROWN + GREEN" RULE:
  Brown (carbon): straw, dry leaves, paper, cardboard, sawdust, twigs
  Green (nitrogen): grass, kitchen waste, manure, weeds

Ratio by volume roughly 2–3 : 1 (more brown)

LAYERS: 10–15 cm brown → 5 cm green → a handful of soil → repeat
MOISTURE: like a wrung-out sponge
AIR: turn it every 1–2 weeks
HEAP SIZE: no smaller than 1×1×1 m, or it will not heat up

TEMPERATURE: a properly made heap heats to 55–65 °C — this kills
weed seeds and pathogens. Check it with your hand or a stick

READINESS: 2–6 months (warm season), up to a year (cold).
Finished compost is dark, crumbly, and smells of earth

⛔ DO NOT ADD: meat, bones, fat (rats), diseased plants,
   dog and cat faeces, chemicals

24.6. ⚠️ Contaminated soil

How radionuclides get into plants

Cs-137 behaves like potassium, Sr-90 like calcium. Plants take them up through the roots, "mistaking" them for the elements they need.

Countermeasures (from the Chernobyl clean-up experience, IAEA/FAO)

Measure Effect Difficulty
Strip off the top 5–10 cm of soil and remove it ⭐⭐⭐ Radical (the bulk of the fallout is in the top layer) Enormous labour, and somewhere is needed to bury it
Deep ploughing (turning the layer down to 30–50 cm) ⭐⭐ It buries the contamination below the root zone for shallow-rooted crops Needs a plough/tractor
Applying potassium fertiliser (ash, potash) ⭐⭐⭐ Potassium competes with caesium — the plant takes up potassium instead of Cs-137 ⭐ Easy and cheap
Applying calcium (lime, chalk, gypsum, bone meal) ⭐⭐ Calcium competes with strontium Easy
Applying organic matter (compost, manure, peat) ⭐⭐ Organic matter binds caesium Easy
Liming acid soils ⭐⭐ It reduces nuclide mobility Easy
Choice of crops ⭐⭐ Lower accumulators: cereals, potatoes, root crops after peeling. Higher accumulators: leafy greens, pulses, mushrooms, berries, sorrel Free
Raised beds with imported clean soil ⭐⭐⭐ Full control Labour; clean soil required
Growing in a greenhouse on clean soil ⭐⭐⭐ Materials
Phytoremediation (sowing crops that take up Cs actively, then removing them) ⚠️ Slow, years The biomass has to be disposed of

Confidence: high — these countermeasures were applied and evaluated after Chernobyl.

The cheapest and most effective measure: applying potassium and calcium + the right choice of crops.

⚠️ Soil cannot be "cleaned" of Cs-137 within any reasonable time — the half-life is 30 years. After 30 years half of it remains, after 60 a quarter. Plan to live with it, not to defeat it.

24.7. Water for the vegetable plot

Method Water saved
Mulching (straw, cut grass, leaves, paper in a 5–10 cm layer) ⭐⭐⭐ Up to 50 % of the water; it suppresses weeds and preserves soil structure
Watering at the root, not over the leaves ⭐⭐
Watering early in the morning or in the evening ⭐⭐ Less evaporation
Drip irrigation (bottles with holes, a punctured hose) ⭐⭐⭐
Collecting rainwater from roofs into barrels ⭐⭐⭐ A 50 m² roof in 10 mm of rain yields ~500 l
Buried unglazed clay pots (ollas) filled with water ⭐⭐ An ancient technique, very effective
Using "grey" water (after washing, free of harsh chemicals) ⭐⭐ ⚠️ Not for leafy vegetables
Trench beds and swales (keyline) ⭐⭐ They hold back runoff

STAGE 25. ANIMALS

25.1. Comparison

Animal Feed per day Water Space Breeding Produce Labour Diseases Assessment
Chickens 100–150 g grain/compound feed 0.2–0.5 l 0.3–0.5 m²/bird in the house + a run ⭐ 21-day incubation, ⚠️ a broody hen or an incubator is needed; a layer gives 150–300 eggs/year ⭐ Eggs, meat, droppings (fertiliser), pest control ⭐ Low Coccidiosis, mites, avian flu ⭐⭐⭐ The best start
Rabbits 150–250 g (grass, hay, branches, vegetables) 0.3–0.5 l 0.5–1 m²/hutch ⭐⭐⭐ 31-day gestation, 6–10 kits, 4–6 litters a year Meat (lean), skins, manure Low ⚠️ Myxomatosis, RHD (high mortality) ⭐⭐⭐ The fastest conversion of grass into meat
Ducks 150–250 g 0.5–1 l + water to swim on is desirable 0.5 m² 28 days Eggs, meat, fat, down Low Hardier than chickens ⭐⭐
Goats ⭐ 2–4 kg hay/grass (they eat almost anything: branches, scrub, weeds) 4–8 l 2–4 m² in the shed + grazing 150 days, 1–3 kids a year ⭐⭐ Milk 2–4 l/day, meat, hair, manure Medium (milking twice a day) Parasites, mastitis ⭐⭐⭐ "The poor man's cow"
Sheep 2–4 kg 4–6 l 2–3 m² + grazing 150 days, 1–2 lambs Wool, meat, milk, skins Medium Parasites, foot rot ⭐⭐
Pigs ⭐ They eat almost anything (waste, acorns, root crops), 2–4 kg 5–15 l 2–4 m² 114 days, ⭐ 8–12 piglets, 2 litters a year ⭐⭐ Meat, lard (⭐ fat is scarce), hide Medium African swine fever, parasites (⚠️ trichinosis) ⭐⭐⭐ The best converter of waste
Cattle 10–20 kg hay/grass ⚠️ 40–80 l 5–10 m² + large pasture 280 days, 1 calf a year ⭐⭐⭐ Milk 10–25 l/day, meat, hide, manure, draught power ⭐ High Mastitis, tuberculosis, brucellosis ⭐⭐ Powerful, but resource-hungry
Bees ⭐ They feed themselves Need a water source A hive Swarming ⭐ Honey (10–40 kg/hive/year), wax (candles!), propolis, ⭐⭐ pollination Seasonal, requires knowledge Varroa, foulbrood ⭐⭐⭐ Enormous value to the vegetable plot
Pigeons 30–50 g Little A loft Year round Meat, ⭐ message carrying Low ⭐⭐ Underrated
Dog Meat/porridge ⭐ Guarding, alerting, hunting, hauling Medium ⭐⭐ Not food, a tool
Cat Mice ⭐ Rodent control (protecting stores) Minimal ⭐⭐

25.2. Order of acquisition

1. CHICKENS — quick return (eggs in 5–6 months), minimal resources
2. RABBITS  — fast breeding, meat from grass
3. GOATS    — milk (critical for children), they eat what nothing else will
4. BEES     — pollination matters more than honey; wax gives candles
5. PIGS     — turning waste into meat and fat
6. CATTLE   — if you have pasture and hands to work

25.3. Key rules

Rule Why
Always give water, without restriction An animal dies faster without water than without feed. A cow without water for a day — that is the end of the lactation
Keep at least 2–3 females and 1–2 males Otherwise there is no reproduction. One chicken is a single meal; a flock is food forever
Keep breeding records and avoid inbreeding Degeneration within 3–4 generations. ⭐ Exchange breeding stock with neighbours
Quarantine new animals for 2–4 weeks An introduced disease destroys the herd
Cleanliness in the housing, dry bedding The main disease prevention
Put up winter feed in summer ⭐ A cow eats 1.5–2 tonnes of hay over a winter. Without stored feed the animal has to be slaughtered
Protection from predators and people A solid shed, a dog, locks
⚠️ In a fallout zone — clean feed See STAGE 12. Fresh pasture grass is the main route of milk contamination

25.4. Feed: how much to store for winter (a guide, 6 months)

Animal Hay Grain/concentrates Root crops
Cow 1500–2000 kg 300–500 kg 500–1000 kg
Goat 250–400 kg 50–100 kg 100–200 kg
Sheep 200–350 kg 40–80 kg 100 kg
Pig 300–500 kg 300–600 kg
Chicken (per head) 20–30 kg
Rabbit (per head) 30–50 kg 10–15 kg 20–30 kg

Confidence: medium — the figures differ by breed, productivity and climate.

25.5. Veterinary care in the field

⚠️ There will be no veterinary medicines. What actually works:

Problem Measure
Prevention ⭐⭐⭐ Cleanliness, dryness, ventilation, adequate feed, no overcrowding
Internal parasites (worms) Wormwood, pumpkin seeds, garlic, rotating pasture. ⚠️ Less effective than manufactured medicines
External parasites (mites, lice) Dust baths with ash for poultry, wood tar, washing, cleaning the housing, liming
Wounds Irrigation, wood tar, honey, cleanliness
Mastitis Milking out completely, massage, warmth, hygiene
A sick animal ⭐ Immediate isolation from the herd
Deaths ⭐ Burn or bury deep (≥1.5 m) away from water. ⛔ Do not feed to other animals and do not eat it yourself when the cause of death is unknown

⚠️ Zoonoses — diseases transmissible to people: brucellosis (milk), tuberculosis, anthrax, trichinosis (pork), toxoplasmosis, rabies, psittacosis.

The main protection: boil/pasteurise milk, cook meat thoroughly (especially pork and game — trichinosis), wash hands after contact with animals, do not eat animals found dead.

Pasteurising milk: heat to 63 °C and hold for 30 minutes, or to 72 °C and hold for 15 seconds, then cool quickly. Simpler: bring it almost to the boil and hold it there for a few minutes.


STAGE 26. FOOD STORAGE

26.1. Comparison of methods

Method What it preserves Duration Resources Risks Assessment
Drying (air, solar) Fruit, vegetables, herbs, mushrooms, meat, fish ⭐ Months to years Sun/heat, air Mould if under-dried, insects ⭐⭐⭐ The best ratio
Salting / curing Meat, fish, vegetables, fat ⭐ Months to years ⚠️ A lot of salt Over-salting, under-salting → spoilage ⭐⭐⭐
Fermenting Cabbage, cucumbers, vegetables, milk Months Salt, a vessel, a cool place Mould where it contacts air ⭐⭐⭐ It preserves vitamin C
Smoking Meat, fish, cheese Weeks to months Wood, a smokehouse ⚠️ Carcinogens with frequent consumption; under-smoked food spoils ⭐⭐
Cellar / basement Root crops, potatoes, apples, cabbage 4–8 months A pit, ventilation Rot, freezing, rodents ⭐⭐⭐
Canning in jars Almost everything ⭐ 1–5 years Jars, lids, heat BOTULISM if the method is wrong ⭐⭐ (with knowledge)
Sealing under fat (confit) Meat Months Fat, a cool place Spoilage if the seal is broken ⭐⭐
Cooling (cellar, stream, evaporative cooler) Everything Days to weeks A cool place ⭐⭐
Freezing Everything Months ⚠️ Frost or electricity ⚠️ A thaw = losing everything ⭐⭐ Free in winter
Sugar (jam, honey) Fruit Years A lot of sugar Fermentation if there is too little sugar ⭐⭐
Grain storage Grain, pulses ⭐ 5–30 years Dryness, airtightness, oxygen absorbers Insects, moisture, rodents ⭐⭐⭐

26.2. Drying

Product Preparation Conditions Sign of readiness
Apples, pears Slice 3–5 mm, can be dipped in salted water (against browning) 50–60 °C or sun + wind, 6–24 h They bend without breaking and are not sticky
Berries Whole or halved The same Shrivelled, not sticky
Herbs Whole, in bunches ⭐ In the shade, with a draught They crumble
Vegetables (carrot, beetroot, onion) Slice thinly, blanch 2–3 min 50–60 °C Brittle
Mushrooms Slice, do not wash Shade, wind, threaded on a string Brittle
Meat (jerky) ⚠️ Cut into thin strips across the grain, salt, marinate if you wish 60–70 °C for the first hours, then 50–60 °C. Or in sun + wind at low humidity It bends and cracks without snapping
Fish Gut, salt, air-dry Wind, shade, protection from flies Firm

⚠️ Safety when drying meat: the USDA recommends heating the meat to 71 °C before drying (or after) to destroy pathogens. Sun drying at low temperature does not guarantee safety. Confidence: high

⚠️ Protection from flies when drying in the open air — muslin, netting. Flies lay eggs on drying meat.

26.3. Salting

Product Method Salt
Meat (dry cure) Rub with salt, lay in layers, press down, keep cool ⚠️ 15–20 % of the weight of the meat for long storage
Meat (wet cure) In brine Brine at 20–25 % (250 g of salt per litre of water)
Fish Layered with salt 15–25 % of the weight
Fatback Rub generously with salt As much salt as it will take
Vegetables Layered with salt 2–3 % for fermenting, 10 %+ for long-term salting

⚠️ Under-salting is more dangerous than over-salting. Over-salted food can be soaked; under-salted food rots and can cause botulism.

⚠️ Curing salt (sodium nitrite) has historically been used to protect against botulism in meat products. Without it, dry-curing meat under anaerobic conditions is risky. If you have no curing salt, prefer drying and good ventilation to tight packing.

26.4. Fermenting

The principle: lactic acid bacteria ferment the sugars, the pH drops below 4.0–4.6, and pathogens cannot grow.

SAUERKRAUT (basic recipe)
  • Shred the cabbage
  • Salt: 2 % of the weight of the cabbage (20 g per kg)
  • Work it until the juice runs
  • ⭐ Pack it down so that the brine COMPLETELY covers the cabbage
  • A weight on top
  • 18–22 °C: 3–7 days of active fermentation (skim the foam, pierce it
    to let the gases out)
  • Then to a cool place (0–5 °C): it keeps for months
  • ⭐ It preserves vitamin C — the key antiscorbutic in winter

⚠️ THE GOLDEN RULE: the produce is ALWAYS UNDER THE BRINE.
   Whatever sticks out will go mouldy.
⚠️ A white film of yeast on the surface — skim it off, it is harmless.
⛔ Fluffy coloured mould (black, green, pink) — throw the lot away.

26.5. The cellar

Parameter Requirement
Temperature 0…+4 °C for most root crops; potatoes +2…+4 °C (colder and the starch turns to sugar and the potatoes taste sweet; warmer and they sprout)
Humidity 85–95 % for root crops; dry for grain and onions
Ventilation ⭐ Mandatory (an inlet pipe going down, an extract pipe going up). Without it — rot and CO2
Light ⭐ Darkness (potatoes in the light turn green and accumulate solanine — poisonous)
Rodents Mesh over the vents, metal containers
Depth 2–3 m for a stable temperature

⚠️ The hazard of a cellar: in a closed cellar CO2 (heavier than air) can accumulate as vegetables rot, and in silage pits and cesspits there is hydrogen sulphide and methane as well.

RULES FOR ENTERING ANY BELOW-GROUND SPACE
  1. VENTILATE FIRST: open the hatch, lower and raise a bucket or sack
     several times (it works like a piston), for 10–15 minutes
  2. ⚠️ Testing with a candle on a string (it goes out = do not go down) is A GUIDE,
     NOT a guarantee:
       ⛔ it does NOT detect hydrogen sulphide;
       ⛔ where METHANE is present, a naked flame will cause an EXPLOSION.
     So in silage pits, cesspits and sewers a candle
     must NOT BE USED AT ALL
  3. Go down ONLY on a rope, tied on, with
     two people above capable of hauling you out
  4. ⛔ NEVER go down to help someone who has collapsed without a safety line —
     THIS IS THE LEADING CAUSE OF MULTIPLE DEATHS IN PITS AND WELLS

People die in cellars, wells and silage pits regularly — and most often it is the ones who climbed in to rescue somebody.

Storage without a cellar

Method What for
A clamp (a heap on the ground covered with straw and earth) Potatoes, root crops, cabbage
A trench with straw The same
Boxes of sand in a cool room Carrots, beetroot
Hanging in nets Onions, garlic, pumpkins
An ice house (a pit filled with snow and sawdust) Summer cooling
Evaporative cooler (a clay pot inside a pot with wet sand between) ⭐ Vegetables; it lowers the temperature by 10–15 °C in a dry climate

26.6. ⛔ BOTULISM — A SEPARATE WARNING

Clostridium botulinum is a bacterium whose spores are everywhere in the soil. In an oxygen-free environment (a sealed jar), at low acidity (pH above 4.6), at room temperature, it produces the most powerful natural poison known.

The facts

  • The spores survive boiling at 100 °C. They are killed only by 116–121 °C, achievable solely in a pressure canner/pressure cooker.
  • The toxin is destroyed by boiling (10 minutes at 100 °C), but it is dangerous to rely on that.
  • Botulism does not change the taste, smell or appearance of the food.
  • Mortality without antitoxin and mechanical ventilation is very high.
  • CDC: home-canned vegetables are the most frequent cause of botulism outbreaks.

Canning rules (USDA / NCHFP)

Product pH Method
Acid foods (fruit, berries, tomatoes with added acid, cucumbers pickled in vinegar) below 4.6 ✅ Boiling water bath (5–85 minutes depending on the product)
Low-acid foods (⭐ all vegetables, meat, fish, poultry, mushrooms, sweetcorn, beans, garden peas, potatoes, soups) above 4.6 ONLY a pressure canner at 10–15 psi, 116–121 °C. A water bath DOES NOT PROTECT YOU

Confidence: high — this is the unambiguous position of the USDA, NCHFP and CDC.

⛔ Never

⛔ Do not
Can vegetables, mushrooms, meat or fish in sealed jars after simple boiling
Eat from a bulging jar or tin
Eat from a jar that "hissed" on opening in a way that is not simple carbonation
"Just taste a little" as a test
Keep foil-baked potatoes or garlic in oil at room temperature
Give honey to children under 1 (⚠️ C. botulinum spores, infant botulism)
Preserve in oil without acidification

✅ Safe alternatives without a pressure canner

  • Drying — ✅ completely safe as regards botulism (no water).
  • Fermenting — ✅ safe (the pH falls below 4.6).
  • Pickling in vinegar — ✅ safe at sufficient acidity (vinegar at least 5 %, proportions per a tested recipe).
  • Salting at high salt concentration — ✅ relatively safe.
  • Freezing — ✅ safe.
  • Cold storage in a cellar — ✅ safe.

Symptoms of botulism

After 12–36 hours (sometimes up to 10 days): double vision, drooping eyelids, slurred speech, difficulty swallowing, dry mouth, descending symmetrical weakness, then respiratory paralysis. ⛔ Without mechanical ventilation — death. In a world without hospitals it is almost impossible to save the patient. The only defence is prevention.


STAGE 27. CLOTHING AND TEXTILES

27.1. The layering principle

Layer Task ✅ Material ⛔ Material
Base (against the skin) Moving moisture away from the skin Wool (merino), polypropylene, polyester Cotton — it soaks up water and will not dry; in the cold it kills
Mid Thermal insulation Fleece, wool, down (⚠️ useless when wet), synthetic insulation
Outer Wind, water, abrasion Membrane, dense synthetics, canvas, rain shell

Rule: regulate your warmth by taking layers off and putting them on, not by putting up with it. Sweating now = freezing later.

27.2. Footwear

Footwear is the most critical item of clothing. Without serviceable boots you lose mobility, and with it everything else.

Requirement Why
Thick, stiff sole Broken glass, nails, debris
High ankle, ankle support Rubble, uneven ground
Waterproofing Wet feet → trench foot, frostbite
Two pairs of footwear One pair dries while the other works
A stock of (wool) socks, 5+ pairs Dry socks matter more than a fashionable jacket
Spare insoles Comfort, dryness
Repair kit: awl, waxed thread, glue, a piece of leather/rubber Repairs

Foot care

DAILY:
  □ Wash them or wipe them
  □ ⭐ DRY THEM THOROUGHLY (especially between the toes)
  □ Change into dry socks
  □ Inspect for rubbing, blisters, cracks, fungal infection
  □ Trim the nails

A BLISTER:
  • Do not tear the skin off
  • Pierce it at the edge with a sterile needle, let the fluid out, leave the skin
  • Cover with a plaster, then protect against further rubbing

⛔ TRENCH FOOT (from prolonged exposure to wet and cold):
  Pallor, numbness, then pain, swelling, necrosis.
  Prevention: dry socks, drying out, movement.
  It has put entire armies out of action.

27.3. Clothing repair

Skill Tools
Sewing on a button Needle, thread
Darning a hole Needle, thread, a darning mushroom/light bulb as a form
Patching Fabric, needle, thread (or an iron-on patch + iron)
Replacing a zip Needle, thread, patience
Taking in / letting out Scissors, needle
Shoe repair Awl, waxed thread, cobbler's wax, glue, rubber
Felting/knitting Needles, crochet hook, wool

Stock: needles of various sizes (including heavy ones for canvas and leather), strong thread, waxed thread, awl, scissors, thimble, buttons, zips, pieces of fabric, patches, elastic, laces.

27.4. Protection against the elements

Condition Clothing
Sun / heat ⭐ Loose light-coloured clothing with long sleeves (the paradox: a covered body cools better in the desert), a broad-brimmed hat, a neck cloth, sunglasses. ⚠️ Sunburn → dehydration and infection
Rain Rain shell/poncho, waterproof footwear, ⭐ a dry bag inside the rucksack
Wind A windproof outer layer, face protection (mask, scarf)
Cold Layers, a hat (⭐ a substantial share of heat is lost through an uncovered head), mittens (warmer than gloves), a neck tube, ⭐ dryness matters more than thickness
Extreme cold Layering, fur/down clothing, face protection, ⭐ avoid sweating, change socks and insoles often, felt boots/mukluks
Dust / fallout Smooth, tightly woven synthetics (dust brushes off easily), hood, respirator, goggles, gloves, overshoes
Working with contamination A disposable coverall or a rain cape over the top, removed at the boundary of the zone

27.5. Textiles in the long term

Resource Source
Wool Sheep, goats. ⭐ It keeps you warm when wet and is antibacterial
Flax, hemp Fibre plants. They need retting, scutching and combing
Cotton Warm climates
Leather Animal hides. Requires tanning (with oak/willow bark, alum, brains)
Fur Hides. The best insulator in the cold
Synthetics from stores ⭐ A finite resource. Look after it and repair it
Nettle Historically used for fibre

Practical conclusion: manufactured clothing from warehouses is a resource that will last years. Collect it and store it dry and protected from moths (lavender, wormwood, cedar, sealed bags). Learn to repair before the last of it tears.


STAGE 28. WEATHER AND CLIMATE

28.1. Overall strategy

Climate Main threat Main priority
Desert / arid Dehydration, heat, cold at night ⭐ Water, shade, reduced activity by day
Hot and humid (tropics) Heat stroke, infection, mould, insects ⭐ Water, sanitation, nets, ventilation
Temperate Seasonality: everything, but in turn ⭐ Winter stores, planning
Wet Getting soaked, hypothermia, rot, mould ⭐ Dryness, waterproofing
Snowy / cold Hypothermia, calorie and fuel consumption ⭐ Warmth, fuel, calories
Extreme cold Frostbite, hypothermia, inability to obtain water ⭐ Fuel, shelter, layers, melting snow

28.2. Desert and heat

RULES
  □ Move at NIGHT or in the early morning/evening, rest in the shade during the day
  □ 6–12 l of water a day when active. ⛔ Do NOT ration water
    "for later" — drink when you want to. Water in your stomach does more good
    than water in your flask
  □ Clothing: ⭐ COVERING, light-coloured, loose (it reduces the loss of sweat
    to evaporation and shields you from the sun)
  □ Head and neck covered at all times
  □ ⛔ Do not lie on baking sand/rock — it is 15–25 °C hotter than the air.
    Raising yourself 30 cm already helps enormously
  □ Shade: any at all. A tarpaulin, a rock, a bush, a pit under a sheet
  □ Salt: heavy sweating needs electrolytes, or hyponatraemia follows
  □ It can be cold at night — carry a warm layer
  □ Water sources: dry riverbeds (dig on the outside of a bend),
    the foot of cliffs, green vegetation, dew on plastic sheeting,
    a solar still

28.3. Temperate climate

The main feature is seasonality, which demands planning.

Season Tasks
Spring Planting, repairs, laying in firewood for the following winter, animals' young, gathering wild plants
Summer Tending the crops, making hay, drying and preserving, building, roof repairs
Autumn The critical season: harvest, putting food into store, laying in fuel, insulating, slaughtering surplus animals, repairing clothing and footwear
Winter Living off the stores, repairing tools, teaching, planning, hunting, making things

Rule: "Winter begins in summer." Whatever is not laid in by October will not be laid in at all.

28.4. Rain and humidity

Problem Solution
Getting soaked Rain shell, tarpaulin, a change of clothes, drying out
Being unable to light a fire ⭐ A stock of dry tinder in a sealed bag; birch bark, resinous splinters, petroleum jelly on cotton wool, solid fuel tablets
Stores rotting Raise them off the ground, ventilation, waterproofing
Mould in the dwelling Ventilation, heating, burst airing
Flooding Bunds, drainage ditches, do not settle in hollows and floodplains
Mud, inability to move Plan around the weather

Rainwater collection is the great advantage of a wet climate. A 50 m² roof in 10 mm of rain yields about 500 litres.

28.5. Snow and cold

Rules for surviving cold

THE COLD PRINCIPLE (memorise it):
  C — Clean       Clothing must be CLEAN (dirt reduces insulation)
  O — Overheating Avoid OVERHEATING and sweating (sweat = death)
  L — Layers      LAYERS, loose, adjustable
  D — Dry         DRYNESS is everything

IN PRACTICE
  □ Head, neck, hands and feet covered
  □ Do not sleep on the ground/snow — insulate underneath (spruce boughs, a mat, cardboard, straw)
  □ Eat more: in the cold you burn 4000–5000 kcal/day; ⭐ fats and carbohydrates
  □ ⭐ Drink: cold dehydrates you as badly as heat does (dry air, respiration,
    no sensation of thirst)
  □ ⛔ Do NOT eat snow — it chills and dehydrates you. Melt it first
  □ Keep moving, but without sweating
  □ ⛔ Alcohol — it dilates the blood vessels and speeds heat loss. It kills
  □ Check each other for white patches on the face (frostbite)

Frostbite

Degree Signs Action
Frostnip / I Whitening, numbness, tingling Warm with body heat (hands into the armpits, face in the palms). It recovers
II Blisters with clear fluid Warm in water at 37–39 °C for 20–30 minutes. Do not rub
III–IV Dark blisters, black skin, loss of sensation, tissue hard to the touch ⛔ Severe injury. Warm, sterile dry dressing, ⛔ do not rub, do not burst blisters. Amputation is possible

Never: rub with snow (micro-trauma + more cooling), rub at all, warm by an open flame (there is no sensation → burns), thaw if there is any risk of refreezing (a second freeze–thaw cycle destroys the tissue far more).

Melting snow

  • ⚠️ Snow is a poor source of water by volume: 10 volumes of loose snow give roughly 1 volume of water.
  • ⭐ Add snow to the pan in portions, adding to water already melted (otherwise the pan will burn through).
  • ⚠️ Remove the top 10–20 cm — fallout and dirt settle there.
  • Disinfect it: meltwater is not sterile.

28.6. Watching the weather without instruments

Sign Forecast
Falling atmospheric pressure (a barometer, or aching joints, headache) Weather worsening
Cirrus clouds ("mares' tails") → then layered cloud Rain in 12–36 hours
Cumulonimbus ("anvil") clouds A thunderstorm within hours
Red sky in the evening Usually good weather tomorrow (in temperate latitudes with westerly flow)
Red sky in the morning Worsening
A halo around the sun/moon Worsening within 24 hours
Smoke lying low along the ground Low pressure, worsening
Smoke rising vertically High pressure, good weather
Dew in the morning Usually a clear day
No dew on a warm night Rain possible
Swallows/swifts flying low Low pressure (the insects are lower), rain possible
A sudden intensification of smells (marsh, flowers) Rising humidity, rain
Strong twinkling of the stars Turbulence, a change of weather

Confidence: medium — folk signs work statistically but are unreliable in any single case. ⭐ Keep a weather log (STAGE 37): after a year of your own observations you will forecast better than any of these signs.

A homemade barometer

A jar sealed with a membrane (from a balloon), with a straw glued on as a pointer. Rising pressure pushes the membrane inwards and the pointer rises; falling pressure lowers it. Mark the position daily.

⚠️ On nuclear winter: Confidence: low. Climate models of the consequences of a large-scale nuclear war disagree — from moderate cooling over 1–3 years to a significant multi-year reduction in temperature and crop yields. The spread comes from different assumptions about the quantity of soot from urban fires and how high it is lofted. Practical conclusion: prepare for the possibility of abnormally cold and short growing seasons over several years: early-maturing varieties, greenhouses, stores, cold-tolerant crops (potatoes, turnips, cabbage, barley, rye).


PART V. HAZARDOUS SITES

STAGE 29. FIRES

29.1. Why fires are a threat comparable to radiation

After a nuclear detonation fires start on a mass scale: * from thermal radiation (igniting curtains, paper, rubbish and dry vegetation at considerable distances); * from ruptured gas mains; * from damaged electrical wiring and short circuits; * from overturned stoves, candles and burners; * from spilled fuel.

In dense urban building, separate seats of fire can merge into a conflagration or a firestorm — a self-sustaining mass that creates its own draught with wind speeds of tens of metres per second and temperatures at which survival is impossible even in a basement.

Confidence: high — firestorms are documented at Hamburg, Dresden, Tokyo and Hiroshima.

29.2. Smoke and carbon monoxide

Smoke component Hazard
Carbon monoxide (CO) ⛔ The leading cause of death in fires. See STAGE 17
Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) ⛔ Released when plastics, polyurethane (furniture, mattresses) and wool burn. Extremely toxic
Hydrogen fluoride (HF) ⛔ Burning fluoropolymers and lithium batteries
Hydrogen chloride (HCl) ⛔ Burning PVC (windows, pipes, insulation)
Acrolein, aldehydes Airway irritation, pulmonary oedema
Soot and particulates Mechanical lung damage, airway burns
Hot air Airway burn → swelling → suffocation within minutes
Lack of oxygen Below 15 % — loss of consciousness

⚠️ An ordinary FFP2/FFP3 respirator does NOT protect against carbon monoxide or other gases. It stops particles only. Against CO you need a self-contained set or a special filter (a CO filter, hopcalite).

29.3. What to do in a building fire

1. ALERT everyone in the building
2. ASSESS: can it be put out with an extinguisher within 30 seconds?
   • Yes (a small seat of fire, an extinguisher to hand, an escape route) → fight it
   • No → get out
3. GETTING OUT:
   □ Shut doors behind you (a door holds fire back for minutes to tens of minutes)
   □ Breathe through a damp cloth
   □ Move crouched, 30–60 cm above the floor: smoke, heat and CO
     rise, and the air is cleaner and cooler low down
   ⚠️ Exception: in a CHEMICAL release (chlorine, propane, hydrogen sulphide)
     heavy gases pool along the floor — there you must go HIGHER instead
   □ ⛔ Do not use the lift
   □ Before opening a door, touch it with the BACK of your hand.
     Hot → do not open it, find another way
   □ Follow the wall, counting doors (you can see nothing in smoke)
4. IF THE EXIT IS CUT OFF:
   □ A room with a window, as far from the fire as possible
   □ Shut the door, plug the gaps with wet cloth
   □ Open the window partly (do not break it — you cannot close it again if smoke comes from outside)
   □ Signal: cloth, torch, shouting, whistle
   □ Lie on the floor by the window
5. IF YOUR CLOTHING CATCHES FIRE:
   ⛔ DO NOT RUN. STOP — DROP — ROLL.
   Or smother it with heavy cloth

What must not be fought with water

⛔ Do not use water on The right way
Burning oil/fat in a pan Cover with a lid/wet towel, turn off the heat. ⛔ Water causes an explosive eruption of burning fat
Live electrics Isolate the power; dry powder or CO2 extinguisher
Burning petrol/solvent Dry powder extinguisher, sand, foam. Water spreads the burning liquid
Burning metals (magnesium, lithium metal) Dry sand, special class D powders
Lithium-ion batteries ⚠️ Plenty of water cools them (better than nothing), but fully extinguishing them is hard. ⭐ Carry it outside and let it burn out

29.4. Forest and wildland fires

Signs of one approaching

  • The smell of smoke, reduced visibility.
  • Ash falling from the sky.
  • A glow at night, a column of smoke by day.
  • Mass flight of animals and birds.
  • A sharp wind blowing towards the fire (the fire draws in air).

How a fire behaves

Factor Effect
Wind ⭐ The main factor. A fire travels many times faster downwind
Slope ⭐ A fire spreads much faster uphill (the flame preheats the fuel above it). ⛔ Never run uphill to escape
Vegetation type Conifers and dry grass burn explosively; broadleaf woodland more slowly
Humidity and time of day At night and in high humidity the intensity falls

What to do

EVACUATION is the best option. Decide EARLY, not when the fire is in sight

DIRECTION OF ESCAPE:
  ✅ Perpendicular to the direction of spread (sideways from the front)
  ✅ Downhill
  ✅ Towards open ground: fields, ploughland, roads, rivers, lakes,
     burnt ground (already burnt areas — ⭐ there is nothing left to burn)
  ⛔ NEVER: uphill, into narrow gullies and canyons
     (they act as chimneys), downwind ahead of the front

IF YOU CANNOT GET AWAY:
  □ Find bare mineral ground: a ploughed field, a rocky area,
    a large body of water, a wide road
  □ Water: get into it, breathe through wet cloth
    ⚠️ No deeper than you can stand; water at the edge can heat up
    in a very intense fire
  □ Burnt ground: move onto land that has already burned
  □ Clear combustible material away from yourself over the largest area you can
  □ Lie in a hollow, cover yourself with something non-flammable (earth, a wool blanket,
    wet cloth), face down, breathe through cloth in the layer near the ground
  □ A car: ⚠️ poor, but better than open ground. Close the windows,
    switch off the ventilation, lie below window level, cover yourself. Switch
    the engine off. The fuel tank rarely explodes, contrary to popular belief

PROTECTING A HOUSE:
  □ Clear combustible material for 10–30 m around (dry grass, firewood, rubbish, shrubs)
  □ Close all windows, doors and ventilation openings
  □ Take the curtains away from the windows
  □ Fill containers with water, wet the walls and roof
  □ Move gas cylinders well away
  □ Do not wet things down until the last moment — the water will evaporate

29.5. Chemical fires

Do not fight, and do not approach, a fire at a site with unknown chemicals.

Sign Action
Unusual smoke colour (yellow, green, orange, acrid white) ⛔ Leave upwind, do not breathe it
A sharp smell (chlorine, ammonia, acid) ⛔ Leave perpendicular to the wind, and uphill for heavy gases
Explosions, containers flying ⛔ Keep hundreds of metres away
Burning tanks ⛔ Risk of BLEVE (boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion) — fragments thrown hundreds of metres
Hazardous goods placards on tanks/containers Keep well away; see STAGE 30

Direction of escape from a chemical cloud: * Perpendicular to the wind, then upwind. * Heavy gases (chlorine, propane, hydrogen sulphide) lie low → go uphill, to upper floors. * Light gases (ammonia) rise → go downwards, though it is usually simpler to move sideways out of the cloud.


STAGE 30. CHEMICAL HAZARDS

THE GOVERNING PRINCIPLE: treat any unknown substance as potentially lethal.

30.1. Rules for handling the unknown

⛔ DO NOT SMELL IT (one breath can kill: hydrogen sulphide, phosgene, HCN)
⛔ DO NOT TASTE IT
⛔ DO NOT TOUCH it with bare hands
⛔ DO NOT MIX it with other substances
⛔ DO NOT DECANT it into food containers
⛔ DO NOT SET FIRE to it or heat it
⛔ DO NOT OPEN bulging, deformed or leaking containers
⛔ DO NOT STORE it near food, water or people

✅ GO AROUND IT
✅ MARK it on the map
✅ RECORD it in the log
✅ WARN the others

30.2. Typical sources of chemical hazard

Site What may be there Hazard
Drums (200 l) on industrial premises Solvents, acids, alkalis, fuel, oils, pesticides Burns, poisoning, fire. ⚠️ The labels are often rubbed off
Tankers (road, rail) Ammonia, chlorine, acids, liquefied gas, fuel, oxidisers ⛔ Mass poisoning if they lose containment
Gas cylinders Propane, acetylene, oxygen, argon, nitrogen, CO2, chlorine, ammonia ⛔ Explosion, asphyxiation, poisoning. ⚠️ Acetylene cylinders are extremely dangerous if knocked or heated
Chemical works Everything ⛔ Do not enter
Fuel depots, filling stations Petrol, diesel, kerosene ⛔ Vapour explosion
Water treatment works, swimming pools Chlorine in cylinders, hypochlorite, acids ⛔ A chlorine leak kills for hundreds of metres
Battery shops, stores Sulphuric acid, lead, lithium Burns, hydrogen, lead
Refrigeration plant (shops, ice rinks, meat works) Ammonia Lethal poisoning if it leaks
Agricultural stores Pesticides (organophosphates), ammonium nitrate, anhydrous ammonia ⛔ Lethal poisons; nitrate is explosive in a fire
Building sites, old buildings Asbestos Lung cancer, mesothelioma, decades later
Transformers (old) PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls) in the oil Carcinogen, persistent contamination
Mercury instruments, lamps ⛔ Mercury The vapour is neurotoxic
Electroplating shops Cyanides, chromium, acids ⛔ Cyanides are lethal

30.3. Specific hazards

Chlorine (Cl2)

  • A greenish-yellow gas with the sharp smell of bleach.
  • Heavier than air — it flows along the ground and collects in hollows, basements and pits.
  • Symptoms: burning eyes and throat, coughing, suffocation, pulmonary oedema (which can develop hours later).
  • Action: leave perpendicular to the wind and UPWARDS (to high ground, upper floors).

Ammonia (NH3)

  • A colourless gas with the sharp smell of smelling salts.
  • Lighter than air, but a refrigerated release flows low at first.
  • Symptoms: burning eyes, nose and throat, airway burns, pulmonary oedema.
  • ⭐ Action: leave perpendicular to the wind; a damp cloth over the face (ammonia is water-soluble) is a temporary measure.

Hydrogen sulphide (H2S)

  • Smells of rotten eggs at low concentration. ⛔ At high concentration it paralyses the sense of smell — the smell disappears, and that is a lethally dangerous sign.
  • Heavier than air; it collects in basements, sewers, silage pits and cesspits.
  • ⛔ It kills within minutes.
  • Never go down into wells, pits, sewers or cellars without testing first.

Carbon monoxide (CO)

See STAGE 17.

Asbestos

  • A fibrous mineral found in old building materials (cement sheet, pipe lagging, fire protection, ceiling tiles).
  • It is dangerous only as dust, when the material is broken up.
  • ⚠️ After a detonation, destroyed buildings = a mass release of asbestos dust.
  • Protection: FFP3 respirator, wetting the material before working, do not saw or break it dry.
  • The consequences (mesothelioma, asbestosis) appear after 20–40 years. In survival conditions this is not a first-order threat, but do not neglect the respirator.

Lead

  • Old paint (pre-1980s), batteries, solder, pipes, shooting ranges, ammunition.
  • ⚠️ Particularly dangerous to children (impaired nervous system development).
  • Routes: dust from old paint, fumes while melting it, water from lead pipes.
  • Do not melt lead indoors. Wash your hands. Do not let children play where there is old flaking paint.

Mercury

  • Thermometers, fluorescent lamps, manometers, barometers, some switches.
  • Mercury vapour is extremely toxic and has no smell.
  • If spilled: ventilate, collect the beads with a syringe or damp paper into a sealed jar of water, ⛔ do not vacuum (it aerosolises it), ⛔ do not sweep with a brush, cover any residue with sulphur or chalk. Dispose of it well away.

Acids and alkalis

  • Burns to skin and eyes. Alkali is more dangerous to the eyes than acid (it penetrates deeper).
  • First aid: copious irrigation with water for 15–20 minutes (alkali — 30–60 minutes).
  • ⛔ Do not neutralise acid with alkali or vice versa on skin — the reaction gives off heat.
  • ⛔ Do not induce vomiting if swallowed — it burns the oesophagus a second time.

30.4. Hazard symbols you need to know

The GHS diamond (international system)

Pictogram Meaning
Flame Flammable
Flame over a circle Oxidiser (intensifies fire)
Exploding bomb Explosive
Skull and crossbones ⛔ Acutely toxic
Exclamation mark Irritant, harmful
Corrosion (a drop eating into a hand/material) Corrosive
A human silhouette with a "star" in the chest Health hazard (carcinogen, mutagen, reproductive toxicant)
Gas cylinder Gas under pressure
Fish and tree Hazardous to the environment

The NFPA 704 diamond (on buildings and containers, USA)

Four quadrants, numbers 0–4 (0 = no hazard, 4 = maximum): * Blue (left) — health hazard. * Red (top) — flammability. * Yellow (right) — chemical instability/reactivity. * White (bottom) — special notices: (do not use water), OX (oxidiser), SA (simple asphyxiant gas).

Practical rule: if the blue or red quadrant shows a 3 or a 4, do not go near it.

Hazardous goods plates (ADR/UN, on transport)

An orange plate with two numbers: * the upper one is the hazard code (for example 33 — highly flammable liquid; 268 — toxic corrosive gas); * the lower one is the substance's UN number (for example 1017 — chlorine, 1005 — ammonia, 1203 — petrol).

Write the key numbers down on paper: 1017 chlorine, 1005 ammonia, 1203 petrol, 1202 diesel, 1075 liquefied gas, 1830 sulphuric acid, 1428 sodium.

⚠️ The letter X before the hazard code means: ⛔ the substance reacts violently with water. Do not use water on it.

30.5. What to do after chemical exposure

1. GET AWAY from the source — perpendicular to the wind, then upwind
   Heavy gas → UPHILL and to upper floors
   Light gas → usually simplest to move sideways
2. REMOVE contaminated clothing (cut it off, not over the head)
3. IRRIGATE copiously with water: skin 15 minutes, eyes 15–20 minutes
   (alkali — longer, 30–60 minutes)
4. ⛔ DO NOT neutralise chemically
5. Fresh air, rest, a half-sitting position if breathing is difficult
6. ⚠️ OBSERVATION: pulmonary oedema from many gases (phosgene, chlorine, nitrogen oxides)
   develops 6–24 hours after an apparent improvement.
   The casualty must LIE DOWN and not exert themselves for 24 hours
7. If swallowed: ⛔ DO NOT induce vomiting with acids, alkalis,
   petroleum products or foaming substances. Rinse the mouth, give water
   in small sips (if there is no laryngeal swelling)

STAGE 31. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS AND RADIATION SOURCES

31.1. ⭐ A reactor is NOT a bomb

Nuclear weapon Nuclear reactor
Fuel Highly enriched uranium (>90 % U-235) or weapons-grade plutonium Low-enriched uranium (3–5 % U-235)
Can it explode like a bomb Yes, that is its purpose NO. Physically impossible — the enrichment is insufficient
What happens in an accident Core meltdown, a steam or hydrogen explosion (chemical, not nuclear), structural destruction, release of radioactive material
Scale of release A single event, tens of kg of fissile material ⚠️ It can be larger in mass of long-lived nuclides than a single detonation, and can last days to weeks
Composition of the release Many short-lived nuclides, rapid decay ⚠️ More long-lived nuclides (Cs-137, Sr-90), slow decay

Confidence: high

⚠️ The most important practical consequence

The 7–10 rule does NOT apply to a release from a nuclear power plant.

A release from a reactor contains substantially more long-lived nuclides, so the dose rate falls far more slowly than after a nuclear detonation. The calculation "in two days it will be 100 times less" does not work here and is dangerous.

Moreover, a release from a damaged reactor can continue for days and weeks, not minutes.

31.2. Damaged nuclear power plants in wartime

Why they are dangerous even without a direct strike

  1. Loss of off-site power → the cooling pumps fail.
  2. Failure of the backup diesel generators (no fuel, no maintenance) → "station blackout".
  3. Decay heat: even after shutdown a reactor gives off heat (in the first minutes, a few per cent of rated power, declining over time). Without cooling the fuel overheats and melts within hours to a day.
  4. Spent fuel pools — ⚠️ often outside containment, requiring constant cooling and water make-up. Their draining is a serious release scenario.
  5. Absence of staff.

Confidence: high — this is the mechanism of the Fukushima accidents.

What this means for you

Situation Action
You live within 30 km of a nuclear plant Plan an evacuation in advance. Know your direction of departure (perpendicular to the prevailing winds). Keep KI
30–100 km ⚠️ Restrictions on food and water are possible, plus sheltering during a release. KI is useful
Over 100 km ⚠️ Food-chain contamination is possible over hundreds of kilometres (Chernobyl produced "spots" 500+ km away). Monitor food
A release has already happened Shelter, seal up, KI (for radioiodine), do not drink local water or milk, do not eat local greens, listen to the radio

⚠️ The difference from a nuclear detonation: after a reactor accident, "sitting it out for 24 hours" is not enough. Evacuation for a long period or permanently may be required.

31.3. Other radiation sources

Medical sources

Where What Hazard
Radiotherapy departments Co-60 and Cs-137 sources of enormous activity (teletherapy) ⛔ A lethal dose within minutes close to an unshielded source
Brachytherapy Ir-192, I-125, Pd-103 — small "seeds" and capsules ⛔ Dangerous on contact; easily overlooked
Nuclear medicine departments Tc-99m, I-131, F-18 Moderate hazard, short half-lives
X-ray rooms ⚠️ X-ray machines are not radioactive — they are dangerous only when energised. With no electricity they are safe ✅ Safe to enter
Blood irradiators Cs-137 ⛔ Dangerous

⚠️ A real precedent: the Goiânia accident (Brazil, 1987) — scavengers broke open an abandoned medical Cs-137 source; 4 people died and the contamination required buildings to be demolished.

Industrial sources

Where What
Radiographic flaw detectors (pipe welding, steelwork) ⛔ High-activity Ir-192, Co-60 in portable "cameras"
Level and density gauges on tanks and pipelines Cs-137, Am-241
Well-logging equipment (oil and gas exploration) Cs-137, Am-241/Be (a neutron source!)
Road density gauges Cs-137, Am-241/Be
Smoke detectors (old ionisation type) Am-241 — ⚠️ very low activity, minimal hazard
Sterilisation plants (food irradiators) ⛔ Co-60 of enormous activity
Thickness gauges in rolling mills and paper mills Sr-90, Kr-85
Scrap metal ⚠️ There are known cases of sources ending up in scrap and being melted down

Research sources

Where What
University physics, chemistry and biology laboratories Check sources, labelled compounds, ⚠️ sometimes serious sources
Research reactors ⛔ Like a power plant, but smaller
Accelerators ⚠️ Induced activity in the structures; safe when unpowered
Radioactive waste stores ⛔ Dangerous

31.4. Radiation hazard symbols

1. The trefoil — the classic symbol

Three sectors around a central circle. Usually black on yellow (international) or red/magenta on yellow (USA).

Meaning: ionising radiation is, or may be, present here.

⚠️ This symbol does not tell you how dangerous it is. It appears on a harmless check source and on a lethal one alike.

2. The supplementary ISO 21482 symbol (since 2007)

The image: radiation waves + a skull and crossbones + a person running towards an arrow, in a red triangle.

Meaning:"DANGER. RUN AWAY. DO NOT TOUCH."

It is applied to IAEA category 1, 2 and 3 sources — those capable of killing or seriously injuring. It is placed on the source itself or under the device's housing, so that it becomes visible when someone tries to dismantle it.

If you see this symbol — leave at once and do not come back.

Confidence: high — ISO 21482:2007, developed by the IAEA and ISO.

3. The "Radioactive material" transport label

A yellow-and-white diamond with a trefoil, categories I-WHITE, II-YELLOW, III-YELLOW (in ascending order of surface radiation level), UN numbers 2910–3336 and others.

4. Other things that give a source away

Sign Comment
A metal container disproportionately heavy for its size ⚠️ Lead or depleted-uranium shielding. The classic sign
A lead or tungsten cylinder with a "window" and a rotating mechanism ⛔ A radiography source
Markings: RADIOACTIVE, RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL, Ir-192, Co-60, Cs-137, Sr-90, Am-241
A bluish glow in the dark ⚠️ Extremely high activity (Cherenkov radiation or ionisation of the air). ⛔ Lethally dangerous. Back away immediately
An object that is warm with no power source ⛔ Very high activity
A powder or salt glowing blue (as at Goiânia) ⛔ Lethal

31.5. Rules on finding a source

1. ⛔ DO NOT TOUCH IT, PICK IT UP, OPEN IT OR TAKE IT APART
2. MOVE AWAY immediately. Every metre of distance cuts the dose substantially
   (for a point source the intensity falls as the square of the distance:
   twice as far = four times weaker)
3. MARK the place on the map and physically (a sign, a barrier,
   a pile of stones), so that others do not approach
4. RECORD in the log: place, description, markings, instrument readings
5. WARN everyone in the settlement
6. If someone has already handled it — decontamination (STAGE 9), record
   the time and circumstances, watch for symptoms
7. ⛔ DO NOT send it for scrap, do not melt it down, do not use
   the container for storage

⚠️ A sign of dangerous contact: a local burn/reddening on the hand or over a pocket, appearing hours or days later with no visible cause. This is the classic symptom of handling a source.

31.6. The three rules of radiation protection

TIME     — minimise the time spent near a source
DISTANCE — maximise the distance (for a point source the inverse square:
           twice as far = four times weaker)
SHIELDING — maximum mass between you and the source

Of the three, distance is the cheapest and the most effective. Simply move away.


PART VI. REBUILDING TECHNOLOGY

STAGE 32. THE LIBRARY OF KNOWLEDGE

Knowledge is the only resource that is not consumed by being used and that can be passed to the next generation.

32.1. Ranking by importance

Rank Field Why What to look for specifically
1 First aid and emergency medicine It saves lives immediately The Red Cross/Red Crescent manual, a first-aid textbook, an emergency handbook
2 Medicine without a doctor Infections, childbirth, wounds, chronic illness Where There Is No Doctor (Hesperian) — the best book in its class, translated into dozens of languages; Where Women Have No Doctor; Where There Is No Dentist
3 Sanitation and water supply Infections kill more people than anything else WHO/Sphere WASH guidance; WEDC technical notes
4 Pharmacology and a drug reference Dosages, indications, interactions A national formulary, a medicines handbook, ⭐ the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines
5 Agriculture and horticulture for your zone Hunger within a year A regional vegetable-growing handbook, a calendar, seed saving
6 Food storage and processing Saving the harvest ⭐ USDA Complete Guide to Home Canning; books on drying, fermenting, cellars
7 Anatomy and physiology The basis of everything medical An anatomical atlas, a physiology textbook
8 Botany: an identification guide for your region Food and poisons ⭐ An illustrated guide with photographs
9 Building and carpentry Housing, repairs A builder's, carpenter's and stove-builder's handbook
10 Mechanics and repair Machinery A fitter's handbook, engine repair manuals, bearings, transmissions
11 Electrical engineering Power An electrician's handbook, wiring calculations, solar systems
12 Electronics Radio, instruments A radio amateur's handbook, circuit design, component data
13 Veterinary medicine Animals = food A handbook of farm animal diseases
14 Plumbing and water supply Water into the house A plumber's handbook, pumps, boreholes
15 Mathematics The basis of every calculation School and reference courses, tables, geometry, trigonometry
16 Physics Understanding the world School and university courses, a handbook
17 Chemistry Materials, soap, processing School and university courses, a handbook, the technology of soap/glass/acids
18 Metallurgy and metalworking Tools A handbook of steels, heat treatment, forging, casting, welding
19 Radio communications Communications A radio amateur's handbook (the ARRL Handbook or a national equivalent), antennas
20 Geography and cartography Orientation, planning Atlases, topographic maps, a surveying handbook
21 Radiobiology and radiation protection Specific to this scenario Textbooks, IAEA/CDC materials
22 Pedagogy and school textbooks ⭐ The next generation Textbooks for every school year and subject
23 The history of technology How things were made before electricity Encyclopaedias of crafts, "how it works" books
24 Psychology and trauma work The group's resilience Psychological first aid guidance (WHO)

32.2. A specific list of "10 books if you can only take 10"

  1. Where There Is No Doctor (Hesperian) — medicine without a doctor.
  2. A first-aid textbook (Red Cross or a national one).
  3. A medicines handbook with dosages.
  4. An illustrated guide to the plants and fungi of your region.
  5. A handbook of vegetable and field crops for your climate zone.
  6. USDA Complete Guide to Home Canning (or a national equivalent on preserving).
  7. An electrician's / off-grid power systems handbook.
  8. A fitter-mechanic's handbook.
  9. A builder's / carpenter's / stove-builder's handbook.
  10. Topographic maps of your region.

32.3. Storage format

Format Pros Cons Recommendation
Paper ⭐ Needs no power, durable, unaffected by EMP, readable by candlelight Bulk, weight, water, fire ⭐⭐⭐ For 10–50 key books
E-readers / tablet Thousands of books Battery, fragility ⭐⭐ With solar charging
USB sticks/SD cards Enormous capacity Needs a computer ⭐⭐ 2–3 copies in different places
External HDD/SSD Terabytes Fragile, needs a computer
Kiwix / ZIM archives ⭐ An offline copy of Wikipedia, Wikibooks, medical databases, WikiHow Needs a computer ⭐⭐⭐ Install it in advance
Microfilm / microfiche Hundreds of years of storage Needs a reader (a simple optical one will do) ⭐ Exotic, but it works

A practical plan: 1. Download a Kiwix offline archive (a full Wikipedia runs to roughly 20–100 GB depending on the edition; medical collections are a few GB). 2. Assemble a PDF library (medicine, agriculture, engineering). 3. Make three copies: phone, a USB stick at home, a USB stick away from home. 4. Print the 10 key books, or at least the 100 most important pages. 5. Put the paper copy in a sealed bag.

32.4. Where to look for books after the catastrophe

Place What
Libraries (public, university, school) ⭐⭐⭐ Everything
Bookshops Recent editions
Universities and technical colleges Textbooks, course notes, laboratory manuals
Schools ⭐ Textbooks for the next generation
Hospitals and nursing schools Medical literature
Factories and works ⭐ Process sheets, operating instructions, drawings, handbooks
The homes of specialists (doctors, engineers, agronomists) Professional libraries
Museums, archives Old technology
Garages and workshops Repair manuals

⚠️ Paper is vulnerable to damp and fire. Dry out the books you find, store them dry, and make handwritten copies of the most important pages.

32.5. Passing knowledge on

A book is useless without a person who can read and understand it.

Measure Why
Teach children to read, write and count — a priority from the first year Without it the library dies with you
Apprenticeship: every specialist trains 1–2 people The death of one doctor/electrician must not kill the knowledge
Write down your own experience: what worked and what did not ⭐ Local knowledge (which variety grows here, where the water is, when the frosts come) is written down nowhere
Practical lessons, not just reading Skill ≠ information
Copy critical pages by hand Redundancy
Keep a settlement log See STAGE 37

STAGE 33. THE TECHNOLOGY TREE

The progression runs from the bottom up. Each level requires the one before it. Levels cannot be skipped.

Level 0 — One person and almost nothing

Resources Your own body, objects you find, water, anything edible
Capabilities Find water and shelter, light a fire, stay alive
Critical dependencies ⭐ Knowledge, health, will
Tasks Water → warmth → food → safety
What to look for A water container, a knife, a means of making fire, a blanket, footwear
Timescale Days to weeks
Main risk Being alone. ⭐ Finding other people is a strategic priority

Level 1 — Hand tools

Resources Knife, axe, spade, rope, containers, fire
New capabilities Building shelter, laying in firewood, digging (latrine, cellar, shelter), carrying loads, working wood
Critical dependencies Sharpening (a whetstone), repairing handles, metal
What to add Saw, hammer, pliers, file, bucket, cooking pot
Timescale Weeks

Level 2 — Water and food

Resources Level 1 + seed, containers, disinfection agents, a cellar
New capabilities Reliable clean water; a vegetable plot; storing the harvest; keeping animals; sanitation
Critical dependencies ⭐ Seed (open-pollinated), land, water, climate, an agronomist's knowledge
What to add Hoe, rake, sickle, watering can, barrels, hand mill, salt
Timescale Months to a year
The main barrier The first harvest is the critical point. The stores must last until it comes in

Level 3 — The workshop

Resources Level 2 + workbench, vice, a full hand-tool set, fixings, materials
New capabilities Repairing everything; making tools; joinery; simple metalwork; sewing; tanning leather
Critical dependencies ⭐ Fixings, files, saw blades, glue, lubricant, scrap metal
What to add Hand drill, chisels, plane, hacksaw, cold chisel, clamps, an anvil (even a length of rail)
Timescale Months
The key ⭐ The ability to make tools with tools — the beginning of self-reproduction

Level 4 — Electricity

Resources Level 3 + solar panels / generator / water wheel, batteries, controller, cable, multimeter
New capabilities ⭐ Light in the evenings (it lengthens the productive day); radio communications; charging tools; a water pump; refrigeration; electric welding (given enough power); medical equipment
Critical dependencies Batteries (they degrade in 3–10 years), controllers, cable, fuses, ⭐ a knowledge of electrical engineering
What to add Inverter, chargers, soldering iron, a stock of cable and components
Timescale Months to years
The main barrier ⭐ Batteries. They cannot be made to acceptable quality by hand (except the simplest lead-acid). Stock up and look after them

Level 5 — Metalworking

Resources Level 4 + forge, anvil, hammers, tongs, coal/charcoal, bellows, ⭐ scrap metal
New capabilities ⭐ Forging tools; heat treatment (hardening, tempering); welding; brazing; casting non-ferrous metals (aluminium, bronze, lead); making nails, hinges, knives, ploughshares, horseshoes
Critical dependencies Fuel (charcoal, coal), a blast (bellows or a fan), ⭐ metallurgical knowledge
What you need to know Temperatures (by the colour of the heat), quenching and tempering, case hardening, annealing
Timescale 1–3 years
The key Scrap metal is a colossal resource. A destroyed city contains a century's supply of steel, copper and aluminium. There is no need to mine ore

The colours of heated steel (field pyrometry)

Colour Temperature
Dark brown (barely visible in the dark) ~530 °C
Dark red ~650 °C
Cherry red ~750 °C
Light cherry ~800 °C
Light red ~850 °C
Orange ~900 °C
Dark yellow ~1000 °C
Light yellow ~1100 °C
White ~1250 °C

Confidence: medium — the colours depend on the lighting; judge them in dim light.

Level 6 — Machine tools

Resources Level 5 + lathe, drill press, milling machine (found or restored), electric drive or mechanical line shafting, cutting tools, measuring instruments
New capabilities ⭐ Precision parts; screw threads; bearings (restoration); shafts; repairing pumps and engines; making spare parts; reproducing machine tools
Critical dependencies Electricity or water/wind drive; ⭐ carbide/high-speed steel tooling; callipers and micrometer; lubricant
Timescale 3–10 years
The key ⭐ The lathe is "the mother of machine tools": parts for other machines can be made on it. Finding and preserving a working lathe is a strategic task

Level 7 — Local industry

Resources Level 6 + a permanent energy source (hydro, wind, a steam engine), raw materials, division of labour, a population of 100+
New capabilities Producing cement and lime; brick; glass; paper; soap; textiles; leather; electrical machines; chemicals (acids, alkalis); mechanised transport; piped water; a settlement power grid
Critical dependencies Population and specialisation. One person can do none of this. ⭐ Energy. ⭐ Transport and trade with neighbours
Timescale 10–50 years
The key This is no longer survival but society. See PART VII

33.1. The critical bottlenecks of the whole tree

Bottleneck Why it is critical What to do
Salt Irreplaceable for physiology and for preserving; it cannot be synthesised ⭐ Store it by the tonne; know the nearest salt flats/salt springs/the sea
Metal-cutting tools Files, drill bits, saw blades, lathe tools — impossible to make below level 5–6 ⭐ Stock up, look after them, sharpen them
Batteries Impossible to make to a good standard Look after them, do not discharge them deeply, look for more
Glass Windows, jars, optics, laboratory ware Collect and protect it; melting it requires level 7
Antibiotics Cannot be synthesised by hand Stock up, use strictly on indication
Rubber Tyres, seals, hoses, belts Collect, repair; rubber trees do not grow in temperate latitudes
Lubricants Without lubrication, machinery dies in weeks Stock up; animal and vegetable fat is the fallback
Precision measuring instruments Callipers, micrometer, multimeter, scales, thermometer ⭐ Irreplaceable; look after them
Optics (spectacles!) ⚠️ People with poor eyesight lose their capacity to work Stock 2–3 pairs of spectacles in the right prescription
Open-pollinated seed The basis of food ⭐ See STAGE 24
Literacy Without it everything else dies ⭐ Teach the children

STAGE 34. MECHANICS

The focus is repair and keeping things working, not making weapons.

34.1. Threaded fasteners

Concept What to know
Metric thread The designation M8×1.25: 8 mm diameter, 1.25 mm pitch. The pitch is usually the standard ("coarse") one
Imperial thread (UNC/UNF, BSP) ⚠️ Not interchangeable with metric. Trying to force an "almost right" bolt strips the thread
Right- and left-hand threads Left-hand (reverse) threads are found on bicycle left pedals and on some gas cylinders (⚠️ flammable gases use left-hand threads) and on rotating parts
Tightening ⭐ The "crosswise" rule for flanges and wheels. Over-tightening strips the thread and breaks the bolt
A stripped thread Drill it out and cut a larger size with a tap; or fit a thread insert; or use a through bolt with a nut
A seized bolt Penetrating oil (WD-40, kerosene, brake fluid) + time; heat; tapping; as a last resort, cut it off
Locking Locknut, split pin, spring washer, tab washer, thread-locking compound, staking

Stock: taps and dies in the main sizes (M4–M12), a set of bolts/nuts/washers, studs, split pins.

34.2. Bearings

Type Where Signs of wear
Plain (bush) Simple mechanisms, old machinery Play, knocking, heat. ⭐ Can be made from bronze, brass, hardwood or leather
Ball bearing Wheels, shafts, electric motors Humming, crunching, play, heat
Roller bearing Heavy loads The same
Thrust bearing Axial loads The same

Maintenance: * ⭐ Lubrication is 90 % of service life. Without lubricant a bearing dies within hours of running. * Wash it in kerosene/petrol, dry it, pack it with fresh grease, seal it against dust. * A sign of a dying bearing: heat above hand temperature. Stop immediately. * Markings: 6203 (ball bearing, 17 mm bore, 40 mm outside diameter, 12 mm wide) — an ISO standard, interchangeable worldwide. ⭐ Collect bearings from any machinery.

34.3. Belts and chains

Drive Pros Cons Maintenance
Flat belt ⭐ Simple, can be made from leather, canvas or conveyor belting Slips Tension, rosin for grip
V-belt Good grip, standard sizes Wears Tension (10–15 mm deflection under thumb pressure), replacement
Toothed (timing) belt Precise synchronisation ⛔ A break on an interference engine bends the valves Replace to schedule
Roller chain ⭐ Does not slip, high power, repairable link by link Needs lubrication, stretches ⭐ Lubrication, tension (sag 1–2 % of the span), replacing links

Bicycle chain is a universal resource: quick link, chain tool, lubricant. Stock up.

34.4. Lubrication

Type Use Substitute if unavailable
Engine oil Engines Vegetable oil (⚠️ it oxidises and polymerises), used oil (filtered)
Gear oil Gearboxes More viscous oils
Grease Bearings, joints A mixture of oil and soap/wax, animal fat (⚠️ it goes off)
Graphite High temperatures, locks Graphite from pencils/electric motor brushes
Kerosene/diesel Flushing, freeing seized parts
Wax, paraffin, soap Wood, sliding surfaces, saws
Animal fat (lard, lanolin) ⚠️ Temporarily It goes rancid and attracts animals

Rule: any lubricant is better than none. Overheated dry friction kills a mechanism within minutes.

⚠️ Used engine oil can be filtered (settling + cloth) and reused on non-critical assemblies, for protecting metal from rust, and for lubricating chains and saws. ⛔ Not for an engine.

34.5. Seals and gaskets

Type Replacement material
Flat gasket Gasket paper, card, leather, rubber, PTFE, copper foil; for high temperatures, an asbestos substitute or copper
Lip seal ⚠️ Hard to replace by hand. Salvage from donor machines
O-ring ⭐ Standard sizes. Salvage from any machinery
Gland packing (for pumps and valves) ⭐ Greased cord, flax thread with grease, graphite cord — you can make this yourself
Thread sealant Flax + paint/paste, PTFE tape

34.6. Pumps

Type Principle Pros Making it by hand
Piston (rod pump) Piston + two valves ⭐ High head, self-priming, repairable ⭐⭐⭐ Possible from pipe, leather and wood
Diaphragm Diaphragm + valves Tolerates dirt ⭐⭐ Possible
Centrifugal Impeller High flow ⚠️ Needs a drive and precision; ⛔ not self-priming
Screw (Archimedes' screw) A screw in a tube ⭐ Tolerates dirt, simple ⭐⭐⭐ Ancient technology, made from whatever is to hand
Hand "pitcher" pump Piston type ⭐ The classic for wells ⭐⭐⭐
Hydraulic ram ⭐ Uses the energy of the flow, requires no external drive Raises part of the water to a height with no fuel ⭐⭐ Requires understanding, but achievable
Airlift Air injected into a pipe Simple ⭐⭐ Needs a compressor

The hydraulic ram is one of the most valuable technologies for a settlement on a stream: it raises water 10–50 m with no electricity and no fuel, and works for years. Its volumetric efficiency is low (5–20 % of the flow is raised), but the energy is free.

Key pump parameters: * Head (m) — how high it will lift. * Flow (l/min) — how much. * ⚠️ Suction is limited to roughly 7–8 metres by physics (atmospheric pressure). Deeper than that, the pump must be a submersible or a rod pump.

34.7. Gear drives

Concept Meaning
Gear ratio i = Z2/Z1 (ratio of tooth numbers). It multiplies torque and divides speed by the same factor
Module m = d/Z (pitch diameter / number of teeth). ⚠️ Gears mesh only if the module is the same
Spur gears Simple, noisy
Helical gears Quieter, smoother, but they produce axial thrust
Worm drive ⭐ A large ratio in a single stage; self-locking
Rack and pinion Rotation → linear motion

In practice: * Gears from different mechanisms can be combined if the module matches. * Worn teeth → noise, vibration, failure. Replace them. * Lubrication is essential. * Repair: building up and filing a tooth is possible on slow-running drives.

34.8. Welding

Method What is needed Applicability
Manual arc (MMA, with electrodes) ⭐ A 60–200 A current source, electrodes, mask, gloves ⭐⭐⭐ The most accessible. The source is a welding set or a generator of sufficient power

⚠️ On "welding from car batteries". This trick is described in the literature and physically works (2–3 batteries in series give 24–36 V and hundreds of amps), but it is genuinely dangerous: at high current and with sparking, a lead-acid battery can explode, spraying sulphuric acid; cables and terminals glow red hot; the batteries are ruined. Use it only outdoors, in a mask and safety goggles, with a shield between you and the batteries, with sound terminals and heavy cables, and only if there is no other option. Confidence: medium that this can be done safely — most sources agree that the risk is high.

| Semi-automatic (MIG/MAG) | A set, wire, gas | Requires consumables | | Gas (oxy-acetylene) | Cylinders, torch, regulators | ⭐⭐ It also cuts metal. ⚠️ The cylinders are dangerous | | Forge welding | ⭐ Forge, hammer, flux (borax/sand) | ⭐⭐ Needs no electricity. Only for low-carbon steel | | Thermite | A mixture of iron oxide and aluminium | ⚠️ Special applications; extremely high temperature |

⚠️ Welding safety: * ⛔ A mask is mandatory — the arc causes corneal burns ("arc eye") within seconds and blindness on prolonged exposure. * ⛔ Covering clothing — the UV causes skin burns. * ⛔ Ventilation — metal fumes and oxides are toxic (galvanised steel especially → metal fume fever). * ⛔ Do not weld sealed containers that have held fuel — explosion. * ⛔ Clear combustible material for 10 m around — sparks travel a long way.

34.9. Soldering and brazing

Type Temperature Use
Soft solder (tin-lead) 180–250 °C Electronics, tinplate, wiring, tinning
Hard (brazing: copper-phosphorus, silver) 600–900 °C Pipes, mechanical joints, tools

Fundamentals: * ⭐ Cleanliness and flux are 90 % of success. Oxide will not take solder. * Fluxes: rosin (electronics), ⚠️ acid fluxes (soldering acid, zinc chloride) — for metalwork only, not for electronics (they corrode it). * Heat the workpiece, not the solder. * A good soldered joint is shiny, smooth and concave. * ⚠️ Lead and flux fumes are toxic — ventilate. * ⛔ Do not solder food containers with lead solder.

34.10. Diagnosis by symptom

Symptom Probable cause
An assembly running hot ⛔ No lubrication, misalignment, worn bearing, overload. Stop immediately
Knocking Play, wear, loose fixings
Vibration Imbalance, looseness, wear, misalignment
Squealing/screeching No lubrication, belt slipping
Humming A bearing
Oil leak A seal, a gasket, a crack
Loss of power Clogged filters, wear, insufficient fuel/air
A smell of burning Electric motor overload, friction, overheating
Sparking Commutator brushes, a poor contact, a short circuit

The golden rule of mechanics: find the cause first, then repair. Replacing a part without removing the cause leads straight to the next failure.


STAGE 35. WATER AND WIND POWER

⭐ These are the only sources of mechanical energy that need no fuel and work for centuries.

35.1. The water wheel

Types

Type Where Efficiency (indicative) Head
Undershot Fast flow, small drop 20–35 % 0.5–2 m
Breastshot Medium drop 40–60 % 1.5–4 m
Overshot ⭐ The best where the drop is sufficient ⭐ 60–85 % 2–10 m
Turbine (Pelton, Francis, Banki) High head, low flow 70–90 % 5–100+ m

Confidence: medium — efficiency depends on the workmanship; real home-built designs give less.

Calculating the available power

P (W) = ρ × g × Q × H × η

where ρ = 1000 kg/m³ (density of water)
      g = 9.81 m/s²
      Q = flow, m³/s
      H = head (drop in height), m
      η = efficiency (0.3–0.8)

SIMPLIFIED: P (W) ≈ 7000 × Q (m³/s) × H (m)   at ~0.7 efficiency

EXAMPLE:
  A stream with a flow of 30 l/s (0.03 m³/s) and a 3 m drop:
  P ≈ 7000 × 0.03 × 3 = 630 W

  That is a lot! Enough for lighting a settlement, charging,
  driving a mill or a machine tool.

How to measure a stream's flow

METHOD 1 (container): dam the flow, direct it into a chute,
  and time how long it takes to fill a bucket of known volume.
  Q = V / t.  A 10 l bucket in 20 s = 0.5 l/s = 0.0005 m³/s

METHOD 2 (float): measure the width (b) and mean depth (h) of the channel,
  float an object and time (t) how long it takes to cover a distance (L).
  Velocity v = L/t.
  Q = b × h × v × 0.8   (0.8 corrects for friction against the bed and banks)

Using the power

Power What it will do
100–300 W Lighting, charging, radio
300–1000 W + a mill (millstones), a grinder, a pump drive
1–5 kW + machine tools, a circular saw, a sawmill, a forge hammer
5+ kW A mini hydro plant for the settlement

What building it requires

  • A dam or a leat (diversion channel) to create the head.
  • A chute/pipe (the penstock).
  • A wheel or turbine.
  • A shaft, bearings, a drive (belt, gears).
  • For electricity: a generator (⭐ a car alternator or an induction motor run as a generator), a rectifier, a controller, batteries.

⚠️ Hazards: flooding in spate (design for the highest water); silting; ice in winter; dam failure; ⛔ rotating parts kill — guards are essential; ⚠️ conflict with neighbours over water downstream.

35.2. Wind turbines

Calculating the power

P (W) = 0.5 × ρ × A × v³ × Cp

where ρ ≈ 1.225 kg/m³ (density of air)
      A = swept area, m² (for a horizontal axis: π × R²)
      v = wind speed, m/s
      Cp = power coefficient (the Betz limit = 0.593;
           realistically 0.25–0.45 for good designs, 0.1–0.2 for home-built ones)

⭐ THE KEY FACT: power rises as the CUBE of wind speed.
   Doubling the wind speed = EIGHT TIMES the power.
   This is why SITE and HEIGHT matter more than the size of the turbine.

EXAMPLE:
  A 2 m diameter rotor (A = 3.14 m²), 6 m/s wind, Cp = 0.3:
  P = 0.5 × 1.225 × 3.14 × 216 × 0.3 ≈ 125 W

  The same turbine in a 3 m/s wind: P ≈ 16 W (eight times less!)

Types

Type Pros Cons
Horizontal axis, 3 blades ⭐ High efficiency Needs to be pointed into the wind, complex blades
Multi-blade ("American" farm windpump) ⭐ High torque at low speed — ideal for a pump Low speed, poor for a generator
Savonius (vertical, from a barrel) ⭐⭐ Very simple to build (a barrel cut in half), no need to point it Low efficiency (0.15–0.2)
Darrieus (vertical) No need to point it Not self-starting

Practical rules

  • Height is decisive. Ten metres higher, the wind speed is noticeably greater than near the ground. The mast is half the project.
  • ⭐ Clearance from obstacles: at least twice the height of the nearest obstacle within 100 m.
  • ⚠️ Storm protection is essential: furling, turning out of the wind, a brake. Otherwise the turbine will destroy itself in the first gale.
  • ⚠️ Guy wires for the mast are essential.
  • ⭐ For a mechanical drive (pump, mill) a wind turbine is far simpler than for electricity.

35.3. Mechanical line shafting

In the pre-electric era, power from one prime mover was distributed around a whole workshop by line shafts.

SOURCE (wheel/wind turbine/engine)
   ↓ (belt or gears)
MAIN SHAFT under the workshop ceiling (running the length of the building)
   ↓ (belts from individual pulleys)
MACHINES: lathe, drill press, grinder, circular saw, hammer, mill

Components: * A shaft (steel tube or bar) on bearings every 2–3 m. * Pulleys of different diameters — to change the speed (D1×n1 = D2×n2). * Flat or V-belts. * Loose pulleys and belt shifters — to engage/disengage an individual machine without stopping the whole shaft.

⚠️ Safety: exposed line shafting was historically a frequent cause of serious injury. Guards, no loose clothing or hair, an emergency stop.

35.4. Other sources of mechanical energy

Source Power Use
A person 75–100 W sustained, up to 300 W briefly Pedal drive (bicycle generator, grinder, mill, pump)
Horse/ox 400–700 W sustained Draught, or a drive via a horse gin (treadmill)
Steam engine From a few kW ⚠️ Requires a boiler (⛔ boiler explosion is a serious hazard), fuel and engineering
Stirling engine Tens to hundreds of W Runs on any heat source; ⚠️ low power density

Pedal power is an underrated solution. A bicycle + generator gives 50–100 W continuously. An hour of pedalling gives 50–100 Wh: enough for several hours of light and a phone charge.


STAGE 36. SOLAR ENERGY

36.1. System components

   ☀
   ↓
[PANEL]  converts light into direct current (DC)
   ↓
[CHARGE CONTROLLER]  protects the battery from over-charge/over-discharge
   ↓
[BATTERY]  stores energy for the night and for overcast days
   ↓
   ├──→ [12 V DC LOAD]   ⭐ direct supply, no losses
   └──→ [INVERTER] → [220 V AC LOAD]   with 10–15 % losses
Component What to choose
Panel Monocrystalline (higher efficiency, ~20–22 %) or polycrystalline. Peak power is given in watts (Wp) at standard conditions
Controller PWM — cheaper, suitable if the panel voltage is close to the battery voltage. MPPT — 15–30 % more efficient, essential for high-voltage panels. ⭐ MPPT pays for itself
Battery LiFePO4 (best of all) or AGM/gel; at a pinch, a deep-cycle lead-acid
Inverter "Pure sine wave" — universal. "Modified sine wave" — cheaper, but it damages motors, chargers and medical equipment
Fuses and breakers ⭐ Mandatory on every branch
Cables Cross-section by current (see STAGE 18)

36.2. Realistic output

⚠️ A 100 W panel does not give 100 W × 24 hours.

The key concept: "peak sun hours" (PSH) — how many hours a day the sun notionally shines at an intensity of 1000 W/m².

Region and season PSH (hours/day)
Subtropics, summer 6–7
Temperate latitudes, summer 4–5.5
Temperate latitudes, spring/autumn 2–3.5
Temperate latitudes (55–60° N), winter ⚠️ 0.5–1.5
High latitudes, winter ⚠️ 0–0.5
An overcast day 10–25 % of a clear one

Confidence: medium — the values depend on the specific location; use them as a guide.

FORMULA:
  Output (Wh/day) ≈ Panel rating (W) × PSH × K

  where K = 0.7–0.8 — the overall loss factor
      (dirt, panel heating, losses in the controller,
       cables, and battery charge/discharge)

EXAMPLE:
  A 100 W panel, summer in temperate latitudes (PSH = 5), K = 0.75:
  100 × 5 × 0.75 = 375 Wh/day

  The same panel in winter (PSH = 1):
  100 × 1 × 0.75 = 75 Wh/day — five times less!

Conclusion: design the system for WINTER, not for summer.

36.3. An example of a small system

The task: light, radio, charging phones, small tools.

Step 1: work out the consumption

Load Power Hours/day Wh/day
12 V LED lamp, 5 W × 3 15 W 4 60
Radio receiver 2 W 6 12
Phone charging × 2 30
Charging torches/handheld radios 20
Dosimeter 0.3 W 24 7
Allowance for small tools 30
TOTAL ~160 Wh/day

Step 2: size the panel

For winter in temperate latitudes (PSH = 1.5), K = 0.75:
  Required panel rating = 160 / (1.5 × 0.75) = 142 W

  → Take 200 W (margin for overcast days and degradation)

For summer in the same region (PSH = 5), 45 W would do.
A factor of four difference — which is why you size for winter.

Step 3: size the battery

Two days' autonomy with no sun: 160 × 2 = 320 Wh

For LiFePO4 (80 % depth of discharge):
  320 / 0.8 = 400 Wh → 400/12.8 V ≈ 31 Ah
  → Take 12.8 V × 50 Ah (with margin)

For lead-acid AGM (50 % depth of discharge):
  320 / 0.5 = 640 Wh → 640/12 V ≈ 53 Ah
  → Take 12 V × 100 Ah

Step 4: the controller

Charge current = panel rating / battery voltage
               = 200 W / 12 V ≈ 17 A
→ An MPPT controller of 20 A or more

Step 5: the inverter (optional)

If you need 220 V: a 300 W pure sine wave inverter. ⚠️ An inverter consumes 5–15 W on its own — switch it off when it is not needed.

Step 6: cables and protection

  • Panel → controller: 4 mm², 25 A fuse.
  • Controller → battery: 6 mm², 30 A fuse right at the battery.
  • Battery → loads: sized by current, each branch with its own fuse.

The final configuration

PANELS:       200 W (2 × 100 W)
CONTROLLER:   MPPT 20 A
BATTERY:      LiFePO4 12.8 V × 50 Ah (640 Wh, ~510 Wh usable)
              or AGM 12 V × 100 Ah
INVERTER:     300 W pure sine wave (optional)
FUSES:        on every branch
LOAD:         ~160 Wh/day — light, radio, charging, dosimeter

36.3a. ⚠️ Electrical safety of a solar system

Hazard Rule
A panel generates voltage WHENEVER light falls on it ⛔ It cannot be "switched off". Before installing or rewiring, cover the panel with heavy opaque cloth or cardboard
Direct current (DC) does not extinguish an arc Unlike alternating current, a DC arc is self-sustaining. Breaking a circuit under load gives a stable arc that sets the insulation alight. ⭐ Disconnect the load first, then the panel, then the battery
Panels wired in series 4–8 panels in series give 150–400 V DC — ⛔ a lethal voltage
Order of connection ⭐ First battery to controller, then panel to controller. The reverse order destroys many controllers
Order of disconnection The reverse: panel first, then battery
Earthing and lightning protection ⚠️ A panel on the roof is a target for lightning. Earth the frame
Fuses On every branch, close to the source

36.4. Mounting the panels

Parameter Recommendation
Orientation South (northern hemisphere), north (southern hemisphere)
Tilt angle in summer ≈ latitude − 15°
Tilt angle in winter ≈ latitude + 15°
Year-round angle ≈ the local latitude
Shading ⭐⭐⭐ Critical. A shadow from even a branch or a cable on one cell can collapse the output of the whole panel several-fold (series connection)
Cooling A 10 cm gap from the roof. ⚠️ Every 10 °C of panel heating above 25 °C reduces output by roughly 4 %
Cleanliness Dust, snow, droppings and ⭐ radioactive fallout reduce the output. Wash regularly (⚠️ in a fallout zone, in gloves and a respirator, and divert the run-off)
Mounting ⚠️ Wind loading. A panel is a sail
Conspicuousness ⚠️ Panels are visible from a distance and attract attention. Think about it

36.5. ⚠️ Limitations of solar power

Limitation Consequence
Winter at high latitudes Output falls by a factor of 5–15. ⭐ A backup is needed: a generator, a wind turbine, firewood
Overcast weather 10–25 % of normal
"Nuclear winter" ⚠️ If incoming solar radiation drops substantially, output will fall. Confidence: low as to the scale of the effect
Panel degradation ~0.5 % a year. After 25 years, ~85–88 % of the original rating. ⭐ Panels are the longest-lived component
Battery degradation ⭐⭐ The main bottleneck. Lead-acid 3–7 years, LiFePO4 10–15 years. After that the system dies without replacements
Controllers and inverters Electronics fail. ⭐ Keep a spare controller

Strategic conclusion: a solar system gives you 10–15 years of electricity. Use that time to build a water wheel or a wind turbine with a mechanical drive — those work for centuries and can be repaired by blacksmithing.

36.6. Solar energy without electricity

Application Device Effect
Cooking A solar oven: a box with foil reflectors and glass/film on top ⭐ 100–150 °C, boiling and baking with no fuel
Boiling/disinfecting water SODIS (see STAGE 11) or a solar concentrator Disinfection
Desalination/distillation A solar still (see STAGE 11) 0.3–1 l/m²/day
Drying food A solar dryer (a dark tray + a transparent lid + ventilation) ⭐ Preserving the harvest
Heating water A black container/hose in the sun ⭐ Showers, washing up — a large fuel saving
Space heating A solar collector of black cans/pipes behind glass on a south wall Extra warmth by day
Lighting Light pipes, mirrors, pale surfaces, the "bottle lamp" (a water-filled plastic bottle set into a hole in the roof) Saves batteries

⭐ These technologies do not degrade and need no spare parts. In the long run they matter more than photovoltaic panels.


PART VII. ORGANISING A SETTLEMENT

STAGE 37. THE INFORMATION SYSTEM

Memory fails. Paper does not. A group that keeps records makes better decisions and outlives a group that relies on memory.

37.1. What to keep

Log Why Frequency
Map of the area What is where, what is dangerous, what has already been searched Continuously
Radiation log To understand the trend, identify safe zones and routes ⭐ Daily, and hourly in the first days
Weather log Forecasting, planning farm work Daily
Medical log History of illness, medicines, allergies, who had what As events occur
Food inventory How much is left, how long it will last Weekly
Water inventory Consumption, sources, quality Weekly
Seed inventory What you have, germination rates, what was sown, what was harvested Seasonally
Medicines inventory Stock, expiry dates, usage Monthly
Fuel inventory Stock, consumption, forecast Weekly
Tool inventory What you have, where, who took it, condition Monthly
General events log A chronicle: what happened, what was decided, what was done ⭐ Daily
Contacts log Who came, what was agreed, what was exchanged As events occur

37.2. Templates

RADIATION LOG

Date Time Place (description/coordinates) Instrument Reading Unit Inside/outside Cumulative dose (if available) Who measured Notes
µSv/h

How to keep it: * ⭐ Always state the unit — confusing µSv/h with mSv/h gives a 1000-fold error. * Measure at the same point so the trend is comparable. * Note unusual values and "hot spots". * Plot a graph: time → reading. That shows whether the decay is behaving as expected.

INDIVIDUAL DOSE LOG

Name Date Event/excursion Time outside Average dose rate Dose for the event ⭐ Cumulative dose (total)

Track everyone's cumulative dose. It lets you allocate dangerous tasks fairly: whoever has the lower dose goes next time.

WEATHER LOG

Date Time Temperature Wind (direction, strength) Cloud Precipitation Pressure (if available) Notes (frost, thunderstorm, fog)

⭐ Wind direction is critical: it determines where fallout, smoke and chemical clouds go.

MEDICAL RECORD (one per person)

NAME: ______________________  Year of birth: ______  Weight: ______
Blood group (if known): ______  Rhesus: ______
Allergies: ______________________________________________
Chronic conditions: _____________________________________
Regular medicines and doses: ____________________________
Vaccinations (tetanus — the date!): _____________________
Spectacles/lenses, prescription: ________________________
Other notes: ____________________________________________

CONSULTATION LOG:
| Date | Complaint | Temperature | What was given (drug, dose) | Outcome |
|------|-----------|-------------|-----------------------------|---------|
|      |           |             |                             |         |

FOOD INVENTORY

Item Quantity Unit kcal per unit Date stored Best before Storage place Condition

At the bottom of the table, without fail:

TOTAL CALORIES: __________
MOUTHS TO FEED: __________
DAILY CONSUMPTION (kcal): __________
⭐ WILL LAST (days): __________
DATE IT RUNS OUT: __________

That line is the most important one in the settlement. It determines when you have to start acting.

WATER INVENTORY

Date Source Volume obtained, l Treatment method Stock remaining, l Daily consumption, l Will last (days)

SEED INVENTORY

Crop Variety Year collected Quantity (g/count) Germination (% by test) Test date Sown (where, when) Seed harvested

MEDICINES INVENTORY

Medicine Form/strength Quantity Expiry date Storage conditions Prescribed for Remaining

FUEL INVENTORY

Type Quantity Unit Daily consumption Will last Storage place Note
Firewood m³/kg
Coal kg
Petrol l Date filled, stabiliser
Diesel l
Gas cylinders

TOOL INVENTORY

Tool Quantity Condition Storage place Who has it now Return date

EVENTS LOG (daily)

DATE: __________  DUTY PERSON: __________

WEATHER: ________________________________
RADIATION (background): _________________
PEOPLE: total ______, sick ______, absent ______
WATER: obtained ______ l, remaining ______ l
FOOD: ______ days remaining

EVENTS:
_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________

DECISIONS TAKEN:
_______________________________________________________

TASKS FOR TOMORROW:
1. _____________________________________________________
2. _____________________________________________________
3. _____________________________________________________

PROBLEMS AND RISKS:
_______________________________________________________

MAP OF THE AREA — conventional symbols

Keep one large map on the wall and mark on it:

Symbol Meaning
Our settlement
Medical resource (pharmacy, hospital)
Water source (note: checked/unchecked, quality)
Searched building (note: what was taken, what is left)
⛔ Radiation hazard (record the readings and the date!)
⛔ Chemical hazard
🔥 Fire/burnt-out area
⛔ Do not go (collapse, a gang, a bog, a destroyed bridge)
Other people (note: friendly/unknown/hostile, the date)
Resource (warehouse, shop, farm)
Checked route
Energy source (generator, panels, a stream)
Land suitable for agriculture

Every mark gets a date. Circumstances change: what was safe a month ago may be dangerous today.

37.3. Rules for keeping records

Rule Why
Pencil, not pen It does not freeze, does not run out suddenly, writes on wet paper, and can be rubbed out when correcting
Date and time on every entry Without a date the entry is useless
Units of measurement, always A 1000-fold error kills
The signature of whoever wrote it So it can be queried
Do not erase mistakes — strike them through The history of decisions stays visible
Duplicate what is critical A second copy somewhere else
One place for keeping the logs, known to all Nothing gets lost
Protection from water and fire A sealed bag, a metal box
Read the records aloud at the weekly meeting Otherwise nobody uses them

STAGE 38. ORGANISING THE GROUP

38.1. Why a group

Alone In a group
Injury = death Someone nurses the injured
Sleeping unguarded Watches
No division of labour Specialisation
One person must hold every skill Complementary skills
Psychological collapse Support
No future Children, passing on knowledge

⚠️ But a group creates new problems: conflict, epidemics, resource consumption, the need for management.

Optimal size: 5–15 people to start with; 30–150 for a sustainable settlement (the historical norm for communities where everyone knows everyone personally).

38.2. Responsibilities (roles)

⭐ Assign specific people to specific functions. "Everyone is responsible" = nobody is responsible.

Role Responsibilities Who suits it
Coordinator Overall decisions, allocating tasks, resolving conflict, keeping the general log Calm, accepted by others, not necessarily the strongest
Medic The first-aid kit, treatment, sanitary oversight, the medical log Someone with training or a willingness to learn
Water officer Obtaining it, disinfecting, accounting, distributing, checking containers Methodical
Food officer Accounting, storage, cooking, rationing, protection from rodents Methodical, honest
Energy and equipment officer Generator/panels/batteries, lighting, tools, repairs Technically minded
Sanitation officer Latrines, waste, handwashing, insect and rodent control ⭐ An underrated but critically important role
Radiation officer Measurements, the log, determining safe zones, monitoring doses Attentive to detail
Security officer Watches, observation, perimeter checks, response Level-headed, not aggressive
Communications officer Radio, monitoring the airwaves, notes, contacts Patient
Children and teaching officer Supervision, lessons, teaching reading and arithmetic ⭐ Not a "secondary" role
Quartermaster / storekeeper Accounting for all property, distribution, issuing against signature Meticulous

⚠️ In a small group one person combines several roles. What matters is that every function has a name attached to it.

Redundancy: every critical role needs a deputy who knows what to do. The death or illness of one person must not stop a function.

38.3. The group's sanitary rules (post them on the wall)

THE RULES THAT SAVE LIVES

1. Wash your hands: after the toilet, before eating, after caring for the sick,
   after coming back from outside
2. Use the latrine only in the designated place. Always cover it
3. Footwear comes off at the boundary. Outdoor clothing does not enter the sleeping area
4. Drinking water only from marked containers, with a dipper, not by hand
5. Anyone with diarrhoea or fever does NOT cook and does NOT carry water
6. The sick are isolated. Separate utensils
7. Food stays covered. Waste is taken out daily
8. Air the room 2–3 times a day
9. Rubbish and waste go to the designated place, far from water
10. Report any illness to the medic IMMEDIATELY

38.4. Watches and shifts

Task Organisation
Night watch Shifts of 2–4 hours, no more. Longer and the person falls asleep
Domestic duty person For 24 hours: water, cooking, cleaning, the log
Fire/stove watch ⭐ Essential at night; risk of CO and fire
Rotation of heavy work Do not give all the heavy work to the same person
Rotation of dangerous tasks ⭐ By cumulative dose (see the dose log)
A day off ⭐ Essential. People without rest break down within weeks

38.5. Decision-making

Type of decision Method
Immediate, life-threatening ⭐ Taken single-handedly by whoever is there. Discussion afterwards
Tactical (what we do today) The coordinator, taking account of the officers' views
Strategic (do we leave or stay, do we take people in, do we share resources) ⭐ General discussion, decided by majority or consensus
Professional (medicine, engineering, radiation) ⭐ Decided by the specialist; the group does not vote on questions of fact
Allocating resources Openly, by rules everyone knew in advance

The key rule: rules are set BEFORE the situation arises. Deciding "who gets the last dose of antibiotic" in the middle of a crisis guarantees a split.

The daily meeting (10–15 minutes)

1. What happened in the last 24 hours (the log)
2. Status: people, water, food, fuel, health
3. Today's tasks, who is doing what
4. Problems and suggestions
5. Who is on duty

⭐ A short regular meeting removes most conflicts.

38.6. Conflict

Typical causes

Cause Prevention
Unfair distribution of food ⭐ Open accounting, everyone sees the figures, equal portions, with children and the sick treated by rules everyone knows
Uneven workload Rotation, a record of work done, open discussion
Theft Accounting, locks, clear rules and consequences announced in advance
Leadership An accepted coordinator, transparent decisions
Hygiene and noise Rules posted on the wall
New arrivals ⭐ Rules for admission set in advance
Children Rules, keeping them occupied, sharing supervision
Religious and political disagreements An agreement not to discuss them, or to discuss them at a set time
Relationships and jealousy As much personal space as possible

Resolving a conflict

1. SEPARATE the parties immediately, let them cool down
2. ⭐ CHECK the basic causes: hunger, thirst, lack of sleep, pain, fear.
   Most conflicts are physiology, not character
3. LISTEN to each person separately
4. ESTABLISH the facts (logs, witnesses)
5. DECIDE by the established rule, not by who you like
6. ANNOUNCE the decision publicly and explain the reasoning
7. RECORD the precedent — it becomes a rule

Rule: a hungry, sleep-deprived person in pain is not a "bad person", but someone whose basic needs are unmet. Feed them and let them sleep first; correct them afterwards.

38.7. Children

Need How to meet it
Safety Physical and emotional. Clear boundaries
Routine and predictability A daily timetable. Children cope with catastrophe far better when there is a routine
Truthful information, appropriate to their age ⛔ Do not lie ("everything is fine"), ⛔ do not frighten them with details. "Something bad has happened, we are safe, and this is what we are doing"
Being occupied Duties within their capability give them a sense of control and worth
Education Reading, writing, arithmetic — every day, at least an hour. It is both occupation and future
Play ⭐ Not a luxury. Play is how trauma is processed
Physical contact Hugs, the closeness of adults
Food Children need more calories per kg of body weight and dehydrate faster

⚠️ Signs of psychological trauma in children: regression (bedwetting, speaking "like a younger child"), nightmares, muteness, aggression, refusing to let an adult go, repetitive play about the disaster. These are normal reactions. What is needed is routine, patience, conversation and time.

38.8. Older people

Problem Solution
Medicines ⭐ Priority for preserving the stock
Thermoregulation They get cold and overheat faster. The best spot, more blankets
Dehydration A weak sense of thirst — give them drinks on a schedule
Mobility Help, but not isolation
Nutrition Soft food where teeth are a problem
Their value Experience, crafts, knowledge of the area, knowing "how things were done before", minding children, teaching. Do not treat them as a burden

38.9. Teaching

⭐ In the very first month, start teaching everyone the basics:

Skill Who must be able to do it
Stopping bleeding, tourniquet ⭐ EVERYONE
CPR EVERYONE
Disinfecting water ⭐ EVERYONE
Lighting a fire EVERYONE
Using a dosimeter ⭐ At least 3 people
Decontamination EVERYONE
Using a radio At least 3 people
Cooking At least 3 people
Basic repairs At least 2 people
Map reading At least 3 people
Reading and writing ⭐ EVERYONE, children included

Method: short practical sessions of 20–30 minutes, repeated. Not lectures.


STAGE 39. SECURITY

This section deliberately does NOT contain instructions for making explosives, mines, lethal traps, improvised ammunition, or chemical or biological weapons. Such devices kill your own people more often than anyone else's, and they make a return to normal life impossible.

39.1. The governing principle

The best security is not being a target.

Conflict means the risk of death, of injury (with no hospital), of losing resources, and of escalation. Even "winning" a confrontation can kill you later through an infected wound.

The hierarchy:

1. INVISIBILITY    — nobody knows you are there
2. UNATTRACTIVENESS — they know you are there, but you do not look like prey
3. WARNING         — you know they are coming in advance
4. NEGOTIATION     — you settle it with words
5. WITHDRAWAL      — you leave
6. DEFENCE         — the last resort

39.2. Invisibility

Measure How
Light ⭐ Blackout: heavy curtains, no light visible from outside. At night a lit window is visible for kilometres
Smoke ⭐ Burn fuel at night or in overcast/windy weather; use dry wood (less smoke); a good stove
Smell Cooking can be smelled hundreds of metres away
Sound A generator is audible a kilometre away. Voices, music, banging — keep them down
Tracks Paths, rubbish and fresh footprints give a dwelling away
The building's appearance ⭐ Leave it looking "already looted": do not repair the façade, do not clear the rubbish from the entrance, do not hang washing in view
Solar panels, antennas ⚠️ Visible from a distance. Site them behind the roof ridge, camouflage them
Radio transmissions ⭐ Keep them to a minimum. See STAGE 19

39.3. Observation

Measure Implementation
Observation post An upper floor, a window overlooking the approaches; the observer themselves unseen
All-round view Know every approach. Draw up a diagram of sectors
Schedule ⭐ Round the clock if there are enough people; at least at night
2–4 hour shifts Longer and attention fails
Observation log Time, what was seen, the direction
Binoculars ⭐ They let you assess a situation without going closer
Alarm signal ⭐ Agreed in advance: a whistle, a struck rail, a word. Everyone knows what to do on the signal

39.4. Warning devices (non-violent)

⭐ The aim is to find out in advance, not to injure anyone.

Device How
A line with tins/bells across an approach Noise when it is touched
Gravel, broken glass, dry twigs on the approaches Crunching
Creaking floorboards and steps Do not repair them
A dog ⭐⭐⭐ The best alarm there is. It hears and smells long before a person does
Geese ⭐ Historically excellent sentries, very loud
Threads/lines with small weights in passageways Checking "who has been here"
Dust/sand on a threshold Footprints
Marks on a door (a hair, a splinter) Detecting entry

Do not make: traps that cause harm. They go off on children, animals, passers-by and your own people. The legal and moral consequences survive the catastrophe.

39.5. Strengthening entrances

Measure Effect
One main entrance, the rest blocked from inside Control
Always keep an emergency exit known to your own people Fire
Reinforcing the door: a bar across it, props into the floor Mechanical delay
Grilles/blocking up the ground-floor windows Delay
Lighting the approaches (where power is available) or reflectors Detection
Obstacles on the approaches (furniture, rubble, thorny shrubs) Slowing people down
An internal "keep" — a room to fall back into A reserve

⚠️ The trade-off: the better fortified it is, the harder it is to get out in a fire. ⭐ Fire is a more likely threat than attack. Always keep a way out.

39.6. Negotiation and de-escalation

⭐ Most encounters with strangers end peacefully if neither side is frightened.

RULES OF FIRST CONTACT

1. SEE THEM FIRST. The advantage in information matters most of all
2. DO NOT LET THEM CLOSE. Talk from a distance
3. SPEAK CALMLY, evenly, loudly and clearly
4. ⭐ DO NOT HUMILIATE. A humiliated man comes back with friends
5. DO NOT TELL OBVIOUS LIES (a checkable lie destroys trust),
   but do not disclose either: how many of you there are, what you have, where you sleep
6. ⭐ OFFER THEM A WAY OUT: "we are not your enemies, go on your way",
   "we can share some water", "there is a pharmacy further down the street,
   we have not been there"
7. ⭐ LOOK FOR AN EXCHANGE instead of a confrontation. Trade benefits both sides more than a fight does
8. LET THEM SAVE FACE. Do not force a choice between
   "humiliation or attack"
9. DO NOT BLUFF about what you cannot do
10. END the conversation and part. Do not drag it out

Signs of escalation (time to break off contact)

  • The other party splitting up and moving to your flanks.
  • Closing in while talking.
  • Testing your reactions with provocations.
  • Questions about how many people you have, your stores, your weapons, your routine.
  • Refusing to keep their distance.
  • More people appearing.

Action: end the conversation, withdraw, take cover, alert the group.

39.7. Evacuation routes

⭐ Even the best-fortified place can become untenable (fire, collapse, an overwhelming threat, a chemical release).

□ TWO withdrawal routes in different directions identified
□ Every member of the group knows them and has walked them
□ An ASSEMBLY POINT identified in case you are separated (and a backup)
□ A "we are leaving" signal agreed
□ Everyone has a "go bag" packed (water, two days' food,
  first-aid kit, documents, torch, warm clothing, knife)
□ It is settled who helps the children, the injured and the elderly
□ It is settled what is taken last and what is abandoned
□ It is settled who leads and who brings up the rear

39.8. Emergency caches

Do not keep all your eggs in one basket.

Rule
Split the stores across 3+ places: the main store, a near cache, a distant cache
A cache is a sealed container, buried or hidden away from the dwelling
In the cache: water, a week's food, a first-aid kit, tools, clothing, a few items for barter
Two or three people know where the cache is, not everyone
⭐ Record the place and coordinates in a form an outsider cannot read
Check it every six months

39.9. What does not work

⛔ A bad idea Why
Displaying strength and stores It attracts the attention of those who are stronger
Threats you are not prepared to carry out It invites people to test them
Firing "as a warning" The sound carries for kilometres and tells everybody there is something here worth defending
Lethal traps They kill your own people, children and animals; and they make you a criminal in any society that is rebuilt
Complete isolation from all your neighbours ⭐ Neighbours are a resource: trade, information, mutual aid, joint defence
Complete trust in strangers straight away A risk
A single fortified place with no plan for leaving it A trap

Strategic conclusion: in the long run, cooperation with neighbouring groups gives more security than any fortification. A community that trades and helps survives; a community that fights everyone dies out.


STAGE 40. PSYCHOLOGY

⭐ The mind is a resource just like water and food. A person who has broken down does not work, makes dangerous decisions, and damages the group.

40.1. Acute stress reaction

What happens: faced with a threat to life, the body switches into survival mode. This is normal, not weakness.

Type of reaction Presentation What to do
Hyperarousal Agitation, shouting, pointless activity, aggression Give one simple, specific task. In a firm, calm voice. Physical contact (a hand on the shoulders)
Freezing Stillness, silence, staring into space, not responding to instructions Use their name, establish eye contact, give them a simple action ("hold this", "drink")
Panic Flight, irrational actions Stop them physically, separate them from the group (panic is contagious), give them a task
Hysteria Shouting, crying, sobbing, theatricality Remove the audience, speak calmly, neither pity nor scold, give them water
Apathy Indifference, lethargy, "I don't care" Do not leave them alone, give them simple work, feed them, let them sleep
Pseudo-normality Too calm, making jokes, acting mechanically ⚠️ Watch them: the reaction will come later
1. MAKE THEM SAFE        — take them away from danger and from the sight of it
2. MEET BASIC NEEDS      — water, food, warmth, a toilet, pain relief
   ⭐ Most "psychological" problems are hunger,
      thirst, cold, pain and lack of sleep
3. STAY WITH THEM        — do not leave them alone
4. LISTEN, DO NOT PRESS  — do not make them talk
5. GIVE INFORMATION      — truthful and specific: what is known, what we are doing
6. GIVE THEM A TASK      — ⭐ action restores a sense of control
7. CONNECT THEM WITH FAMILY — if possible
⛔ DO NOT SAY: "calm down", "everything will be fine", "it could have been worse",
   "I know how you feel", "it was meant to be"
✅ DO SAY: "I am here", "you are safe now", "here is what we do
   next", "your reaction is normal"

40.2. Grief and loss

Normal phases (not necessarily in this order, and not for everyone): shock and denial → anger → bargaining → depression → acceptance.

Rule
Give people the chance to say goodbye. Even a minimal ritual (the body covered, words said, the place marked) matters critically for the mind
Do not rush them: "you have to move on" is a harmful phrase in the first days
Do not forbid crying
Mark and record the name, date and place of burial — it matters both for the bereaved and for the future
Bring the person back to their duties gradually, but do bring them back
Watch those who are "holding up too well"

⚠️ Warning signs that need the group's attention: talking about death as a release, giving away their possessions, complete loss of interest, refusing food and water. Do not leave them alone, speak plainly, remove access to the obvious means, and load them up with duties and company.

40.3. Apathy, exhaustion, burnout

Causes: chronic lack of sleep, undernourishment, no prospects, monotony, constant fear.

Measure Effect
Sleep 7–8 hours. Lack of sleep destroys thinking and immunity faster than anything else
Calories Hunger causes apathy, irritability and obsessive thoughts about food
A visible result Tasks with a definite completion: "we fixed the door", "we collected 20 l of water"
Variety A change of activity
A goal beyond the horizon Planting a garden, repairing the house, teaching the children. People with no future break down
Personal space At least a corner, at least an hour a day
Hygiene and order ⭐ A washed and shaved person feels like a person. This is not a trifle
Laughter, music, stories ⭐ Not a luxury. A survival mechanism
Rituals: eating together, evening conversations, celebrations ⭐ They structure time and bind the group

40.4. Sleep deprivation — the underrated killer

Duration Effect
24 hours without sleep Reduced attention, irritability, mistakes
48 hours Microsleeps, markedly worse judgement, emotional instability
72+ hours ⚠️ Hallucinations, paranoia, inability to make decisions

Rule: in a crisis, organise sleep by force, to a schedule, even when "there is no time for sleep". Someone who has not slept for 24 hours is more dangerous to the group than their absence would be.

40.5. Decision fatigue

What it is: the capacity to make good decisions is a limited resource. By the end of the day decisions get worse.

Measure
Make a routine of everything you can: a timetable, standard procedures, checklists
Important decisions in the morning, with a fresh head
Checklists instead of memory (see STAGES 43, 45)
Delegate
⛔ Do not make strategic decisions hungry, tired, angry, or at night
The "sleep on it" rule, where the decision is not urgent

40.6. Group dynamics

Phenomenon Risk Countermeasure
Groupthink Everyone agrees with the leader, criticism is suppressed → catastrophic decisions ⭐ Appoint a "devil's advocate", ask each person separately, starting with the most junior
Polarisation The group takes more extreme decisions than any individual would A pause before deciding, writing the arguments down
Diffusion of responsibility "Somebody else will do it" ⭐ Named assignments
Scapegoating The group finds one person to blame for everything The leader stops it immediately and publicly
Splitting into subgroups Destructive Shared work, shared meals, rotating working pairs
Bunker syndrome Paranoia, hostility to everyone outside Planned contacts with neighbours, exchange
Leader burnout Mistakes, collapse A deputy, sharing the load, days off for the leader

40.7. An example daily structure

A timetable is the cheapest psychological medicine there is. It restores predictability to an unpredictable world.

06:30  Rise (earlier in summer, later in winter — by the light)
07:00  Hygiene: washing, latrine, foot care
07:30  Breakfast (⭐ TOGETHER, everyone)
08:00  MORNING MEETING (10–15 min):
         • the night's report, the logs
         • the state of the people, water, food and fuel
         • the day's tasks, who is doing what
         • measuring the background and recording it
08:30  WORK (block 1): water, firewood, the garden, repairs, excursions
11:30  Rest, water
12:30  Midday meal
13:00  ⭐ QUIET HOUR: sleep/rest. Compulsory, especially for children,
         the elderly, the sick and those on night watch
14:00  WORK (block 2): a different kind of activity from the morning
17:00  ⭐ TEACHING: children — reading/arithmetic; adults — first aid,
         crafts, passing on skills. Every day
18:00  Hygiene, tidying, preparing for the night
18:30  Evening meal (⭐ TOGETHER)
19:00  ⭐ TIME TOGETHER: conversation, stories, music, games, plans.
         Not about the catastrophe
20:30  Preparing for sleep; checks: stove, lights, doors, watch
21:00  Lights out. First watch begins
       Watches: 21–24, 24–03, 03–06

Principles of the timetable

Principle Why
Shared meals The main ritual that holds a group together. A check that everyone is alive and well
Work in blocks, with breaks Productivity and safety
Compulsory rest Not "whenever it happens"
Daily teaching An investment in the future, and occupation
Time with no talk of the catastrophe Mental hygiene
Seasonal flexibility In summer work from dawn, in winter shorter days
A day off once a week ⭐ The historical norm is no accident
Celebrations and marking dates Birthdays, New Year, the harvest. They sustain the sense that life goes on

40.8. What to avoid

Why
Alcohol as a remedy for stress It worsens sleep, deepens depression and aggression, dehydrates, and impairs thermoregulation
Round-the-clock discussion of the catastrophe It sustains anxiety
No timetable Disorientation, apathy
No goal beyond the horizon ⭐ The main cause of psychological death
Isolating individual group members Depression, conflict
Forbidding the expression of emotion It builds up and explodes
No personal space at all Aggression
⛔ Lying to the group about the situation It destroys trust for good. ⭐ Tell the truth, however hard, but tell it together with a plan

PART VIII. DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM

STAGE 41. PRIORITIES

41.1. Classifying threats by time to death

The governing principle of prioritisation: deal with whatever will kill you soonest.

Category Time to death Threats
MINUTES 0–10 min Airway obstruction; massive bleeding; drowning; asphyxiation (CO, CO2, smoke, H2S); fire; collapse; electrocution; blast; a very high dose rate (tens of Sv/h)
HOURS 1–24 h Severe hypothermia/hyperthermia; shock; airway burns; severe poisoning; a high dose rate (a few Sv/h); tension pneumothorax; anaphylaxis
DAYS 1–7 days Dehydration; acute blood loss without replacement; sepsis; severe diarrhoea; absence of critical medicines (insulin, anticonvulsants); moderate hypothermia
WEEKS 1–8 weeks Acute radiation syndrome; wound infection; starvation in the already wasted; pneumonia; epidemics; absence of sanitation
MONTHS 2–12 months Hunger; vitamin deficiencies (scurvy, beriberi); chronic illness without treatment; cold without fuel; psychological exhaustion; conflict
YEARS 1–20+ years Food-chain contamination; cancer; equipment degradation; inbreeding in a small population; loss of knowledge

41.2. A method for prioritising tasks

The "Urgency × Consequences" matrix

For each task, assess two parameters:

URGENCY (U): * 5 — if it is not done now, somebody dies within the hour; * 4 — within 24 hours; * 3 — within a week; * 2 — within a month; * 1 — within a year or longer.

CONSEQUENCES (C): * 5 — the death of several people / the loss of the group; * 4 — the death of one person; * 3 — serious injury or the loss of a critical resource; * 2 — the loss of a significant resource or of someone's ability to work; * 1 — inconvenience.

Priority = U × C

Priority Action
20–25 ⛔ Immediately; everything else stops
12–19 Today
6–11 This week
3–5 This month
1–2 When there is time

An example of it in use

Task U C Priority When
Someone is bleeding 5 4 20 Immediately
Smell of gas in the basement 5 5 25 Immediately
Water is running out (one day left) 4 5 20 Immediately
The latrine does not work and people are relieving themselves near the water 3 5 15 Today
The stove is smoking into the room 5 5 25 Immediately
Not enough firewood for winter (it is July) 1 5 5 This month (⚠️ but do not forget it!)
A tool has broken 2 2 4 This month
The garden needs planting (it is April) 3 5 15 This week (miss the season and you starve)
The children need to be taught to read 1 3 3 Continuously, a little at a time
Sort through the books we found 1 2 2 When there is time

⚠️ The "low urgency, high consequences" trap

Tasks like "lay in firewood in summer", "plant the garden in spring", "make hay", "save seed" have low urgency today and catastrophic consequences six months later.

Rule: tasks with C ≥ 4 that are tied to a season go onto a separate "seasonal obligations" list and are done by the calendar, regardless of today's urgency.

41.3. The rule of threes

The classic mnemonic for a quick assessment (approximate, but useful):

3 minutes  — without air
3 hours    — without shelter in extreme conditions (frost, heat, wet clothing)
3 days     — without water
3 weeks    — without food
3 months   — without hope and purpose

⚠️ This is a simplification. In the nuclear scenario one more line is inserted:

30 minutes — without shelter in a zone of active fallout

STAGE 42. THE TIMELINE

The first 10 SECONDS

□ DO NOT LOOK at the flash
□ DROP face down, behind cover
□ Hands under the body, mouth slightly open, ears covered
□ WAIT for the blast wave

The first 10 MINUTES

□ Wait out the wave + 30–60 seconds
□ Check yourself: blood, burns, fractures, breathing
□ Check those around you: who is walking, who is not
□ Stop massive bleeding (yours and other people's)
□ ⭐ GO INSIDE AND DOWN — to the nearest massive building
□ Do NOT look for possessions, do NOT phone, do NOT drive
□ Take only what is already in your hands

The first HOUR

□ Get into the most protected place available
□ Decontamination at the entrance (remove outer clothing — up to 90 %)
□ Close windows and doors, switch off the supply ventilation and the air conditioning
□ Shut off the gas
□ ⭐ DRAW WATER while there is still pressure in the pipes (the bath, every container)
□ Switch on an AM/FM radio, find a station, WRITE DOWN the frequency
□ Treat wounds and burns
□ Set up a toilet IN ADVANCE
□ Start the log: time of the detonation, direction of the flash, wind direction,
  dosimeter readings
□ Count the people and the resources
□ Appoint a fire/CO watch

The first 6 HOURS

□ Stay inside. DO NOT GO OUT
□ Build up mass around the resting place (books, water, furniture) — safely
□ Set up sleeping places, warm, not on the bare floor
□ Ration water and food FROM THE START
□ Listen to the radio to a schedule (10 minutes an hour — saving batteries)
□ Measure and record the background every hour
□ Organise sleep in shifts
□ Reassure the children, give them tasks
□ Examine those who were outside: nausea, vomiting — record the TIME
□ Check the ventilation: is it getting stuffy, is there CO

The first 24 HOURS

□ ⭐ DO NOT GO OUT (FEMA: do not self-evacuate before 24 hours)
□ Exception: fire, collapse, gas, CO — then leave (see 2.21)
□ Exception: moving from very poor shelter (PF≈2) to good shelter (PF>10),
  if that is ≤30 minutes outdoors and AWAY from ground zero
□ Continue the measurements and the log
□ Organise food, hygiene, the toilet
□ Establish who is seriously injured and who can help
□ Draw up a plan for the next 24 hours
□ Calculate how long the water and food will last
□ Listen to the airwaves: zones, routes, aid points

The first 3 DAYS

□ The dose rate has fallen to roughly 0.5–1 % of the first-hour level
□ Short excursions if necessary (water, medicines, people):
    • a list of tasks drawn up beforehand
    • covering clothing, respirator, goggles, gloves
    • a time limit
    • decontamination on entry
    • record the dose
□ Get sanitation working (⭐ it becomes critical)
□ Find neighbours and survivors, join forces
□ Reconnoitre the nearest resources
□ Assess the condition of the building
□ Decide: do we stay here or look for somewhere better
□ Watch the exposed: vomiting, weakness

The first WEEK

□ Stabilise water: a source + a treatment method + storage
□ Stabilise food: inventory, rationing, searching
□ Stabilise sanitation: latrine, handwashing, waste
□ Stabilise warmth: fuel, insulation, a safe stove
□ Organise the group: roles, watches, a timetable, rules
□ Start the logs (STAGE 37)
□ Reconnoitre the area, make a map
□ Find and collect: a dosimeter, medicines, tools, batteries, seed
□ Assess: can we live here for months, or must we leave
□ ⭐ Start thinking about food for next year

The first MONTH

□ Settle the question of long-term housing (STAGE 16)
□ Get power working: solar panel / generator / batteries
□ Get communications working: radio, a schedule, contacts with neighbours
□ Collect resources systematically, to a plan (STAGES 22, 44)
□ ⭐ LAND: find a plot, assess the soil, plan the garden
□ ⭐ SEED: find it, test germination, store it
□ Assemble a library (STAGE 32)
□ Begin teaching children and adults
□ Organise storage: a cellar, protection from rodents
□ Lay in fuel for the next cold season
□ The peak of acute radiation syndrome in the exposed (weeks 2–6) — nursing, isolation
  from infection, hydration

The first YEAR

THE SEASONAL CYCLE — it determines everything

SPRING:
  □ Planting (⭐ missing the season = hunger a year later)
  □ Repairing the dwelling after winter
  □ Laying in firewood for the following winter (it takes a year to season!)
  □ Animals' young

SUMMER:
  □ Tending the crops, watering, weeding
  □ Making hay
  □ Building and major repairs
  □ Drying and preserving the early crops
  □ Reconnaissance and resource collection

AUTUMN:  ⭐ THE CRITICAL SEASON
  □ Harvest
  □ Putting food into store (cellar, drying, fermenting, salting)
  □ ⭐ Collecting seed for next year
  □ Laying in fuel
  □ Insulating the dwelling
  □ Slaughtering surplus animals, preserving the meat
  □ Repairing clothing and footwear
  □ Stocktaking: ⭐ WILL IT LAST UNTIL THE NEXT HARVEST?

WINTER:
  □ Economising on resources
  □ Repairing tools
  □ Teaching, passing on knowledge
  □ Making things (clothing, tackle, utensils)
  □ Planning the next season
  □ Hunting, ice fishing

1–5 YEARS

YEAR 1: SURVIVAL
  Get through it. The first harvest. Form a group. Do not die of infection

YEAR 2: STABILISATION
  Reliable food (a surplus, not hand to mouth). A cellar. Animals.
  Permanent housing. Electricity. Tools. Contact with neighbours

YEAR 3: EXPANSION
  Surplus → trade. A workshop. Specialisation. A school for the children.
  Fruit trees give their first crops. Crafts

YEAR 4: INFRASTRUCTURE
  A water wheel / wind turbine. A mill. A forge. Roads. Bridges.
  Regular trade. A market. Shared rules with the neighbours

YEAR 5: COMMUNITY
  Several settlements working together. Division of labour between them.
  A medical post. A school. A library. Written rules.
  The rebirth of simple industry (brick, lime, soap, cloth)

⭐ KEY INDICATORS OF SUCCESS BY YEAR:
  Year 1: people are not dying of diarrhoea
  Year 2: there is enough food, with a margin, until the next harvest
  Year 3: there is a surplus to trade
  Year 4: the children are learning to read and count
  Year 5: technology reproduces itself (tools are made, not merely found)

STAGE 43. DECISION TREES

Print this section separately. Under stress, thinking fails; a ready-made algorithm still works.

43.1. STAY OR EVACUATE

START

1. Is there an IMMEDIATE threat here?
   (fire, collapse, gas, CO, flooding, a chemical cloud)
      YES → LEAVE IMMEDIATELY (→ the "LEAVING" block)
      NO → item 2

2. Have 24 hours passed since the detonation?
      NO → What shelter do I have?
              PF > 10 (basement, car park, the core of a large building) → STAY
              PF ≈ 2 (timber house, car, tent) and there is
                 clearly better shelter ≤30 min on foot in a direction
                 AWAY from ground zero → MOVE QUICKLY
              Otherwise → STAY, move to the centre of the building, build up mass
      YES → item 3

3. Is there water here for the next 3+ days?
      NO → item 6 (plan an excursion for water, or relocation)
      YES → item 4

4. Is there food here for the next 7+ days?
      NO → item 6
      YES → item 5

5. Is the building structurally safe, and can it be heated/cooled
   for the season?
      NO → item 6
      YES → ⭐ STAY. Shelter + resources = the best position.
            Plan excursions, not relocation

6. Where would you go? Is there a SPECIFIC destination?
      NO → ⛔ DO NOT set off "somewhere". Reconnoitre first with a small party,
             then decide. Setting off into the unknown is a frequent cause of death
      YES → item 7

7. Checking the route:
      □ Is the distance realistic for the weakest person in the group?
      □ Is there water and shelter along the way?
      □ Is the radiation level along the route known (or at least the direction
        relative to ground zero and the wind)?
      □ Does the route avoid running ALONG the fallout plume (⭐ leave it ACROSS)?
      □ Can we carry everything we need?
      □ Is there a plan for what to do if things are bad when we arrive?
      All "yes" → GO
      Any "no" → fix the problem or STAY

THE "LEAVING" BLOCK (immediate):
   □ Take: water, first-aid kit, documents, torch, warm clothing, knife, two days' food
   □ Covering clothing, footwear, gloves, respirator, goggles
   □ Leave a note: where, when, who
   □ Go to the backup shelter by the shortest route
   □ Minimise the time outside

43.2. DO I HAVE A DOSIMETER

DO I HAVE A DOSIMETER?

NO → Act BY TIME AND BY RULES:
        □ Assume you are in the fallout zone if the detonation was within 30 km
          and/or the wind is from that direction
        □ Sit tight for at least 24 h, preferably 48–72 h
        □ All excursions short, against a list, with decontamination
        □ Only sealed food and water
        □ Listen to the airwaves
        □ ⭐ LOOK for a dosimeter as a priority resource
        □ ⛔ Do NOT trust your senses: radiation CANNOT be felt

YES → Do I know its UPPER MEASURING LIMIT?
        NO → ⛔ Find it in the manual OR treat the instrument as unreliable
               at high levels. Write the limit on the casing
        YES → Is it showing overload (OL / --- / a continuous tone)?
               YES → ⛔ LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. This is not "a fault"
               NO → Do the readings fall as you approach the source?
                      YES → ⛔ SATURATION. Back away immediately
                      NO → Are the readings within the scale?
                             YES → ⭐ Record: the value, the unit, the time,
                                   the place. Calculate the permissible time:
                                   minutes = 250 / (mSv/h) × 60
                             NO → Leave

⭐ THE KEY POINT: a dosimeter answers the question "HOW LONG CAN I SPEND
HERE", not "is it safe here".

43.3. CAN I DRINK THIS WATER

1. Is this water from SEALED factory packaging?
      YES → ✅ DRINK IT (wipe the neck)
      NO → item 2

2. Has the water been SEALED OFF from the outside since the detonation?
   (pipes in the house, the water heater, a cistern, a closed container indoors)
      YES → ✅ DRINK IT (disinfect it if you wish)
      NO → item 3

3. ⛔ Are there signs of CHEMICAL contamination?
   (a film on the surface, a smell of fuel/solvent/chemicals,
    an unusual colour, dead fish/animals nearby, foam,
    a source next to a filling station/factory/landfill)
      YES → ⛔ DO NOT DRINK IT IN ANY FORM.
            Boiling and filters will NOT help. Find another source
      NO → item 4

4. Is it SEA or SALT water?
      YES → ⛔ Do not drink. Distillation only
      NO → item 5

5. Was the water under the open sky during or after fallout?
      YES → ⚠️ Radioactive contamination is possible.
            □ Let it stand 12–24 h, decant the top, discard the sediment
            □ Filter it through cloth/sand/charcoal
            □ ⛔ Remember: boiling and chlorine do NOT remove radionuclides
            □ If you have a dosimeter, measure it (⚠️ a domestic one may not see it)
            □ If you have a choice, look for an enclosed source
            → then item 6
      NO → item 6

6. DISINFECTION (mandatory for any water that was not sealed):
      Cloudy? → first let it settle and filter it through cloth
      Then ONE of:
         • Boiling: a rolling boil for 1 minute (3 minutes above 2000 m)
         • Chlorine: 2 drops of 5–9 % bleach per litre, 30 minutes
                 (cloudy water — 4 drops)
         • Tablets: per the instructions
         • A 0.1–0.2 µm filter + chlorine (the filter does NOT remove viruses)
      → ✅ DRINK IT

⚠️ IF THE CHOICE IS BETWEEN "DRINK NOTHING AT ALL" AND "DRINK DOUBTFUL WATER":
   Dehydration kills in 3 days. An intestinal infection kills in 5–10 days,
   and you have a chance against it. Chemical poisoning can kill at once.
   → Microbiologically doubtful water: DRINK it (disinfected as best you can).
   → Chemically suspect water: ⛔ NO.

43.4. CAN I EAT THIS FOOD

1. Is the packaging SEALED and UNDAMAGED?
      YES → Is the tin bulging / leaking / badly rusted through?
              YES → ⛔ THROW IT AWAY (botulism)
              NO → Wipe the packaging with a damp cloth → ✅ EAT IT
      NO → item 2

2. Was the food under the open sky during fallout?
      YES → Can the outer layer / peel / casing be removed?
              YES → Remove it generously, wash it, ⚠️ eat with caution
              NO (leafy greens, berries, mushrooms) → ⛔ Do not eat it
      NO → item 3

3. Signs of spoilage?
   (a putrid/sour/ammoniacal smell, slime, mould,
    a change of colour, hissing on opening)
      YES → ⛔ THROW IT AWAY. ⭐ "When in doubt, throw it out" (USDA)
      NO → item 4

4. Is it perishable and has it been out of the cold for more than 2 hours
   (or 1 hour in heat above +32 °C)?
      YES → ⛔ Throw it away (meat, fish, dairy, eggs, cooked food)
      NO → item 5

5. Is it a MUSHROOM?
      YES → ⛔ DO NOT EAT IT unless you are an expert in that species.
            ⛔ And even then — not in a fallout zone (they concentrate caesium)
      NO → item 6

6. Is it an unfamiliar WILD plant or berry?
      YES → ⛔ DO NOT EAT IT. Hunger is slower than poison
      NO → item 7

7. Is it MILK from an animal that grazed after fallout?
      YES → ⛔ Do not drink it fresh for 2–3 months.
            ⚠️ Processing into hard cheese/butter lowers the caesium content
      NO → ✅ EAT IT (cooked through, if it is meat/fish/eggs)

43.5. IS THIS BUILDING SAFE

□ Cracks WIDER than 5 mm through LOAD-BEARING walls?    → ⛔ NO
□ Distorted door/window openings?                       → ⛔ NO
□ Sagging or deflection of the floor slabs?             → ⛔ NO
□ Walls out of plumb?                                   → ⛔ NO
□ Exposed deformed reinforcement, crumbling concrete?   → ⛔ NO
□ Cracking, creaking or falling material audible?       → ⛔ LEAVE IMMEDIATELY
□ Smell of gas?                                         → ⛔ No sparks, get out,
                                                           shut it off, ventilate
□ Signs of a severe fire in the structure?              → ⚠️ Strength is reduced
□ A flooded basement?                                   → ⚠️ Assess the electrical
                                                           hazard and settlement
□ Are there TWO exits?                                  → If not — ⚠️ a risk

All answers favourable → ✅ You can move in
   Then: shut off the gas, isolate damaged circuits,
   check the background, find water, site the latrine

43.6. CAN I GO OUTSIDE

1. Have 24 hours passed since the detonation?
      NO → Is there a vital reason?
              (water has run out, a critical medicine, someone is dying)
              NO → ⛔ DO NOT GO OUT
              YES → item 2, with maximum precautions
      YES → item 2

2. Do you have a dosimeter?
      YES → Measure outside. Calculate: minutes = 250/(mSv/h)×60.
            ⭐ Take A QUARTER of that time as your limit (a margin)
      NO → A 30-minute limit for the first day after going out is permitted,
            then it can be extended

3. Preparation (mandatory):
      □ The task list WRITTEN DOWN
      □ The route decided
      □ Covering, smooth clothing, hood, gloves, sturdy footwear
      □ FFP2/FFP3 respirator, safety goggles
      □ Overshoes or a change of footwear
      □ A watch, to keep track of the time
      □ A note left behind
      □ A partner or an observer

4. Rules outside:
      ⛔ Do not eat, drink, smoke or touch your face
      ⛔ Do not raise dust or rummage through rubbish unnecessarily
      ⛔ Do not sit or lie on the ground
      ⭐ Walk, do not run; breathe through your nose
      ⭐ Avoid puddles, downpipes, hollows, flat roofs
      ⭐ Watch the time

5. On return:
      □ FULL decontamination (STAGE 9)
      □ Record: time outside, readings, what was done, the dose

43.7. IS MEDICAL HELP NEEDED URGENTLY

IMMEDIATELY (minutes count):
  □ Not breathing / agonal breathing
  □ Blood spurting or rapidly soaking through clothing
  □ Unconscious and unresponsive
  □ Choking, unable to speak
  □ The chest "sucking" air through a wound
  □ Rapidly worsening breathlessness and blueness
  □ Anaphylaxis (swelling of the face/tongue, rash, breathlessness after a sting/drug/food)

URGENTLY (hours count):
  □ A burn over 10 % of body surface, or an airway burn
  □ An open fracture
  □ Suspected spinal or pelvic injury
  □ Severe abdominal pain with a rigid abdomen
  □ Confusion
  □ Temperature > 39 °C with chills and confusion (sepsis?)
  □ Red streaks running from a wound towards the body
  □ Has not passed urine for more than 8 hours
  □ Vomiting within the first hour after being outside (a high dose?)
  □ Severe hypothermia or heat stroke

CAN WAIT (hours to a day):
  □ A closed fracture with no deformity and no circulatory compromise
  □ Small wounds with no active bleeding
  □ A burn under 5 % of body surface, not on the face/hands/perineum
  □ Diarrhoea without blood and without severe dehydration
  □ Bruises, sprains

⭐ If there is no doctor at all: see STAGES 13 and 14. The priorities do not change —
   only what you are able to do about them.

43.8. STAY IN SHELTER DURING A FIRE

See the full tree in section **2.21**. In brief:

Fire/dense smoke in MY room, or the structure is collapsing,
or several people have headache and nausea at the same time (CO)?
    YES → ⛔ LEAVE IMMEDIATELY
    NO → Fire in the building, but not next to me?
            YES → isolate yourself (shut the door, plug the gaps with wet cloth),
                 check every 10 minutes.
                 Smoke coming in or the door hot → leave
            NO → Fire outside, wind blowing towards me?
                    YES → prepare to leave
                    NO → STAY, keep watching

⭐ PRINCIPLE: radiation kills over hours and days, fire and smoke over minutes.
   The faster threat wins.

43.9. SHOULD I MOVE TO BETTER SHELTER

1. What is the PF of my current shelter?
      > 10 (basement, car park, the core of a large building) → ⛔ STAY
      4–10 (a flat in a permanent building) → is there a basement in THIS building?
              YES → go down (it takes 2 minutes, zero risk)
              NO → STAY
      ≈ 2 (timber house, car, tent) → item 2

2. Do I know a SPECIFIC place with PF > 10?
      NO → ⛔ Do not set off blind. Stay, move to the centre of the structure,
             build up mass, wait
      YES → item 3

3. How long will I be outside?
      ≤ 30 minutes → item 4
      > 30 minutes → ⚠️ The gain is doubtful. Stay, unless there are other reasons

4. Direction of travel:
      AWAY from ground zero, or across the fallout plume → ✅ GO
      Towards ground zero, or along the plume downwind → ⛔ Find another option

5. Preparation before leaving:
      □ Covering clothing, respirator, goggles, gloves, footwear
      □ Water, first-aid kit, documents, torch
      □ The route known
      □ Walk fast, do not stop
      □ Decontamination on arrival

⭐ THE BASIS: FEMA PG 3rd ed. — moving from shelter with PF≈2
   to shelter with PF>10 is justified where the time outside is ≤30 minutes
   and the movement is away from ground zero.

STAGE 44. THE "WHAT TO LOOK FOR" TABLE

Item Priority Where to look What for Risks
Drinking water (bottled) ⭐⭐⭐ Shops, warehouses, offices (water coolers), vending machines, flats, pharmacies Life Looted first; weight
Water containers (jerrycans, churns, barrels) ⭐⭐⭐ Hardware and builders' merchants, garages, allotments, food factories Storage, transport ⚠️ Check what the container held. ⛔ Do not take chemical containers
Water disinfection agents (bleach, tablets, hypochlorite) ⭐⭐⭐ Hardware shops, swimming pools, water works, outdoor shops Safe water ⚠️ Do not take scented bleach; ⛔ do not mix with acids
Water filters (ceramic, hollow fibre, cartridges) ⭐⭐ Outdoor shops, hardware shops, water-cooler suppliers Purification A limited service life
Long-life food ⭐⭐⭐ Shops, warehouses, canteens, schools, military bases, allotments, cellars Life Looted; ⚠️ check for bulging
Salt ⭐⭐⭐ Shops, warehouses, canteens, road-salt depots (⚠️ technical grade — with additives) Physiology, preserving ⚠️ Technical salt may contain anti-caking agents and impurities
AM/FM/SW radio ⭐⭐⭐ Electronics shops, cars, flats, allotments Information
Dosimeter ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐ Fire stations, hospitals (radiology), laboratories, civil defence, emergency services, industrial plants, airports, customs, universities The only way to know about the danger ⚠️ Check the upper limit; batteries needed; ⛔ hospitals hold sources
Batteries, cells, power banks ⭐⭐⭐ Electronics shops, supermarkets, car shops, watch shops, toy shops Everything ⚠️ Check for leakage; ⛔ damaged Li-ion
Medicines ⭐⭐⭐ Pharmacies, hospitals, clinics, homes, veterinary surgeries, care homes Life ⚠️ Looted; ⛔ store and label them correctly
Bandages, dressings, antiseptics ⭐⭐⭐ Pharmacies, hospitals, fire stations, schools, workplaces (first-aid points), cars Injuries
Hand tools ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐ Builders' merchants, garages, workshops, allotments, factories, maintenance depots Everything Weight
Seed (open-pollinated!) ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐ Garden centres, allotments, farms, agricultural enterprises, grain elevators, grain stores, botanic gardens Food a year from now ⚠️ Tell F1 from open-pollinated; test germination
Books and handbooks ⭐⭐ ⭐ Libraries, universities, schools, bookshops, the homes of specialists, workplaces Knowledge Weight; damp; fire
Solar panels, controllers, inverters ⭐⭐ Electronics and solar shops, self-powered road signs, parking machines, weather stations, telecom base stations, allotments Power ⚠️ Fragile; weight; conspicuous on a roof
12 V batteries ⭐⭐ Car shops, garages, cars, UPS units in offices and server rooms, solar installations, forklifts Power Weight; ⚠️ acid; ⛔ short circuits
Fuel ⭐⭐ Filling stations (⚠️ the pumps do not work without power), cars, generator rooms, building sites, depots Heat, transport ⛔ Explosive; ⚠️ it ages
Warm clothing, footwear, sleeping bags ⭐⭐⭐ Clothing shops, outdoor shops, warehouses, flats, charity shops Life in winter Sizes
Respirators, gloves, goggles ⭐⭐ Builders' merchants, pharmacies, hospitals, factories, fire stations Protection
Rope, wire, tape, sheeting ⭐⭐ Builders' merchants, hardware shops, warehouses, ports Everything
Stoves, flue pipes ⭐⭐ Builders' merchants, allotments, garages, houses Heat Weight; ⛔ installing without a flue kills
Matches, lighters, fire steels ⭐⭐⭐ Shops, kiosks, flats Fire Keep them dry
Soap, detergents, hygiene items ⭐⭐⭐ Shops, hotels, hospitals, warehouses ⭐ Infections
Emergency toilet (buckets, absorbent) ⭐⭐ Hardware shops, pet shops, building sites (portable toilets) Sanitation
Paper maps, compass ⭐⭐ Bookshops, outdoor shops, schools, filling stations, military offices, surveying organisations Navigation
Multimeter, soldering iron, electronic components ⭐⭐ Electronics shops, workshops, factories, schools (physics rooms) Repairs
Handheld radios, antennas ⭐⭐ Communications shops, security firms, taxi depots, building sites, fire stations Communications ⚠️ Licensing is moot, but discipline is still needed
Spectacles by prescription ⭐⭐ Opticians, pharmacies ⭐ Ability to work Matching the prescription
Animal feed Pet shops, farms, warehouses Animals
Glass, jars, lids ⭐⭐ Shops, warehouses, allotments, cellars Food storage Fragility
Lubricants ⭐⭐ Garages, car shops, factories Machinery
Fixings (nails, screws, bolts) ⭐⭐ Builders' merchants, warehouses Repairs Weight
Metal (scrap, stock, pipe) Everywhere Level 5 of the technology tree Weight
Cash, precious metals, valuables for barter Exchange ⚠️ Their value is not obvious; food and tools are worth more

STAGE 45. THE "WHAT NOT TO DO" TABLE

Print this and put it on the wall. Every item is a real cause of death.

45.1. Fatal mistakes: radiation and shelter

⛔ Mistake Consequence
Leaving good shelter without dire need in the first 24 hours The dose rate outside in the first hours can be tens to hundreds of times higher than it is a day later. One walk can deliver a fatal dose
Looking at the flash or the mushroom cloud Retinal burn, blindness
Driving to fetch relatives through the fallout zone A car gives no protection (PF 1–2); the roads are jammed; you take the full dose and lose your shelter. ⭐ On FEMA's assessment, the leading preventable cause of death
Treating a car as shelter PF 1–2. FEMA is explicit: "not adequate shelter"
Hiding on the top floor or in the loft The fallout is lying on the roof directly above you
Going up on the roof "to look" The roof is the most contaminated place there is
Assuming a dosimeter with a low limit will tell the truth in a strong field ⛔ Saturation: the instrument will read LESS than the truth, down to zero
Ignoring an off-scale reading ("the instrument has broken") It is not a fault. It is a signal to leave immediately
Relying on a phone "dosimeter" app Its accuracy is unfit for life-and-death decisions
Applying the 7–10 rule to a nuclear plant accident The release composition is different; the decay is far slower; the release may continue for days
Deciding by how it feels ("I don't seem to feel any radiation") ⛔ Radiation cannot be felt
Refusing people shelter because they are "contaminated" It kills them and does you no good at all. Brushing them down and changing their clothes is enough
Sealing the shelter completely, with no air supply Death from CO2 accumulation
Blocking the only exit with sacks/furniture A trap in a fire
Piling earth onto an ordinary residential floor slab Collapse

45.2. Fatal mistakes: fire, gas, power

⛔ Mistake Consequence
Running a generator indoors, in a garage, in a basement, under a canopy ⛔ CO poisoning. One of the commonest causes of death after natural disasters. At least 6 m (20 ft) from the house, doors and windows
Burning charcoal/a barbecue indoors or in a tent ⛔ CO with no smell and no smoke. It kills you in your sleep
Heating with a gas hob or oven CO
Closing the stove damper while the embers are still glowing CO into the room
Heating with a paraffin heater without ventilation, especially while asleep CO
Connecting a generator to the house wiring through a socket It kills repair crews on the line; destroys the generator; causes fire
Storing petrol in a flat, a basement or on a balcony The vapour is heavier than air, flows along the floor, and explodes from a spark
Charging a swollen/damaged lithium battery Thermal runaway, a fire with toxic smoke
Using water on burning oil, live electrics or burning metals Explosive eruption, electrocution, intensified burning
Touching a downed cable or going near it ⛔ Step potential. Treat every cable as live
Working on a battery wearing rings and a watch Short circuit, burns, the battery exploding
Using an appliance without a fuse in a home-built system Fire
Charging a lead-acid battery in a closed room with no ventilation Hydrogen explosion

45.3. Fatal mistakes: water and food

⛔ Mistake Consequence
Drinking unknown open water Intestinal infections are the main cause of death in disasters
Drinking water with signs of chemical contamination ⛔ Boiling and filters do not help
Drinking sea water Accelerated dehydration, death
Drinking water from a heating system or a car radiator ⛔ Ethylene glycol is a lethal poison
Believing boiling removes radiation ⛔ Boiling concentrates radionuclides
Believing clear water is safe Pathogens, chemicals and radionuclides are invisible
Eating from a bulging tin ⛔ Botulism
Canning vegetables, meat or mushrooms in a boiling water bath ⛔ Botulism. Only a pressure canner at 116–121 °C
Eating unknown mushrooms ⛔ A single death cap kills. Symptoms appear at 6–24 hours, when the liver is already destroyed
Eating unknown plants and berries Poisoning. Hunger is slower than poison
Drinking fresh milk from animals in the fallout zone ⛔ The main route of I-131 and Sr-90 intake, especially dangerous for children
Eating leafy greens and mushrooms from the fallout zone Maximum accumulation
Economising on water in fever, diarrhoea or burns Accelerated death from dehydration
Treating bloody diarrhoea with loperamide Retention of the pathogen, toxic megacolon
Washing dishes and hands in water that waste drains into An epidemic
Siting a latrine closer than 30 m to a water source An epidemic

45.4. Fatal mistakes: medicine

⛔ Mistake Consequence
Taking KI as "protection from radiation" False security. It protects ONLY the thyroid and ONLY against radioiodine
Drinking alcoholic iodine solution ⛔ Poisonous. Gastrointestinal burns, death
Eating iodised salt instead of KI You would need kilograms of salt = a lethal dose of sodium
Exceeding 4 g of paracetamol a day ⛔ Irreversible liver failure
Combining several NSAIDs Gastrointestinal bleeding, kidney damage
Suturing a dirty wound, a bite, or a wound more than 6–12 hours old Abscess, sepsis, gas gangrene
Smearing a burn with oil, sour cream or toothpaste Heat retention, infection
Applying ice to a burn or to frostbite It deepens the damage
Rubbing a frostbitten area with snow Micro-trauma + further cooling
Periodically loosening a tourniquet Increased blood loss and a release of toxins
Quickly freeing someone pinned for more than an hour without first giving fluids ⛔ Crush syndrome, cardiac arrest
Giving alcohol in shock, hypothermia or blood loss Vasodilatation, faster loss of heat and blood
Attempting complex surgery without training The patient dies
Synthesising medicines yourself Poisoning, explosion
Stopping an antibiotic course when you feel better Relapse, resistance

45.5. Fatal mistakes: organisation and behaviour

⛔ Mistake Consequence
Setting off "somewhere" with no specific destination Death on the road
Relying on the car as the main plan The plan fails on the very first day
Not leaving a note when you go out The group loses a person and spends resources searching
Having no second exit from the shelter Fire = death
Keeping all the stores in one place One event destroys everything
Keeping no records Loss of knowledge, dosage errors, conflict
Working alone on a dangerous job Nobody to help
Ignoring sleep Mistakes, accidents, psychosis
Making strategic decisions hungry, tired and at night Bad decisions
Displaying your stores and your strength It attracts attention
Setting lethal traps Your own people, children and animals die
Firing "as a warning" It tells everyone in the area that there is something here worth defending
Entering a basement, cellar, well or silage pit without testing the air ⛔ CO2, H2S, methane. A regular cause of multiple deaths (the rescuers die next)
Entering chemical stores and works Poisoning
Picking up unknown substances and containers bearing the radiation symbol Death
Lying to the group about the situation Trust destroyed, the group falls apart
Relying on a cheap dosimeter alone A false sense of security
Putting off planting the garden and laying in firewood Hunger and cold six months later

STAGE 46. MYTHS


MYTH 1: "The whole Earth will become radioactive, so surviving is pointless"

WHY IT IS WRONG

Fallout is distributed unevenly — in elongated plumes downwind of surface bursts, not as a uniform layer over the planet. Vast areas will receive negligible contamination. The dose rate falls very fast: by more than 80 % in the first 24 hours; the 7–10 rule gives a thousandfold reduction in two weeks. According to FEMA, the dangerous fallout zone can shrink from 15–30 km to 2–3 km in a single day.

Real-world experience: Hiroshima and Nagasaki are populated modern cities. The area around Chernobyl is partly inhabited. Atmospheric testing (more than 500 detonations, hundreds of megatons in total) did not make the planet uninhabitable.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Shelter for 24–72 hours, then act. Your area will most likely become habitable, with restrictions. The long-term problem is not external exposure but contamination of the food chain with caesium and strontium, and that is dealt with by choosing your food and your farming methods (STAGE 24).


MYTH 2: "You can feel radiation"

WHY IT IS WRONG

Ionising radiation is not perceived by any sense organ. There is no smell, no taste, no pain, no tingling, no "metallic taste" (the last does occur with some chemical exposures, but it is not an indicator of radiation).

A lethal dose can be received with no sensation at all at the time. Symptoms appear minutes to hours later (nausea) or weeks later (suppression of blood cell production).

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Make decisions with an instrument or, if you have none, by time and by rules: assume the area is contaminated, stay in shelter, limit your excursions. ⭐ The absence of sensation is not proof of safety.


MYTH 3: "Alcohol protects against radiation"

WHY IT IS WRONG

There is no evidence that drinking alcohol reduces the dose or protects against radiation injury. The myth comes from a distorted notion of "radioprotectors" — real experimental agents (aminothiols, amifostine) which are given in clinical settings and have nothing to do with alcohol.

Alcohol, on the contrary, does harm in a disaster: * it dehydrates; * it disrupts thermoregulation (vasodilatation → faster cooling); * it degrades sleep quality; * it impairs judgement and coordination; * it deepens depression and aggression; * it worsens bleeding; * it is incompatible with a number of medicines (⛔ metronidazole — a dangerous reaction).

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Shelter, decontamination, clean water and food, sleep. Alcohol can be valuable as an antiseptic, a fuel and a barter item, but not as a medicine.


MYTH 4: "Potassium iodide protects against all radiation"

WHY IT IS WRONG

KI saturates the thyroid with stable iodine so that it does not take up the radioactive kind. It affects nothing else: * it does not protect against external gamma radiation; * it does not protect against caesium, strontium, plutonium or any other nuclide; * it neither prevents nor treats acute radiation syndrome; * it protects no organ other than the thyroid.

KI has contraindications and side effects. For people over 40, the FDA recommends it only at very high predicted thyroid doses.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Shelter (mass and distance) is what saves your life. KI is a useful supplement when radioiodine is released, taken at the dosages in STAGE 10. ⛔ And never substitute tincture of iodine or iodised salt for it.


MYTH 5: "Clear water is safe"

WHY IT IS WRONG

Clarity tells you only that there are no suspended particles. Perfectly clear water can contain: * cholera vibrio, salmonella, shigella (bacteria); * hepatitis A and E viruses, norovirus; * giardia cysts and cryptosporidium oocysts; * dissolved heavy metals (lead, arsenic, mercury); * petroleum products and solvents (which may leave no visible film); * dissolved radionuclides.

Cloudy water from a clean mountain stream may be safer than clear water from an industrial pond.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Judge the source, not the appearance (STAGE 11, decision tree 43.3). Disinfect any water that did not come sealed. Water suspected of chemical contamination: ⛔ do not use it at all.


MYTH 6: "Boiling removes radioactive contamination"

WHY IT IS WRONG

Boiling kills microorganisms by destroying their proteins. Radioactivity is a property of the atomic nucleus; it does not depend on temperature, pressure or chemical reactions.

Worse: as some of the water boils off, the radionuclides stay behind — their concentration rises.

The CDC's direct formulation: "You cannot make water that contains fuel, toxic chemicals or radioactive material safe by boiling or disinfecting it."

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

  • The priority is water that never came into contact with fallout (pipes, the water heater, sealed containers).
  • Settling and filtration remove the particles carrying radionuclides.
  • Dissolved radionuclides are removed only by reverse osmosis, distillation or ion exchange.
  • Use boiling for what it is for — killing microbes.

MYTH 7: "An irradiated person is dangerous to those around them"

WHY IT IS WRONG

External exposure does not make a person radioactive — just as an X-ray at the clinic does not turn a patient into a source of radiation. The only danger is the radioactive dust on them (contamination), which is removed by taking off their clothes and washing.

FEMA/LLNL recommend directly: if people who have been outside come to your shelter with particles on their clothing and hair, let them in. Decontamination is simple and quick.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Set up a "dirty zone" at the entrance: outer clothing and footwear off, bagged up, wipe-down/wash, clean clothes — and the person is in the shelter.


MYTH 8: "A respirator or gas mask will protect against radiation"

WHY IT IS WRONG

A respirator traps particles, reducing how many you inhale. Against gamma radiation — a stream of high-energy photons — fabric, rubber and filters are transparent. Only mass works against gamma.

Moreover, FEMA states directly: the external dose from fallout on the ground usually exceeds the inhalation dose by orders of magnitude. LLNL recommends not wasting time looking for a respirator, and getting inside as fast as possible.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Inside and down first. Put a respirator on if it is already to hand or if you are about to go outside. Improvised protection (cloth over the face) is better than nothing, but it is no substitute for shelter.


MYTH 9: "You must immediately run out of the city / into the countryside"

WHY IT IS WRONG

In the first hours after a surface burst, moving outdoors is the most dangerous thing you can do: * the dose rate is at its maximum precisely in those first hours; * in the street PF = 1, in a car PF = 1–2; * the direction of the fallout plume is unknown (⚠️ the winds aloft blow differently from those at the surface); * the roads are jammed, bridges may be destroyed; * you may drive into a more contaminated zone than the one you were in.

FEMA: "Early evacuation without adequate knowledge of the zones of greatest hazard, even from poor shelter, can be extremely dangerous."

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Shelter for 24 hours. Then evacuate deliberately: knowing the direction, the route and the destination, and moving across the plume, not along it.


MYTH 10: "The basement of an old house is a bomb shelter"

WHY IT IS WRONG

An ordinary basement protects well against fallout (PF 10–20 and above) — that is its real value. But it does not protect against: * a direct hit or the blast wave near ground zero; * the building collapsing on top of it; * fire in the building and above the basement; * carbon monoxide; * flooding.

In addition, a basement may have no ventilation, no water, no toilet and no second exit.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Use the basement for what it is good for — as a fallout shelter. And check in advance: a second exit, ventilation, water, dryness, no gas services, a fire extinguisher, the risk of flooding.


MYTH 11: "Food grown in contaminated soil is lethal forever"

WHY IT IS WRONG

The degree to which radionuclides transfer from soil into plants depends on the soil type, the crop and the farming method, and can differ by tens of times. The countermeasures applied after Chernobyl (potassium and calcium, organic matter, liming, deep ploughing, choice of crops, cleaning and culinary processing) reduced nuclide content in produce several-fold.

Different foods accumulate differently: mushrooms, forest berries, game and milk heavily; grain and peeled potatoes far less.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Apply the countermeasures in STAGE 24: potassium and calcium fertilisers, organic matter, liming; choose low-accumulating crops; wash and peel; measure where you can; ⛔ exclude mushrooms and game; vary your food sources.


MYTH 12: "Tinned food keeps forever; best-before dates are marketing"

WHY IT IS WRONG

Properly made and properly stored tinned food does indeed remain safe long past its date (though nutritional value and flavour decline). But: * acid products (tomatoes, fruit) eat into the can's seam over the years; * a high storage temperature accelerates spoilage; * rust, a dent on the seam, or bulging are signs that the seal has failed; * ⛔ a bulging tin may mean botulism and is lethal regardless of the date.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Store it cool and dry, rotate it, check tins for bulging and rust, and ⛔ throw away anything suspect. ⭐ "When in doubt, throw it out" (USDA).


MYTH 13: "What matters most is weapons and a stock of ammunition"

WHY IT IS WRONG

Disaster statistics show that the main causes of death are injuries, infections, dehydration, hypothermia, lack of medicines and hunger — not violence. Resources spent on an arsenal instead of water, a first-aid kit and knowledge are badly allocated.

Besides, conflict is a poor strategy in itself: a wound with no hospital is often fatal, and escalation destroys the possibility of cooperating with neighbours, which is what real long-term security actually is.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Priorities per STAGE 2.25: water → light → first-aid kit and skills → food → information → protection → power. Build security per STAGE 39: invisibility, observation, negotiation, withdrawal. ⭐ Neighbours are a resource, not a threat by default.


MYTH 14: "After a nuclear war there will be an endless nuclear winter and nothing will grow"

WHY IT IS WRONG

Confidence: low — this is an area where the sources disagree, and admitting that honestly matters more than giving a confident answer.

Climate models give a wide spread: from moderate cooling over 1–3 years to a significant multi-year fall in temperature and crop yields. The disagreement comes from different assumptions about the quantity of soot from urban fires, how high it is lofted into the stratosphere, and how long it takes to wash out. Some models are criticised for overstating the combustible mass and the efficiency with which soot is lofted.

No model predicts an eternal winter or the complete impossibility of agriculture.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Prepare for abnormally cold and short growing seasons over several years: * early-maturing and cold-tolerant varieties (potatoes, turnips, swedes, cabbage, barley, rye); * greenhouses, cold frames, fleece; * larger stores against a failed harvest year; * keeping seed for several years ahead; * keeping animals that can live on coarse fodder (goats, sheep).


MYTH 15: "The state/the army will come and sort everything out"

WHY IT IS WRONG

Even in ordinary regional disasters, organised help usually arrives after several days, not hours. In a large-scale nuclear war, command centres, communications, transport and depots will be destroyed or damaged, and the rescue services themselves will take losses and be constrained by radiation zones.

FEMA itself plans on the basis that the population must act on its own in the first hours, and builds its strategy on self-help and informing people in advance.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

Plan for complete autonomy for at least 2 weeks, and realistically for months. Listen to the airwaves and follow the authorities' instructions if there are any. Help, when it comes, will be a welcome addition, not the basis of your plan.


MYTH 16: "Having supplies is enough — skills are not needed"

WHY IT IS WRONG

Equipment without skill is useless or dangerous: * a dosimeter without an understanding of units and limits creates false confidence; * a first-aid kit is no use if you cannot apply a tourniquet; * a stove without an understanding of draught will kill you with carbon monoxide; * seed without agronomy gives no harvest; * a radio without a knowledge of antennas and communications discipline is useless; * a pressure canner without an understanding of the process will not protect you from botulism.

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD

⭐ Take a first-aid course. Run an exercise (2.23). Grow one season of vegetables. Build a solar system and use it. Live a weekend without electricity. Skill costs less than equipment and weighs nothing.


PART IX. QUALITY

THE OFFLINE-FIRST PRINCIPLE

This document was written on the assumption that the internet may disappear for good.

Therefore:

  • nowhere does it say "look it up on the website" in place of an explanation;
  • all vital data — dosages, algorithms, tables, calculations — are in the text itself;
  • the references in the bibliography are there for confirmation and checking now, while the internet exists, not as a substitute for content;
  • every formula is given in a form you can calculate on paper;
  • every decision tree is self-contained;
  • the sections "5 minutes", "MY PLAN", STAGES 4, 43 and 45 are suitable for printing separately.

Action for the reader: print this document now. An electronic copy with no electricity is useless.


CONFIDENCE LEVELS: A SUMMARY OF DISPUTED QUESTIONS

Question Confidence Reason for the disagreement
The "Get inside, stay inside, stay tuned" formula saves lives High Direct official FEMA/CDC recommendations, backed by LLNL modelling
The orders of magnitude of buildings' protection factors (PF) High FEMA/LLNL measurements and calculations
The PF of your specific building Low It depends on the construction, the floor, your position within it, and the surrounding buildings
The 7–10 rule and the t⁻¹·² law for fission products High Glasstone & Dolan, reproduced by FEMA. Accuracy ±25 % out to 2 weeks, a factor of 2 out to 6 months
Whether the 7–10 rule applies to a nuclear plant release High, that it does NOT apply A different nuclide composition, more long-lived species
KI dosages by age High (for FDA guidance) ⚠️ WHO and national authorities' thresholds and schedules differ
ARS thresholds (0.3 / 0.7 / 6 / 10 / 50 Gy) High CDC, consistent with IAEA/NCRP
LD50/60 Medium: a range of 2.5–5 Gy CDC gives 2.5–5 Gy; FEMA gives ~4 Gy (footnote: some sources 3.5 Gy). It depends on nursing care, age and concomitant injuries
Time to vomiting as an indicator of dose Medium A recognised field indicator (IAEA/REMM), but individual variation is wide; stress by itself causes vomiting
Removing outer clothing removes up to 90 % of contamination High CDC, Ready.gov
Boiling does not remove radionuclides High CDC, a direct formulation
Chlorine dosages for disinfecting water High CDC, with specific figures
Boiling time of 1 min (3 min above 2000 m) High CDC. ⚠️ A number of national guides recommend 3–10 min — that is a safety margin, not different science
Water requirements of 7.5 / 15 / 20 l/person/day High; the spread is explicable Different coverage: physiology versus physiology + hygiene + cooking (WHO, Sphere)
Threshold levels of radionuclides in food High for Codex; medium for national standards National standards differ several-fold because of different assumptions about the share of contaminated food in the diet
Halving thicknesses of materials Medium They depend on gamma energy; different manuals differ by 10–30 %; the simple calculation overstates the protection because of scattering
Pressure-canning requirements for low-acid foods High USDA/NCHFP/CDC — an unambiguous position
Caesium accumulation in mushrooms High Years of measurements across Europe after Chernobyl
The effectiveness of agronomic countermeasures (potassium, calcium, organic matter) High Applied and evaluated after Chernobyl (IAEA/FAO)
Medicine shelf life beyond the stated date Medium The SLEP programme showed retained potency for many preparations; ⚠️ there are significant exceptions
The survival of GNSS/GPS in a nuclear war Low It depends on military decisions, the state of the segments, and jamming
EMP effects of a surface burst on cars and household electronics Low FEMA openly acknowledges that the effect is "poorly understood"
The effectiveness of improvised EMP shielding for electronics Low It cannot be tested under domestic conditions
"Nuclear winter": scale and duration Low The models disagree: from moderate cooling over 1–3 years to a significant multi-year effect. The reason is different assumptions about soot mass and lofting height
Crop calories per m² Low for the numbers, high for the ordering The figures are for low-input cultivation; the spread is several-fold
Tourniquets in crush syndrome Medium (contested) The tactic is debated in the literature; only early, copious hydration is beyond dispute
Folk weather signs Medium/low They work statistically but are unreliable in any single case
Bodies of trauma victims do not create an epidemic threat High The consistent WHO/PAHO position
Welding from car batteries Medium It works physically, but most sources assess the risk as high

RED TEAM REPORT

The document was audited from four perspectives. Below is what each role looked for, what it found, and what was corrected.


Role 1. Radiation protection specialist

What was checked

Doses, dose rates, units, the properties of fallout, activity decay, instrument behaviour, decontamination, KI, radiation sources.

Problems found

Problem Severity Status
R1 In section 2.5, the attenuation arithmetic for a 45 cm brick wall was wrong (32-fold stated, ≈100-fold by calculation) Medium (an understatement — erring on the safe side, but it undermines trust in the calculations) ✅ Corrected
R2 The "halving layers" calculation was given without a correction for scattered radiation (buildup), so the reader could overestimate the protection of an improvised shield High — it directly creates a false sense of security ✅ Corrected: a warning added in 2.5 and in the STAGE 6 table
R3 An arithmetic error in the decay example (STAGE 8): 6⁻¹·² = 0.1165, not 0.1035; the resulting dose is 3.6 mSv, not 4.0 mSv Medium ✅ Corrected
R4 The number "250 mSv" in the permissible-time formula could be read as a "safe dose" or a personal budget High ✅ Corrected: an explicit warning block added, stating that this is a limit for rescuers going to save lives, not a standard
R5 The universal "you have 10–15 minutes before fallout" does not apply near ground zero High — it could prompt movement where there is no time for it ✅ Corrected: a table of real fallout arrival times by zone added
R6 Geiger counter saturation (fold-back) — it was described, and judged adequate Left unchanged, emphasis strengthened
R7 The applicability of the 7–10 rule to nuclear plants — it was correctly ruled out Unchanged
R8 There was no section on radiation risk to the foetus High — a missed risk group ✅ Corrected: section 13.16 added

Not remedied (a limitation, not an error)

  • It is impossible to give the reader a reliable estimate of the PF of their particular building without measurements. The document says so honestly.
  • Domestic dosimeters are fundamentally incapable of measuring food contamination levels (hundreds of Bq/kg). This is stated.

Role 2. Emergency physician

What was checked

Priorities of care, drug dosages, mistakes, contraindications, missed risk groups, unachievable instructions.

Problems found

Problem Severity Status
M1 There was no section at all on pregnancy, infants and the chronically ill High ✅ Corrected: section 13.16 added with separate recommendations, including restrictions on KI and antibiotics in pregnancy
M2 There was no warning that the abrupt withdrawal of a number of medicines (anticonvulsants, beta blockers, steroids, antipsychotics, benzodiazepines) is itself life-threatening High ✅ Corrected in 13.16
M3 It did not state that breastfeeding should be continued where water is contaminated — a typical and lethal mistake (switching to formula made up with dirty water) High ✅ Corrected in 13.16
M4 The "maximum 4 g of paracetamol" formula without stating the risk — checked, the risk is stated Unchanged
M5 The claim that urine is "almost sterile" (in the sanitation and fertiliser sections) is wrong and could lead to careless handling Medium ✅ Corrected in both places
M6 The instructions on CPR, tourniquets, wound packing and burns were checked against current protocols (MARCH, ABC) Unchanged
M7 Dialysis patients: the document did not give an honest answer Medium ✅ Corrected: an honest statement added along with palliative measures (restricting potassium and fluids)
M8 The section on amputations correctly declines to teach the procedure Unchanged
M9 Opioid and alcohol withdrawal syndrome (potentially fatal) was not mentioned Medium ✅ Corrected in 13.16

Deliberately not included

  • Techniques for surgery, intubation, chest drainage and intravenous access — they cannot be taught from a text and doing so is dangerous.
  • Specific antibiotic regimens by diagnosis — they require diagnosis and a physician; the document confines itself to naming the classes and their limitations.

Role 3. Engineer (structures, fire, electrics, chemistry)

What was checked

Loads, ventilation, fire safety, electrical parameters, chemical hazards, structurally unachievable advice.

Problems found

Problem Severity Status
E1 The recommendation to "test the cellar with a candle" — ⛔ where methane is present, a naked flame causes an explosion, and a candle does not detect hydrogen sulphide Critical — the advice could kill ✅ Corrected: replaced with a full entry protocol, banning candles in silage pits and cesspits, and warning that rescuers die
E2 A contradiction in the fire instructions: "move crouched… but do NOT crawl along the floor" — the reader could stay in the smoke at head height High ✅ Corrected in two places: in a fire, stay 30–60 cm above the floor; the caveat about heavy gases moved to chemical releases
E3 Welding from car batteries in series was presented as a workable technique with a mild caveat High — risk of battery explosion and acid spray ✅ Corrected: moved into a separate warning block
E4 There were no rules for connecting batteries (in parallel/series, different types and ages) High — a frequent cause of fires in home-built systems ✅ Corrected in STAGE 18
E5 There was no electrical safety guidance for photovoltaic systems: the panel is always live, a DC arc does not extinguish, the order of connection High ✅ Corrected: section 36.3a added
E6 Slab loading when piling earth — checked, the limit is stated with a margin Unchanged
E7 The ban on backfeeding the grid — present and correct Unchanged
E8 The 6 m / 20 ft generator distance — matches CPSC/CDC Unchanged
E9 Ventilation requirements when sealing a shelter — present and separated by context (during fallout / afterwards) Unchanged
E10 Cable cross-sections for 12 V — given with a margin, marked as medium confidence Unchanged

Role 4. Off-grid systems specialist

What was checked

Whether the calculations are achievable, bottlenecks, resource degradation, false promises of autonomy, geographical specificity.

Problems found

Problem Severity Status
A1 The kcal/m² yields could be read as achievable in post-apocalyptic conditions, although they are closer to industrial ones Medium ✅ Corrected: it is now stated explicitly that the figures are for low-input cultivation without fertiliser or machinery
A2 Solar system: sizing for summer would give a system useless in winter High Already accounted for — the calculation is done for winter; the emphasis was strengthened
A3 Batteries as the main bottleneck of the whole off-grid approach (3–15 years) — it was stated; checked that the conclusion reaches the reader Unchanged
A4 "Nuclear winter" and its effect on solar output and agriculture — the risk of presenting a contested model as fact Medium Unchanged: already marked Confidence: low, with a range given and the reason the models disagree
A5 Geographical specificity: warning systems, KI availability, frequencies and storage rules differ between countries Medium Unchanged: flagged in the document's limitations and in the relevant sections
A6 The water wheel and wind turbine power calculations — checked arithmetically, correct Unchanged
A7 The antenna length formulas — checked, correct Unchanged
A8 The risk of "false autonomy": the shopping list could create the impression that equipment replaces skill Medium Unchanged: MYTH 16 and section 2.24 address this directly

CONSOLIDATED LIST OF CORRECTIONS AFTER THE RED TEAM

Section What was corrected Category
1 2.5 The attenuation arithmetic for 45 cm of brick corrected (32× → ≈100×) Wrong number
2 2.5 A warning added about scattered radiation (buildup): the simple calculation overstates protection by a factor of 2–5 False sense of security
3 STAGE 6 A warning added not to recompute the tabulated PF values "by formula" False sense of security
4 STAGE 4 The body orientation when dropping was made consistent (feet towards the flash), with the caveat "if there is no time, just lie down" Contradiction
5 STAGE 7 A block added: 250 mSv is not a safe dose but a limit for rescuers; for everyday decisions use values 10–50 times smaller ⛔ False sense of security
6 STAGE 8 The example's arithmetic corrected (6⁻¹·² = 0.1165; dose 3.6 mSv instead of 4.0 mSv) Wrong number
7 STAGE 8 A table of real fallout arrival times by zone added, replacing the universal "10–15 minutes" ⛔ Geographically/situationally specific advice presented as universal
8 STAGE 13 New section 13.16 added: pregnancy, infants, the chronically ill, withdrawal syndromes, dialysis ⛔ Missed risk
9 STAGES 15 and 24 The claim that urine is "sterile" removed (in two places) Incorrect statement
10 STAGE 18 Rules for connecting batteries added ⛔ Missed risk (fire)
11 STAGE 24 Clarified that the yields are for low-input cultivation Unachievable instruction
12 STAGE 26 ⛔ The dangerous "test the cellar with a candle" recommendation replaced with a full entry protocol (methane → explosion; hydrogen sulphide is not detected; rescuers die) Dangerous advice
13 2.21 and STAGE 29 The contradiction about behaviour in a fire resolved: stay 30–60 cm above the floor; the caveat about heavy gases moved to chemical releases ⛔ Contradiction / dangerous advice
14 STAGE 34 The warning about welding from car batteries strengthened (battery explosion, acid) Dangerous advice
15 STAGE 36 Section 36.3a added: electrical safety of photovoltaic systems ⛔ Missed risk
16 General A stray character that had got into the text during editing was removed Text defect

Total: 16 corrections, of which 8 are in the category "dangerous advice / false sense of security / missed lethal risk".


CHECKING THE NUMBERS

Every numerical statement was checked by category. The results:

Category Checked Corrected Note
Doses (Gy, Sv, mSv) ARS thresholds, LD50/60, PAGs, ICRP limits, KI thresholds Ranges are given where the sources disagree (LD50/60 = 2.5–5 Gy)
Dose rates The DF zone boundary of 10 R/h, the hot zone at 0.01 R/h, the permissible-time calculation ✅ 1 (the 250 mSv context) All R/h ↔ mSv/h conversions recalculated
Units Bq, Gy, Sv, rem, rad, R, prefixes The relationships were verified: 1 Gy = 100 rad, 1 Sv = 100 rem, 1 R ≈ 1 rem ≈ 10 mSv (gamma, whole body)
Dose-rate decay The 7–10 rule, t⁻¹·², the Glasstone & Dolan table ✅ 1 (the example's arithmetic) The table is reproduced from FEMA unchanged
Percentages 90 % from removing clothing, >80 % decay in 24 hours, ARS survival fractions They match the sources
Temperatures Boiling, pressure canning (116–121 °C), pasteurisation (63 °C/30 min, 72 °C/15 s), hypothermia, heat colours, meat drying (71 °C) Consistent with CDC/USDA
Shelf lives Storage of seed, food, fuel, medicines, batteries Marked as medium confidence where the spread is wide
Concentrations Chlorination (2 drops/l for 5–9 %), ORS (6 tsp sugar + 0.5 tsp salt per litre), calcium hypochlorite, Codex Bq/kg, CO in ppm Checked against CDC/WHO/Codex
Medical values KI by age, paracetamol 4 g/day, the rule of nines, hypothermia stages, ORS by age Consistent with FDA/CDC/WHO
Electrical parameters The formulas P=UI, E=Ah×V, depth of discharge, lead-acid battery voltages, cable cross-sections, the solar system calculation The arithmetic was re-checked
Mechanics and energy Water wheel power (7000·Q·H), wind turbine power (0.5ρAv³Cp), antenna lengths (143/f, 71.5/f) Every example recalculated; they agree
Storage Fridge 4 h, freezer 48/24 h, the 2-hour rule USDA

Numbers that were removed or replaced by a range

What Why
The exact value of LD50/60 The sources disagree → a range of 2.5–5 Gy is given, with the reason stated
The exact PF of a particular building It cannot be reliably estimated → ranges are given, marked as low confidence
Exact halving-thickness values A 10–30 % spread between manuals → marked as indicative + a correction for scattering
Exact kcal/m² by crop A several-fold spread → marked Confidence: low + the basis of the calculation stated
The scale of "nuclear winter" The models disagree → a range is given and the reason explained
The scale of EMP damage to household equipment FEMA acknowledges the question is poorly understood → no numerical estimates are given
The exact shelf life of medicines beyond the date It depends on the preparation and the storage → a qualitative answer and a list of exceptions are given

SOURCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY

Access date for all internet sources: 11 September 2026.

Notation: * ⭐ — the source was checked directly while preparing the document (the text was downloaded and read); * ○ — a generally recognised reference source, used as a basis but not downloaded during preparation.


RADIATION (radiation, fallout, dosimetry, protection)

# Organisation Title Year URL
1 ⭐ FEMA (USA) Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation, Third Edition 2022 https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_nuc-detonation-planning-guide.pdf
2 ⭐ FEMA / LLNL (B. Buddemeier) PrepTalks Discussion Guide: Saving Lives After a Nuclear Detonation 2018 https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_preptalks_buddemeier_discussion-guide.pdf
3 ⭐ Ready.gov (DHS/FEMA) Nuclear Explosion https://www.ready.gov/nuclear-explosion
4 ⭐ CDC Acute Radiation Syndrome: Information for Clinicians https://www.cdc.gov/radiation-emergencies/hcp/clinical-guidance/ars.html
5 ⭐ CDC How to Self-Decontaminate after a Radiation Emergency https://www.cdc.gov/radiation-emergencies/prevention/self-decontaminate.html
6 ⭐ CDC Decontamination for Yourself and Others (infographic) https://www.cdc.gov/radiation-emergencies/media/pdfs/infographics/Infographic_Decontamination.pdf
7 ○ CDC Frequently Asked Questions about Radiation Emergencies https://www.cdc.gov/radiation-emergencies/faq/index.html
8 ○ CDC Clinical Guidance for Determining Deaths from a Radiation Emergency https://www.cdc.gov/radiation-emergencies/hcp/clinical-guidance/determining-deaths.html
9 ○ CDC Safety Guidelines: Decontamination of Radioactive Material https://www.cdc.gov/radiation-health/safety/decontamination.html
10 ⭐ HHS / REMM Potassium Iodide (KI) — Radiation Emergency Medical Management https://remm.hhs.gov/potassiumiodide.htm
11 ○ HHS / REMM Procedures for Radiation Decontamination https://remm.hhs.gov/ext_contamination.htm
12 ○ HHS / REMM Protective Actions and Protective Action Guides https://remm.hhs.gov/pag.htm
13 ⭐ EPA PAG Manual: Protective Action Guides and Planning Guidance for Radiological Incidents 2017 https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2017-01/documents/epa_pag_manual_final_revisions_01-11-2017_cover_disclaimer_8.pdf
14 ○ EPA Protective Action Guides (PAGs) https://www.epa.gov/radiation/protective-action-guides-pags
15 ○ DHS Health and Safety Planning Guide for Protecting Responders Following a Nuclear Detonation https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/IND%20Health%20Safety%20Planners%20Guide%20Final.pdf
16 ○ FEMA Nuclear Detonation Response Guidance: Planning for the First 72 Hours https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_oet-72-hour-nuclear-detonation-response-guidance.pdf
17 ○ S. Glasstone, P. J. Dolan (DOD/DOE) The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 3rd ed. 1977 Cited via FEMA PG 3rd ed. (decay table 1.4)
18 ○ K. Way, E. P. Wigner The Rate of Decay of Fission Products (the t⁻¹·² law) 1948 Physical Review 73, 1318
19 ○ ICRP Publication 103: Recommendations of the ICRP 2007 https://www.icrp.org/publication.asp?id=ICRP%20Publication%20103
20 ○ ICRP Publication 109: Application of the Commission's Recommendations for the Protection of People in Emergency Exposure Situations 2009 https://www.icrp.org/publication.asp?id=icrp+publication+109
21 ⭐ ISO / IAEA ISO 21482:2007 — Ionizing-radiation warning: Supplementary symbol 2007 https://www.iso.org/standard/40264.html
22 ⭐ IAEA New Symbol Launched to Warn Public About Radiation Dangers 2007 https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/new-symbol-launched-warn-public-about-radiation-dangers
23 ○ IAEA Radiation warning symbols (Portable Digital Assistant for First Responders) https://www-pub.iaea.org/mtcd/publications/pdf/epr-first_res-pda/html/ti1-rad-symbols.htm
24 ⭐ Radioprotection (EDP Sciences) The properties and health hazards from early nuclear weapon fallout: the Castle Bravo incident revisited 2022 https://www.radioprotection.org/articles/radiopro/full_html/2022/04/radiopro220024/radiopro220024.html
25 ○ Health Physics Dose Estimation for Exposure to Radioactive Fallout from Nuclear Detonations 2021 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8677604/
26 ○ NCRP Report No. 165 / Report No. 179 (response and emergency dosimetry) 2010 / 2017 Cited via FEMA PG 3rd ed.
27 ○ UNSCEAR Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation (natural background ~2.4 mSv/year) 2008 https://www.unscear.org/
28 ○ OSHA Radiation Emergency Preparedness and Response — Additional Resources https://www.osha.gov/emergency-preparedness/radiation/resources

MEDICINE (medicine, first aid, pharmacology)

# Organisation Title Year URL
29 ⭐ FDA Guidance: Potassium Iodide as a Thyroid Blocking Agent in Radiation Emergencies 2001 https://www.fda.gov/media/72510/download
30 ⭐ FDA Frequently Asked Questions on Potassium Iodide (KI) https://www.fda.gov/drugs/bioterrorism-and-drug-preparedness/frequently-asked-questions-potassium-iodide-ki
31 ○ FDA Potassium Iodide (KI) in Radiation Emergencies — Questions and Answers https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/potassium-iodide-ki-radiation-emergencies-questions-and-answers
32 ○ CDC Potassium Iodide (KI) — Radiation Emergencies https://www.cdc.gov/radiation-emergencies/treatment/potassium-iodide.html
33 ○ WHO Model List of Essential Medicines 2023 https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-MHP-HPS-EML-2023.02
34 ○ WHO Psychological First Aid: Guide for Field Workers 2011 https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241548205
35 ○ WHO / UNICEF Oral Rehydration Salts: production of the new ORS 2006 https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-FCH-CAH-06.1
36 ○ Hesperian Health Guides Where There Is No Doctor (D. Werner) rev. 2021 https://hesperian.org/books-and-resources/
37 ○ Hesperian Health Guides Where Women Have No Doctor; Where There Is No Dentist https://hesperian.org/books-and-resources/
38 ○ American Red Cross First Aid / CPR / AED Participant's Manual rev. 2021 https://www.redcross.org/take-a-class/first-aid
39 ○ CoTCCC / TECC Tactical Combat Casualty Care Guidelines (the MARCH protocol) rev. 2023 https://deployedmedicine.com/
40 ○ CDC Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Basics https://www.cdc.gov/carbon-monoxide/about/index.html
41 ○ US DoD / FDA Shelf Life Extension Program (SLEP) — drug stability beyond the expiry date 2006 Lyon R.C. et al., J Pharm Sci 95(7):1549–1560

WATER

# Organisation Title Year URL
42 ⭐ CDC Making Water Safe in an Emergency https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/emergency/making-water-safe.html
43 ○ CDC Personal Preparation and Storage of Safe Water https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/emergency/
44 ⭐ EPA Radionuclides in Drinking Water: A Small Entity Compliance Guide 2002 https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-06/documents/compliance-radionuclidesindw.pdf
45 ⭐ EPA Overview of Drinking Water Treatment Technologies https://www.epa.gov/sdwa/overview-drinking-water-treatment-technologies
46 ⭐ WHO / WEDC Technical Notes on Drinking-Water, Sanitation and Hygiene in Emergencies No. 9: How much water is needed in emergencies 2013 https://wedc-knowledge.lboro.ac.uk/resources/e/mn/039-How-much-water-is-needed-in-emergencies.pdf
47 ○ Sphere Association The Sphere Handbook: Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response (WASH Standard 2.1) 2018 https://spherestandards.org/handbook/
48 ○ WHO Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, 4th ed. incl. 1st addendum 2017 https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241549950
49 ○ EAWAG/SANDEC SODIS — Solar Water Disinfection Manual https://www.sodis.ch/

FOOD (food, storage, preserving)

# Organisation Title Year URL
50 ⭐ FAO / WHO Codex Alimentarius Fact Sheet on Codex Guideline Levels for Radionuclides in Foods Contaminated Following a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency (CODEX STAN 193-1995) 2011 https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/agns/pdf/codex_guideline_for_radionuclitide_contaminated_food.pdf
51 ○ FDA Supporting Document for Guidance Levels for Radionuclides in Domestic and Imported Foods 2005 https://www.fda.gov/food/process-contaminants-food/supporting-document-guidance-levels-radionuclides-domestic-and-imported-foods
52 ⭐ CDC Home-Canned Foods — Botulism https://www.cdc.gov/botulism/prevention/home-canned-foods.html
53 ⭐ USDA FSIS Clostridium botulinum & Botulism https://www.fsis.usda.gov/food-safety/foodborne-illness-and-disease/illnesses-and-pathogens/botulism
54 ⭐ NCHFP (University of Georgia) / USDA Complete Guide to Home Canning, Guide 1: Principles of Home Canning rev. 2015 https://nchfp.uga.edu/papers/guide/GUIDE01_HomeCan_rev0715.pdf
55 ⭐ NCHFP Ensuring Safe Canned Foods https://nchfp.uga.edu/how/can/general-information/ensuring-safe-canned-foods/
56 ○ USDA FSIS Food Safety During Power Outage (the 4 h / 48 h / 24 h rule) https://www.fsis.usda.gov/food-safety/safe-food-handling-and-preparation/food-safety-basics/food-safety-during-power-outage
57 ○ IAEA TECDOC-1788: Criteria for Radionuclide Activity Concentrations for Food and Drinking Water 2016 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/TE-1788_web.pdf

AGRICULTURE (agriculture, soil, animals)

# Organisation Title Year URL
58 ○ IAEA / FAO Guidelines for Agricultural Countermeasures Following an Accidental Release of Radionuclides (TRS 363) 1994 https://www.iaea.org/publications
59 ○ IAEA Environmental Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident and their Remediation: Twenty Years of Experience 2006 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1239_web.pdf
60 ○ FAO Save and Grow: A policymaker's guide to sustainable intensification of smallholder crop production 2011 https://www.fao.org/publications
61 ○ USDA / Cooperative Extension Seed storage and viability; Harrington's rule https://extension.org/
62 ○ FAO Keeping livestock healthy: smallholder guides https://www.fao.org/publications

ENGINEERING (structures, fire, chemistry, tools)

# Organisation Title Year URL
63 ⭐ CPSC (USA) What to Know About Portable Generators and Carbon Monoxide 2022 https://www.cpsc.gov/s3fs-public/468-WhattoKnowGenerators_2022.pdf
64 ⭐ CDC Generator Safety Fact Sheet / Keep Your Generator Outside https://www.cdc.gov/carbon-monoxide/factsheets/generator-safety-fact-sheet.html
65 ○ NIOSH Pocket Guide to Chemical Hazards (CO, H2S, NH3, Cl2) rev. 2019 https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npg/
66 ○ NIOSH Criteria for a Recommended Standard: Working in Confined Spaces 1979 / rev. https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/80-106/
67 ○ NFPA NFPA 704: Standard System for the Identification of the Hazards of Materials for Emergency Response rev. 2022 https://www.nfpa.org/codes-and-standards
68 ○ UNECE ADR: European Agreement concerning the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road (hazard codes, UN numbers) rev. 2023 https://unece.org/transport/dangerous-goods
69 ○ UN Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (GHS), Rev. 10 2023 https://unece.org/transport/dangerous-goods/ghs-rev10-2023
70 ○ OSHA Asbestos / Lead standards and guidance https://www.osha.gov/asbestos

ENERGY (energy, electricity, solar, water, wind)

# Organisation Title Year URL
71 ○ NREL (USA) PVWatts Calculator / Solar Resource Data (peak sun hours) https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/
72 ○ NREL Best Research-Cell Efficiency Chart; PV degradation rates rev. 2024 https://www.nrel.gov/pv/cell-efficiency.html
73 ○ IEC IEC 62109 / IEC 60364-7-712 — safety of photovoltaic systems rev. https://www.iec.ch/
74 ○ Betz / classical aerodynamics The Betz limit (Cp max = 16/27 ≈ 0.593) 1919 A classical result
75 ○ ESHA / EU Guide on How to Develop a Small Hydropower Plant 2004 https://energypedia.info/
76 ○ Practical Action Micro-hydro power, wind pumps, hydraulic ram pumps (technical briefs) https://practicalaction.org/knowledge-centre/

COMMUNICATIONS (communications, navigation)

# Organisation Title Year URL
77 ○ ARRL The ARRL Handbook for Radio Communications rev. annually https://www.arrl.org/arrl-handbook
78 ○ ITU Radio Regulations (band allocations) 2020 https://www.itu.int/pub/R-REG-RR
79 ○ NOAA / NWS NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards (frequencies 162.400–162.550 MHz) https://www.weather.gov/nwr/
80 ○ FEMA Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS) / Emergency Alert System https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/integrated-public-alert-warning-system
81 ○ USGS Topographic Maps and The National Map; magnetic declination (NOAA NCEI) https://www.usgs.gov/programs/national-geospatial-program/topographic-maps
82 ○ NOAA NCEI World Magnetic Model (magnetic declination) 2025 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/world-magnetic-model

SANITATION (sanitation, waste, hygiene)

# Organisation Title Year URL
83 ○ WHO Guidelines on Sanitation and Health 2018 https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241514705
84 ○ WHO Excreta disposal in emergencies: a field manual 2007 https://www.who.int/publications
85 ○ Sphere Association Sphere Handbook, WASH: Excreta Management Standards 2018 https://spherestandards.org/handbook/
86 ○ WHO / PAHO Management of Dead Bodies after Disasters: A Field Manual for First Responders rev. 2016 https://www.paho.org/en/documents/management-dead-bodies-after-disasters-field-manual-first-responders
87 ○ CDC Handwashing: Clean Hands Save Lives https://www.cdc.gov/clean-hands/
88 ○ CDC Rodent Control / Hantavirus cleanup guidance https://www.cdc.gov/rodents/

CLIMATE (climatic consequences — a contested area)

# Organisation / author Title Year Note
89 ○ Robock, Toon et al. Work on modelling the climatic consequences of nuclear war 2007–2022 Estimates at the upper end of the range
90 ○ Reisner et al. (LANL) Critical work on estimating soot lofting from urban fires 2018–2019 Estimates at the lower end of the range
91 ○ NOAA / NCAR Atmospheric aerosol transport models Confidence: low for the overall conclusion

Total sources in the bibliography: 91. Of these, checked directly during preparation (⭐): 24.


CONCLUSION

If, after this file was created, the internet, state infrastructure, hospitals and familiar services disappear, this document should take a person along the following chain:

PREPARE IN ADVANCE     (PART I — the shelter map, the plan, the kits)
        ↓
SURVIVE THE STRIKE     (STAGES 4–5 — the first 60 seconds and the first hour)
        ↓
SURVIVE THE FALLOUT    (STAGES 6–10 — shelter, time, distance, shielding)
        ↓
STABILISE THE          (STAGES 11–21 — water, food, medicine, sanitation,
BASIC SYSTEMS           warmth, power, communications)
        ↓
BUILD A SELF-          (STAGES 22–28, 37–40 — resources, land, animals,
SUFFICIENT SETTLEMENT   the group, rules, the mind)
        ↓
REBUILD                (STAGES 33–36 — levels 0–7, mechanics, energy)
TECHNOLOGY
        ↓
PRESERVE KNOWLEDGE FOR (STAGE 32 — the library, teaching, apprenticeship)
THE NEXT GENERATION

Three things worth remembering if everything else is forgotten

  1. GET INSIDE. STAY INSIDE. STAY TUNED. Mass and distance are the only things that protect you from gamma radiation. A day in a basement saves your life.

  2. WATER, HANDS, LATRINE. After the first day the main killer is not radiation but intestinal infection. Soap and a properly sited latrine have saved more lives in human history than any medicine.

  3. KNOWLEDGE AND PEOPLE. Equipment runs out; knowledge does not. A person alone does not survive for long. Find people, agree the rules in advance, and teach the children to read.


END OF DOCUMENT

Version 1.0 · 11 September 2026 · After a red-team audit (16 corrections)

This document can and should be copied, printed, distributed and added to. Check the numbers. Write in the local detail: your shelters, your water sources, your climate, your plants, your people. A document without local knowledge is half a document.